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AI is slowing down

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Re: AI is slowing down

#441

Post by [deleted] »

beepbooptheory wrote: post #417
spmurrayzzz wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a piece of this I agree with. That you do not need to be a deep technical expert to notice that a company is burning cash by overcommitting to capex, or relying on heroic revenue projections that may or may not come to pass. But that is not the full argument he is making. If the claim is that the labs will not be able to pay their creditors because inference is structurally incapable of becoming profitable,…

Doesn't this kinda imply its own smoke and mirrors though? Like if the name of the game with inference is already routing things around and caching so you can make money, why is the newest biggest model always the most important critical thing? How does this square with any of their press about it? Also wouldn't that just add more inference? Because you need to pre-judge every prompt to know where to route it? Also,…

[deleted]

Re: AI is slowing down

#442

Post by lz400 »

Grombobulous wrote: post #435
lz400 wrote: post #426

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess what I'm saying is that I won't look at his numbers since he's an unreliable source from my point of view and there's a chance that he's going to try to deceive me and it's a waste of time for me to listen to him. I do have other sources of information and I probably agree in general that AI companies are doing pretty shady financial shenanigans. I even think it's possible that openai is in real trouble. But…

I would agree with you that extrapolating to “AI is useless” is definitely a giant step too far, and that part of the article ruins a lot of the other interesting bits of it. It’s great that he cites a lot of sources but some of them aren’t great, like the Microsoft story about canceling their Claude spend. I think that particular story isn’t much of an indicator of anything, and it might not even be true. But the fi…

FWIW I agree the financials are a bit crazy and OpenAI went a bit nuts with the circular deals. That said, honestly, I don't think it's the end of the world. I think there will probably be some correction/crash and it will probably be healthy. A lot of these circular deals will get canceled, but it's at the end of the day people changing imaginary numbers with each other. The underlying tech I still think it's revolutionary regardless, the same way that the internet was and the tech boom crash at the end of the day was a distraction from the fact that these companies did end up "ruling the world"

Re: AI is slowing down

#443

Post by vineyardmike »

dwaite wrote: post #413
vineyardmike wrote: post #313

The obvious answer to where the AI Labs get customers is Cloud GPUs. Most users (globally) have cheap phones with poor CPUs and small amounts of RAM. They can't run usable models locally, and it's not clear from the Google-Apple deal if G is selling access to their cloud compute as part of that $1B, or just sharing the weights/IP. Apple themselves have said there is usage limits, with a subscription upgrade for more…

> Apple themselves have said there is usage limits, with a subscription upgrade for more usage. Specifically for image generation. They haven't indicated you have limits for Siri interactions.

> "Some features, including image generation, have daily usage limits because they rely on powerful server models. Increased access is available with most iCloud plus subscription plans".

Start at 1:07:00 in their announcement video. Craig is absolutely talking about "Apple Intelligence" as a whole in this segment.

Pragmatically, of course they'd need to add metering to any cloud available APIs that rely on large models. There's no way they will eat the cost of serving unlimited access to a cloud LLM to end users if they won't eat the cost of an image generation model.

Re: AI is slowing down

#444

Post by degamad »

hparadiz wrote: post #368
dofm wrote: post #364

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OpenAI themselves said, in their revenue projections, that they expect the consumer vs enterprise revenue split to be 50:50, though — see: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48451053

That's actually a really good sign if they are getting that many consumer subs. I was expecting it to be more like 1:4.

The trick is in the wording - they probably aren't getting that many subs. They're saying they "expect" to get that many, at some point in the mythical future.

Re: AI is slowing down

#445

Post by shironandonand »

chupchap wrote: post #439
dofm wrote: post #239

Today Apple launched its revamped AI offering. Judging by several reports, Apple pays Google a mere billion dollars a year to operate it. Essentially just licensing the IP. Google are (allegedly) happy to turn over the right to operate and distill their models for only a billion a year. Consumer revenue is only a smallish share of the puzzle, but still: If you are a consumer and you have a Mac or an iPhone, what do y…

People who use ChatGPT have fed so much data about their own lives and interests into it. This includes a lot of information about personal lives, interests, plans, business and even family! Shifting to another AI app is painful as they would need to start from scratch.

making me glad I always use ChatGPT in an incognito window, guy.

Re: AI is slowing down

#446

Post by filoleg »

famouswaffles wrote: post #330
dofm wrote: post #318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Will Apple's offering be providing any meaningful/significant benefit over just using GPT ? If not, don't expect any miracles. Judging by the announcements today about its integration into the OSes? They are offering useful things ChatGPT cannot offer unless they write an "everything app". One can (maybe should) make the argument that this is the browser monopoly again, but given that the USA has seemingly no inten…

Just because Apple said they're 'integrating into the OS' (which can really mean a lot of things) doesn't mean they'll offer something users will actually care about that Open AI can't match.

> Apple said they're 'integrating into the OS' (which can really mean a lot of things)

Well, it can mean a lot of things, which is why Apple outlined plenty of specific use-cases and details of what they meant by "integrating into the OS" here.

Re: AI is slowing down

#447

Post by sarchertech »

chupchap wrote: post #439
dofm wrote: post #239

Today Apple launched its revamped AI offering. Judging by several reports, Apple pays Google a mere billion dollars a year to operate it. Essentially just licensing the IP. Google are (allegedly) happy to turn over the right to operate and distill their models for only a billion a year. Consumer revenue is only a smallish share of the puzzle, but still: If you are a consumer and you have a Mac or an iPhone, what do y…

People who use ChatGPT have fed so much data about their own lives and interests into it. This includes a lot of information about personal lives, interests, plans, business and even family! Shifting to another AI app is painful as they would need to start from scratch.

I don’t know anyone who uses ChatGPT who cares about that stuff. Most people just use it as a Google replacement.

I actively hate it when it brings in some nonsense it thinks it knows about me. I told it my income once in an attempt to use it to find the perfect rewards credit card mix. Now anytime I try to get it to search for a deal it brings up some nonsense about “as a high income individual you don’t worry about saving $X, you care more about reliability, so you don’t need to look for the lowest cost” or something similar.

Re: AI is slowing down

#448

Post by casey2 »

0000000000100 wrote: post #315
SlinkyOnStairs wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> He would begin somewhere–statistics on AI demand, say–and then walk the calculations carefully over to the next step–maybe revenue needed for profitability by AI companies–and you could follow the argument. That's exactly what the first (titled) section does?

Haha thought you were referring to the upsell at the start asking to subscribe to the newsletter for $70 / year. But yes it does call out the unprecedented amount of money getting dumped into AI. What turned me off though was this paragraph: > This is a hysterical era perpetuated by liars, cowards, imbeciles, craven boosters and the easily-fooled. Those excited about generative AI are either the victim or the perpetr…

I mean it almost certainly won't increase unless a major company takes out substantial debt, in which case we just kick the can and have conversations about bigger numbers. I don't quite think you understand, where will these hundreds of billions come from? By 2029 we will be well into a hardware glut and people will run their own models. Anthropic doesn't have the data flywheel to compete with OpenAI or Google. They went all in on special purpose AI and hit a brick wall and had a "do as much evil as possible" strategy which didn't pay off. Hopefully they fail before they get the entire industry regulated.

Re: AI is slowing down

#449

Post by sarchertech »

wrsh07 wrote: post #397
dofm wrote: post #239

Today Apple launched its revamped AI offering. Judging by several reports, Apple pays Google a mere billion dollars a year to operate it. Essentially just licensing the IP. Google are (allegedly) happy to turn over the right to operate and distill their models for only a billion a year. Consumer revenue is only a smallish share of the puzzle, but still: If you are a consumer and you have a Mac or an iPhone, what do y…

> 2026 consumer revenue projections from OpenAI are pitched at $14-15 billion, apparently. If they get that, it's the only year they will get that Would you care to wager on that? Because I would gladly take the other side at even odds. > consumer AI is worth, to Anthropic Anthropic does not really care about consumer AI. I expect consumer is where their least profitably customers are. My primary expectation is that…

> Because I would gladly take the other side at even odds.

If you’re only giving even odds you’re not very confident in openAI at all. $15 billion is peanuts.

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