191–200 of 580 posts
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>What happens in a few years when DeepSeek runs on the chinese chips like the Huawei Ascend at a fraction of the cost ? Nvidia goes back to being a 100 billion dollar business and everyone else reaps the benefits of cheap tokens.
So Nvidia will lose 94.5% of their market cap, and you think that will not effect anything beyond AI?
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And yet they are not profitable on an ongoing basis, and aren’t even claiming to be. The supply is currently constrained because 50+% of data center plans were cancelled as a result of the impossibility of the buildouts happening in a timely fashion, and subscriptions are charging a small fraction of the actual cost of inference, leading them to all bleed money, hence the rush to IPO to get one last infusion, since m…
They've stopped subscriptions for the most part. Companies are paying API rates for their employees.
In the meantime subscriptions still exist in the form of chatbots and it’s easy to exceed the inference cost of the provider by simply using your daily, weekly, and monthly limits.
The reality is that we just don’t seem to be at a point now where people are willing to pay full price for the perceived value. Perhaps we’ll get there within another generation or two of hardware and software improvements.
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I always think 401k is not fair at all. It kinda forces one to invest and pump the stock prices.
This is what financial capitalism and "democratizing finance" has meant in practice. Rich people have access to different types of investments, and by the time those trickle down to common investors the juice has all been squeezed out. Whatever the trend is, by the time you hear about it the market has already been arbitraged by faster investors with more resources. We are not going to come up with a market-based sol…
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Lagged processes are one of the most fundamental concepts in economics. If merely recognizing the possibility that one could be at play here is throwing you for a loop, you need the simplified monetary model more than most.
Where's the hell is the lag on these graphs though!? The money supply grows both before, and after the inflationary spike. (And the fact that it stops increasing when inflation is high is not surprising at all, by the way, high inflation make the central bank raise interest rates, which reduce credit, which is where money comes from).
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If the S&P 500 dropped 20%, that's about a year's growth. Long-term investors who bought before that would be poorer than they thought they were, but they're not worse off than they started and there wouldn't be any particular bill to pay. If they're a long term investor then they can wait for it to come back. (A similar argument could be made for larger drops.) The real suffering comes from whatever effect there is…
They can sit it out but that doesn't mean no one paid the bill. And some others might need to pull out when its down. Money doesn't appear out of thin air. Why would it lead to recession if a handful of big companies lose money they have? It will show that the USA is in a recession for sure, but otherwise
In fact [fiat] money does appear out of thin air (well, created by banks when they originate loans) - and has to to support a growing economy. Unfortunately, for various reasons, rather too much has been appearing, and has been funneled to the already wealthy.
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Where's the hell is the lag on these graphs though!? The money supply grows both before, and after the inflationary spike. (And the fact that it stops increasing when inflation is high is not surprising at all, by the way, high inflation make the central bank raise interest rates, which reduce credit, which is where money comes from).
The lag is where you were complaining it was.
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>What happens when the music stops? Bubble bursts, somewhere between 2008 housing crisis and the dotcom bust. Really dependent on if there are any OTHER structural problems to compound a fast re-valuation of tech stocks. There's plenty of noise about banks holding large amounts of bad private credit debt. There could be a lot or only a little collapse. There's so much uncertainty and the combination of war, high oil…
> There's plenty of noise about banks holding large amounts of bad private credit debt. This and auto loans. I have NO IDEA how people are affording $770 per month car payments _on top of_ $4.50+ per gallon gasoline.
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This is what financial capitalism and "democratizing finance" has meant in practice. Rich people have access to different types of investments, and by the time those trickle down to common investors the juice has all been squeezed out. Whatever the trend is, by the time you hear about it the market has already been arbitraged by faster investors with more resources. We are not going to come up with a market-based sol…
>Rich people have access to different types of investments, You mean hedge funds and private equity/private credit that all under perform S&P500?
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Someone gets bailed out and the cycle starts again. Isnt this how it works?
or, hear me out, we can try the Irish way? Just let them fail ffs
Should the government bail them out or somehow stop the collapse? Arguable. Will they anyway? Almost certainly. These companies have engineered themselves into a position where being allowed to fail would wreak catastrophic damage to the national (and global) economy precisely so that the taxpayer will be left holding the bag if and when it all comes crashing down.
Capitalism is rotten to the core and there's no fix for it.
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This is what financial capitalism and "democratizing finance" has meant in practice. Rich people have access to different types of investments, and by the time those trickle down to common investors the juice has all been squeezed out. Whatever the trend is, by the time you hear about it the market has already been arbitraged by faster investors with more resources. We are not going to come up with a market-based sol…
The middle class resists it because we know who will be taxed through the nose to fund this safety net. Hint: it's not the ultra rich.