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xAI is looking more like a datacentre REIT than a frontier lab

martinalderson.com

101–110 of 580 posts

Re: xAI is looking more like a datacentre REIT than a frontier lab

#101
post #6

> And Google is a major shareholder in SpaceX, so they certainly have incentive to juice the valuation of the IPO. Google own 5-6% of the shares of SpaceX. SpaceX is seeking a valuation of $1.77T which means Google's shares would be worth $88.5B-$106.2B. I'm not a skeptic of AI/LLMs but this makes me deeply suspicious of these circular deals. What happens when the music stops?

These companies are too big to fail. I'm afraid the tax payers will be the ultimate consequences bearer.

Re: xAI is looking more like a datacentre REIT than a frontier lab

#102
post #6

> And Google is a major shareholder in SpaceX, so they certainly have incentive to juice the valuation of the IPO. Google own 5-6% of the shares of SpaceX. SpaceX is seeking a valuation of $1.77T which means Google's shares would be worth $88.5B-$106.2B. I'm not a skeptic of AI/LLMs but this makes me deeply suspicious of these circular deals. What happens when the music stops?

At least Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon can afford it. Nvidia is not losing anything if their stock falls. So whats left? The typical candidates of course: We poor people. 401k, ETF, etc. we pay the bill.

I always think 401k is not fair at all. It kinda forces one to invest and pump the stock prices.

Re: xAI is looking more like a datacentre REIT than a frontier lab

#103
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon can afford it. Nvidia is not losing anything if their stock falls. So whats left? The typical candidates of course: We poor people. 401k, ETF, etc. we pay the bill.

If Alphabet can afford it why are they issuing $80B in new shares for fresh capital?

Just look at the net income of alphabet.

Whatever financial games they play in the background, doesn't matter when you make that much per 2 quarters alone.

Re: xAI is looking more like a datacentre REIT than a frontier lab

#104

Technology has a very short life. The difference is that a REIT might contain an office buildings that can be used for any business, but a data center is filled with carcasses that start rotting and stinking from the day of installation.

No, that's silly. Chips don't rot like produce. Some components will go bad and will need to be replaced. The owner can choose how fast to replace them depending on how prices look in a few years. The rest of the building (including things like power) will still be useful.

i think what op meant is they're instantly out of date. You're not going to be able replace every GPU in your datacenter on every new release from Nvidia and customers are going to go to whoever has the highest performing gear.

Re: xAI is looking more like a datacentre REIT than a frontier lab

#105
post #6

> And Google is a major shareholder in SpaceX, so they certainly have incentive to juice the valuation of the IPO. Google own 5-6% of the shares of SpaceX. SpaceX is seeking a valuation of $1.77T which means Google's shares would be worth $88.5B-$106.2B. I'm not a skeptic of AI/LLMs but this makes me deeply suspicious of these circular deals. What happens when the music stops?

The question you should be asking is who prints the money that materializes those valuations.

And who gets stuck with the bonds.

Re: xAI is looking more like a datacentre REIT than a frontier lab

#106
post #6

> And Google is a major shareholder in SpaceX, so they certainly have incentive to juice the valuation of the IPO. Google own 5-6% of the shares of SpaceX. SpaceX is seeking a valuation of $1.77T which means Google's shares would be worth $88.5B-$106.2B. I'm not a skeptic of AI/LLMs but this makes me deeply suspicious of these circular deals. What happens when the music stops?

>What happens when the music stops? Bubble bursts, somewhere between 2008 housing crisis and the dotcom bust. Really dependent on if there are any OTHER structural problems to compound a fast re-valuation of tech stocks. There's plenty of noise about banks holding large amounts of bad private credit debt. There could be a lot or only a little collapse. There's so much uncertainty and the combination of war, high oil…

> There's plenty of noise about banks holding large amounts of bad private credit debt.

This and auto loans. I have NO IDEA how people are affording $770 per month car payments _on top of_ $4.50+ per gallon gasoline.

Re: xAI is looking more like a datacentre REIT than a frontier lab

#107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>What happens when the music stops? Bubble bursts, somewhere between 2008 housing crisis and the dotcom bust. Really dependent on if there are any OTHER structural problems to compound a fast re-valuation of tech stocks. There's plenty of noise about banks holding large amounts of bad private credit debt. There could be a lot or only a little collapse. There's so much uncertainty and the combination of war, high oil…

The post-information age has never felt so well-named as it does lately. Investors dumping billions into completely unproven and, largely, undesired tech. Why? Because the Valley doesn't have anything else to sell, seemingly. Either way, as always, we'll do it the American Way: Privatize the profits, socialize the losses.

>The post-information age has never felt so well-named as it does lately. Investors dumping billions into completely unproven and, largely, undesired tech. Why?

Eh. There's too much money. Covid response involved printing a lot of money and it all ended up somewhere. The chaos of the current administration has made everything considerably harder to price and the coincidental rise of the LLM has put us in strange situation that is legitimately difficult to price things correctly.

Re: xAI is looking more like a datacentre REIT than a frontier lab

#108

So we know what they are renting these GPUs for. I'm really curious about the input costs of their power generation. Is there actually enough margin in these deals for xAI to cover their depreciation cost? Edit: from the footnotes: > Colossus actually runs largely on its own on-site gas turbines, which comes out even cheaper: at a simple-cycle heat rate of ~10,000 Btu/kWh and Henry Hub gas at ~$3.50/MMBtu, the fuel b…

I think the hard part is acquiring the GPUs, first at all, then at any reasonable price.

Re: xAI is looking more like a datacentre REIT than a frontier lab

#109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon can afford it. Nvidia is not losing anything if their stock falls. So whats left? The typical candidates of course: We poor people. 401k, ETF, etc. we pay the bill.

I always think 401k is not fair at all. It kinda forces one to invest and pump the stock prices.

With most 401k plans, you can choose what you invest in to an extent. You can put it in bonds or other investments if you want.

Re: xAI is looking more like a datacentre REIT than a frontier lab

#110

Technology has a very short life. The difference is that a REIT might contain an office buildings that can be used for any business, but a data center is filled with carcasses that start rotting and stinking from the day of installation.

The idea that the AI data centers would depreciate in just a few years is plain wrong. The argument was that new chips would be so much more powerful and efficient that it would be cheaper to buy and operate the new chips than to just operate the old chips. Except that demand is significantly outpacing new chip manufacturing, and until it catches up years and years from now, the efficiency argument doesn't matter at all.
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