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Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
311–320 of 345 posts
Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
#312Earlier quoted context omitted.
> That genuinely looks like SpaceX having cornered some valuable compute. That's nice way to say "invested in AI that turned out to be flop nobody wants to pay for so they are selling spare capacity"
> That's nice way to say "invested in AI that turned out to be flop nobody wants to pay for so they are selling spare capacity" Both takes are true. xAI invested in capacity that was supposed to yield frontier-model-maker margins. Grok failed to generate enough interest. So now they're selling it. That's absolutely a good business, in a way that's more certain than the frontier-model one. But it's also lower margin,…
Datacenter is an ok business, but as you say it shouldn't be getting the same growth multiple (P/E) as a high margin rapidly growing software business.
There is also a question of how sustainable this datacenter rental demand is. It would seem unexpected if Anthropic and Google continue renting from SpaceX for more than a few years, and both contracts can be cancelled with 90 days notice.
Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
#313Earlier quoted context omitted.
> don't see the distinction you're drawing about "commodity" People pay markedly more for NVIDIA GPUs than they do for others. That opposes the fungibility requirement of a commodity.
In the west, there's no actual competitor to NVIDIA hardware. Yes, people make other chips, but nothing is a serious drop-in replacement for the nv stack. Between the networking and software, they're truly a different "thing" of accelerator, and I don't consider them fungible at all. The US government tried to build 3 supercomputers with each of nvidia/amd/intel accelerators and you can see how it went
Well, in a largely token-based AI market it doesn't matter what hardware you use to generate those tokens - Google use TPUs, Amazon/Anthropic use Trainium, Musk is apparently contracting with Samsung to have his own chips built...
I expect that Google are renting SpaceX NVIDIA GPUs so they can resell to corporate GCP customers at higher rates, but if the AI growth story remains intact then I would expect the GPU-agnostic token demand to be much higher than the NVIDIA-specific rental demand.
Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
#314Earlier quoted context omitted.
So...all cash?
Given that the US govt is reportedly talking to OpenAI about taking a stake, your only choice might be Zimbabwean dollars.
One of my least favorite things about AI is that every time you suggest you don’t want anything to do with it, there’s a horde of rapist-brained twits like you waiting in the wings to cry about how inevitable it is. Shut up and go away.
Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
#315Earlier quoted context omitted.
I agree, generally competition is a good thing, but in this case I think we're having a divide and conquer scenario that works in Google's advantage. We're seeing that compute and investment liquidity is effectively a zero-sum game and by having Google go after the excess compute and liquidity (which they don't really need) will most likely weaken the competitors to the point where they aren't competitive. But if Ope…
This is a very persuasive argument that Google should have been broken up years ago.
Google selling ads on their search to people using their browser and phone was way more anti-trustful than anything Microsoft ever did, tbh.
Especially when you consider that they bribe Apple and Firefox to funnel users to them, too.
Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
#316In the last week Alphabet has positioned itself to go on the offense, going after exccess liquidity and excess compute. I fear that OpenAi and Anthropic would not be able to compete against an adveserial Alphabet which owns it's own models, hardware, large corpus of data, talent and network effects. My prediction is that OpenAI and Anthropic will eventually be crushed by Alphabet as they run out of investment and com…
> I fear that OpenAi and Anthropic would not be able to compete against an adveserial Alphabet which owns it's own models, hardware, large corpus of data, talent and network effects. Many people thought Google+ would stomp all over Facebook, and that GCP would kill Azure and AWS for most of the same reasons.
Has Google stomped on anyone since their Search squished hotbot and their email blew up hotmail?
Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
#317How much did Apple (via Google (via xAI (via SpaceX))) just crush their product? Seems an awful lot like Apple will commoditize the models that power Siri, and just “sherlocked” a trillion dollar private company.
Apple has completely dropped the ball on every single detail of AI rollout for the last 5 years - why do you think they will suddenly stop now? My prior is that the new siri stuff is just as vaporware as the previous "apple intelligence" rollout
Apple is pretty famous for dropping the ball for years on various things, and then coming out with a "slick version" so good that everyone forgets how late they were to the party.
The most famous would be the iPod, but there are others.
Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
#318why not let it be public ?
you release a confidential one - if you don't wanna release info that might empower competitors or you have bad numbers that might spook investors.
if you have a 'moat' then you wouldn't worry about releasing a draft S1. I assume OpenAI has neither.
Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
#319How much did Apple (via Google (via xAI (via SpaceX))) just crush their product? Seems an awful lot like Apple will commoditize the models that power Siri, and just “sherlocked” a trillion dollar private company.
I have absolutely no idea how someone could honestly believe this.
What is your disposition to OpenAI?
Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
#320Earlier quoted context omitted.
2 top labs...
Huh? I don't think there's much doubt out there that there are 3 top labs that are mostly at the same level - oAI, Anthropic & Goog (not necessarily in this order, depending on the month, but they've been trading SotA status on various verticals for a while now). There's also 2-3 other trailing labs in MS, xAI and Meta. All of them are blundering behind, but at one point or the other they've been up there for some ve…
> Huh? I don't think there's much doubt ...
I am doubting. I will be very surprised if Google ends up top or second place (again?) at any point in the next few years.
> I think this is good. Having one clear winner would be worse than this ...
I agree that it would be better to have 3+ top labs as well.