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AI is slowing down

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Re: AI is slowing down

#351

Post by shimman »

hparadiz wrote: post #346
dofm wrote: post #239

Today Apple launched its revamped AI offering. Judging by several reports, Apple pays Google a mere billion dollars a year to operate it. Essentially just licensing the IP. Google are (allegedly) happy to turn over the right to operate and distill their models for only a billion a year. Consumer revenue is only a smallish share of the puzzle, but still: If you are a consumer and you have a Mac or an iPhone, what do y…

You are kind of glossing over the B2B market where contract pricing is basically just MBA vibes and the fact that people don't really care necessarily about the performance of the language model once it hits a baseline. They care about how it integrates into their lives. Precisely where first mover advantage comes into play. Having to train a language model all over again is it's own sunk cost.

B2B absolutely cares, especially since ZIRP is unlikely to ever come back in our lifetimes. No sane corporation is going to continue to throw billions down the drain with nothing to show for it.

Re: AI is slowing down

#352

Post by famouswaffles »

discreteevent wrote: post #348
famouswaffles wrote: post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just because Apple said they're 'integrating into the OS' (which can really mean a lot of things) doesn't mean they'll offer something users will actually care about that Open AI can't match.

> that Open AI can't match. Open AI can match it but at what price?

I don't understand what you are saying here

Re: AI is slowing down

#353

Post by iyeyerjdsd »

dofm wrote: post #239

Today Apple launched its revamped AI offering. Judging by several reports, Apple pays Google a mere billion dollars a year to operate it. Essentially just licensing the IP. Google are (allegedly) happy to turn over the right to operate and distill their models for only a billion a year. Consumer revenue is only a smallish share of the puzzle, but still: If you are a consumer and you have a Mac or an iPhone, what do y…

[dead]

Re: AI is slowing down

#354

Post by throwthrowuknow »

dofm wrote: post #318
famouswaffles wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>If you are a consumer and you have a Mac or an iPhone, what do you need from AI that Apple's new offering won't provide? Why would you pay for ChatGPT, or even tolerate its inevitably increasingly desperate ad placements? Probably the same reason the Gemini app is still well behind ChatGPT in consumer usage and adoption despite being preinstalled on android phones worldwide ? Why are people using GPT on Windows. The…

> Will Apple's offering be providing any meaningful/significant benefit over just using GPT ? If not, don't expect any miracles. Judging by the announcements today about its integration into the OSes? They are offering useful things ChatGPT cannot offer unless they write an "everything app". One can (maybe should) make the argument that this is the browser monopoly again, but given that the USA has seemingly no inten…

Windows has been pushing the same thing hard without much success.

Why do I care if AI is integrated into my OS when I can choose my preferred AI and it can use the OS directly?

Re: AI is slowing down

#355

Post by raziel2701 »

zachthewf wrote: post #51
root_axis wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you point to anything specific from the article that you'd describe as consistently wrong? Not disagreeing with you, but nothing popped out to me after skimming the article.

I didn't read the posted article (I don't read this author anymore because I think it's basically anti-AI ideological propaganda). But from the article I linked back in March 2024: "Generative AI models are expensive and compute-intensive without providing obvious, tangible mass-market use cases. Murati and Altman's futures depend heavily on keeping the world believing that development and improvement of their models…

Hallucinations are still a problem. I recently asked one to give me a quote from a book, figuring that since these AI companies have pirated all books in existence surely it can just recite a specific passage no? It hallucinated the quote, I had even told it what chapter it was in. Had I not read the book recently maybe I would've believed the hallucinated quote.

And it got me thinking, they sell these AIs as assistants, but it couldn't even look up a passage from a book. This is basic, elementary stuff, it should get it right. I would have fired this assistant right away if it were a person. Not only did it get it totally wrong, it came to me with utmost confidence that this is the quote from the book. Unreliable assistants? That's the product they're trying to sell? Get out of here with that trash. I can't trust it.

Re: AI is slowing down

#356

Post by shimman »

dolebirchwood wrote: post #296
argee wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A big chunk of text asked for support on the basis of the article. I hadn’t read the article. I scrolled down a bit to read. A popup took up my screen, asking me to subscribe, having read essentially nothing at this point. I just left. Life is too short.

I know the HN guidelines discourage commenting on "tangential annoyances" on a website, but I think this issue is more than just tangential and more than just an annoyance. When an author is this relentless in pushing you to sign up, there is good reason to suspect that financial motives are unduly driving an agenda. I counted 8 such instances: 1. In the sidebar 2. At the top of the article 3. Popup in the middle of…

Of things to be upset about, an independent journalist asking readers to pay for access ranks very low. Especially compared to LLM companies that are exacerbating the climate crisis, increasing cancer rates among residents, or increasing utilities for residents.

This sort of behavior completely tanks any and all credibility this commentator may have.

Re: AI is slowing down

#358

Post by raziel2701 »

jimmaswell wrote: post #30
ericmcer wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah they seem clickable because anything Anti-AI is a bit soothing right now, but he is constantly wrong and usually is pushing the angle of "these businesses aren't even profitable!" Instantly close the tab as soon as the popup to subscribe to his newsletter pops up.

Why is anti-AI soothing?

It's seen as an existential threat to young people. If you can't get a job you starve.

Re: AI is slowing down

#359

Post by mlyle »

LogicFailsMe wrote: post #344
mlyle wrote: post #336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Well, he dismisses any value whatsoever to GenAI. I didn’t read it that way. I see a lot of value in it. I just don’t see us justifying the amount of infrastructure being built or current valuations. Or in the unlikely event that we do, the societal upheaval is going to take away the ability to monetize it meaningfully. OpenAI and Anthropic may make it through. But that is different from saying valuations are justi…

"Those excited about generative AI are either the victim or the perpetrator of a con centered around a technology to ingratiate at the highest cost possible." How else would you read the above statement? He's just preaching to his own choir IMO. My take: like any gold rush, a lot of dumb ideas will get backed and they will all fail. And then we'll keep the ones that worked. SSND. Good luck picking the winners a prior…

I read it in context as being about the market prospects of genai.

The problem is, when there is so much overinvestment, everything gets wrecked. In the aftermath of the dotcom boom there was at least a bedrock of fiber and still useful equipment to build upon amid the rubble. This time we are going so much further; also many of the durable assets are misplaced bets and the depreciating ones will depreciate more steeply.

Re: AI is slowing down

#360

Post by loandbehold »

Tanjreeve wrote: post #322
0000000000100 wrote: post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Haha thought you were referring to the upsell at the start asking to subscribe to the newsletter for $70 / year. But yes it does call out the unprecedented amount of money getting dumped into AI. What turned me off though was this paragraph: > This is a hysterical era perpetuated by liars, cowards, imbeciles, craven boosters and the easily-fooled. Those excited about generative AI are either the victim or the perpetr…

So basically you can't find fault with the numbers but you find the tone annoying?

He implies $400 billion in revenue by the end of 2029 is unrealistic when in fact it's very doable if you look at the trajectory of this technology since ChatGPT 4.0 launch. Google and Meta bring in around $500 billion in ad revenue between two of them annually. ChatGPT will easily bring 100s of billions in ad revenue if fully monetized given 1. it has billion weekly active users 2. ChatGPT conversation provides even better context for ad targeting vs search or social media. Enterprise AI revenue is going through the roof already, and with computer use companies will literally be able to fire large percentage of white collar workers and replace them with AI agent without updating their software infra.
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