151–160 of 580 posts
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At least Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon can afford it. Nvidia is not losing anything if their stock falls. So whats left? The typical candidates of course: We poor people. 401k, ETF, etc. we pay the bill.
If Alphabet can afford it why are they issuing $80B in new shares for fresh capital?
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Enron collapsed due to legitimate fraud. To imply Enron is an apt comparison requires assertion that AI companies are actually cooking the books. Is that what you are saying?
The ARR were fine but showing skewed quarterly profitability numbers by slowing down research due to hitting compute capacity suggests otherwise. I am certain Anthropic spent less on building the next model this quarter if they make it to profitability due to the shear fact that they don't have enough compute. Which solves the profitability problem with relative ease momentarily. Also just to confirm, AI subscription…
I think there are accelerating returns: i.e. a models are still not good enough to be “drop in” remote workers, but once that threshold is passed, the value of each token of inference has a far higher multiplier.
This justifies the buildup. However not everyone agrees that model intelligence will continue scaling thus they assert that eventually the economics will hit a wall.
>Also given Mythos is atleast a 10x model compared to Opus, then it's pricing is likely going to be 10x as well so well token prices are likely never coming down, especially if these companies want to IPO.
I don't know why people say this when cost per unit of intelligence has been going down continuously over the past few years. When Opus 3 was first released, its API cost was $15.00 per million input tokens and $75.00 per million output tokens. Opus 4.8. which is significantly better, is $5.00 per 1 million input tokens and $25.00 per 1 million output tokens
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Someone gets bailed out and the cycle starts again. Isnt this how it works?
We are basically dealing with the fallout of the 2008 GFC bailout to this day. The fiat economic system is irreparably broken, and we are circling the drain. Another bailout is _probably_ inevitable. But the cycle sure as hell isnt resetting and we are speeding towards something... what it is is unclear though, and when is also unclear. The part people cant wrap around is the scale of it and the time it takes to go t…
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I always think 401k is not fair at all. It kinda forces one to invest and pump the stock prices.
This is what financial capitalism and "democratizing finance" has meant in practice. Rich people have access to different types of investments, and by the time those trickle down to common investors the juice has all been squeezed out. Whatever the trend is, by the time you hear about it the market has already been arbitraged by faster investors with more resources. We are not going to come up with a market-based sol…
You mean hedge funds and private equity/private credit that all under perform S&P500?
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Think two things can be true at once. They should be using their capital to achieve their speculative price. Instead, they are using their capital to achieve a modest ROI, thus invalidating the speculation AND proving they have tech issues in what the speculation is around.
They are making $24B/yr on datacenters they built in < 2 years for $2-3B. To call that a "modest ROI" is... quite a statement.
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Someone gets bailed out and the cycle starts again. Isnt this how it works?
We are basically dealing with the fallout of the 2008 GFC bailout to this day. The fiat economic system is irreparably broken, and we are circling the drain. Another bailout is _probably_ inevitable. But the cycle sure as hell isnt resetting and we are speeding towards something... what it is is unclear though, and when is also unclear. The part people cant wrap around is the scale of it and the time it takes to go t…
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I always think 401k is not fair at all. It kinda forces one to invest and pump the stock prices.
Until someone can come up with a better option though... Note that a pension plan that invests for you blindly is no better - either the returns are so bad that they are a scam, or they are investing in stocks anyway and so you get the same results but less control. Similar for things like social security, they are either worse options or you need to pump stocks.
A welfare state maybe?
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Enron collapsed due to legitimate fraud. To imply Enron is an apt comparison requires assertion that AI companies are actually cooking the books. Is that what you are saying?
Please address the primary point first: Selling some product does not disprove speculation. In the case of Enron, people were obviously speculating in its stock, and that remains true regardless of why it collapsed later, or even whether it collapsed at all. I say "first" because if you still can't agree that speculation in AI stocks even exists , then it's pointless to discuss what people might be doing to exploit o…
Also to be more specific about our point of disagreement, I think we are referring to speculation in different domains. When I brought it up, I am referring to the fact that any companies whose revenue is driven by a speculative bubble (like what precipitated the 2008 crisis) would be at risk of massive losses "if the music stops". Anthropic/OpenAI aren't flipping assets. It is true that VC funding is based on speculation, but their core business model is producing massive revenue growth on selling tokens.
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What's their novelty or moat to maintain the value chain? And why do we only see google, who already owns it, raising their hand to rent at these prices?
I’m not sure they need novelty or moat. AI compute resources are so scarce that inference providers will buy whatever is available. SpaceX sells inference hardware in bulk, with a proven track record of running inference and training workloads at scale.
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There's no realistic way for the music to stop. The demand for LLMs is staggering and the big providers are charging full freight for inference. They might not make back the money from training but these data centers are definitely going to be fully utilized for at least the next 5 years.
> the big providers are charging full freight for inference. Except they're not. Anthropic's claims of temporary profitability line up exactly with when SpaceX is giving them discounted compute, OpenAI's such a shitfest they threw the CFO off the glass cliff for daring to push back against the IPO. "Profitable on inference" is an unsubstantiated rumour. Just look at the copilot changes. Demand switching to other prov…
More like $75/mo per user for the next 5-10 years if they can get 5% of the global population to pay that.