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Where is the AI jobs crisis?

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Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#11

Post by alephnerd »

Exactly.

Much of the "AI job crisis" rhetoric was PR comms to manage conversations around corporate restructuring (even ZIRP is a lazy PR comms excuse).

Most decisionmakers by 2025 already agreed they didn't expect AI to have a significant impact on hiring [0].

I've pointed out the reasons ad nauseum on here but no one listens [1].

[0] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-10/wall-stre...

[1] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47174561

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#17

Post by rootusrootus »

Maybe AI will finally be the tool that allows us to get rid of some of the people we have who do nothing more than push paper around. Maybe. But somehow I doubt it, at least not in a typical big corporate environment. And I have zero concern about us letting actual software devs go. Things will have to change pretty dramatically before we get that far.

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#18

Post by ams92 »

I wonder when we’ll reach diminishing returns on new AI models. Haven’t tried Mythos or Fable yet but it seems like Anthropic is already priming itself for this by calling for a “slowdown” of AI development.

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#19

Post by JumpCrisscross »

BaconPackets wrote: post #3

I'll need to look at the underlying data, but it seems that the job "classification/category" should be more important than the raw number. A boost in lower paid/service industry jobs does not mean that there wasn't a loss in a category where AI can be more easily dropped into existing businesses. Data : https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Average weekly and hourly earnings were up in May [1], though “real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.5 percent from March to April, seasonally adjusted” [2].

Nominal wages being up rejects the hypothesis that folks are being downsized into lower-paying roles.

[1] https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t19.htm

[2] https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#20

Post by Analemma_ »

bwestergard wrote: post #10
adamredwoods wrote: post #7

Bold claim to say "no signs" based on non-contextual numbers. I think I recall somewhere that most jobs added were in healthcare. >> The May jobs report reinforced this with nonfarm payrolls jumping by 172,000, confirming that there are no signs of workers being replaced by ChatGPT.

The shift toward healthcare employment is a very long running trend driven by the greying of the Baby Boom generation. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES6562000101

Yeah I'm starting to think the BLS needs to do "Boomer aging adjustments" to jobs numbers, in a similar manner to how they do "seasonal farming adjustments". Until we get through the Boomer population bulge, healthcare is going to keep adding jobs for quite a while regardless of how the rest of the economy does, but that doesn't necessarily mean the overall labor market is healthy.

If you leave out healthcare, 2025 had massive job losses overall, with Boomer bedpan cleaning bringing the net number up to just above zero.

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