Earlier quoted context omitted.
I've seen a lot of people indicate they think people's predictions for the future with AI are like a psy-op and that none of them really believe it. Isn't it simpler to believe that people like Terrance Tao who have been in good standing with the academic community for a long time are telling the truth? Like you may very well disagree with their predictions based on your lived experience or theories... But it doesn't…
Academics aren't infallible at all. The studies showing tobacco as non-harmful had the collaboration of a great many cooperative scientists. Generally speaking, many academics are amoral and will do very unscrupulous things for grant funding and exposure. It is a business. > AI could get better at fundamental/ applied STEM research than humans -> we can scale this up exponentially -> scaled up human level or super hu…
> Any software producing stochastic or probabilistic output and cannot produce verifiable, repeatable, and predictable data cannot fundamentally replace something that requires a high level of proof and validation
Human output is also stochastic and probabilistic - our brains are not deterministic software. There is no fundamental reason we couldn't replace the human role in research with some form of AI (LLM or otherwise) if AI keeps improving.