AI is slowing down

Yeah they're very much deniable. Raw LOC/hr is much higher, and putting together a MVP, but I've yet to see any evidence that an LLM is capable of doing anything unsupervised, and if you need a human supervising everything it does... why bother having an LLM in the first place?

The way I see it, AI is going to change the world radically. It could be for the worse, the better, or a mix of both, but in my mind there's no doubt.

We are only five or six years into the leap LLMs represent. For reference, radio waves were discovered in 1886, Marconi used them for communications in 1895, and while telephone and radio coexisted for many decades, it wasn't until the 1995 that mobile phones and wireless technologies started picking up. It took so long not because of the physics of radio waves required time to mature and improve, but because everything else needed to profit from it did require time.

To me, LLMs are not so much AI as it is a building block. Radiowaves maybe, or the equivalent of transistors. We are already seeing that it's possible to chain LLMs into agents. Currently, price is a strict limiting factor for coding and agents.It's probably fine-ish if all you want is Claude Code or Codex, but there are many other possible compositions of LLMs that most people don't dare to experiment with. For example, LLMs to drive NPC dialog and world mechanics in games is not a thing due to cost. Were prices of inference hardware go down and inference algorithms keep improving, I'm convinced (and afraid) we would see things very difficult to imagine today.

That's true, and I am not anti-AI. I was not only thinking about the environmental effects of some single prompt or a certain amount of tokens.

Neither did I want to say that a car is always more wasteful than some alternative.

But defaulting to the behemoth is inefficient, unless everyone is driven to do it: then it's in some way reasonable.

By adding "corrupt" and "dependent", as well as the economic terms, I wanted to offer a broader critique and create an analogy, not just talk about energy usage on its own.

What I had in mind was: it's easier to go many places that are a mile or less from me, by car. Because everything is obstructed by cars. And I'm atrophied by lack of movement. Best would be to drive somewhere to move/walk.

People already do that in masses.

And doing shopping by car, because everything else seems unbearable, also takes away your time, apart from wasting energy compared to more, smaller shops that would be reachable by foot, bycicle etc.

I guess you know the argument.

Today, people's thinking atrophies because their LLM is probably right in their summarization of some Wikipedia article, plus 2-3 other random sources.

Or so.

Using the Wikipedia search function is not expensive.

But, I mostly had a bigger picture in mind than what is the cost of inference.

[dead]

Funny I just read an article on how it was actually speeding up.