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xAI is looking more like a datacentre REIT than a frontier lab

martinalderson.com

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Re: xAI is looking more like a datacentre REIT than a frontier lab

#3
post #2

They have developed an LLM, so they are an AI lab, but the quality of that model suggests they're not a frontier anything.

Or the model was a marketing expense to capitalize the data center model. Im not saying it was intentionally that, but its been an effective "that."

Re: xAI is looking more like a datacentre REIT than a frontier lab

#5
post #2

They have developed an LLM, so they are an AI lab, but the quality of that model suggests they're not a frontier anything.

Or the model was a marketing expense to capitalize the data center model. Im not saying it was intentionally that, but its been an effective "that."

Eh. It was a leading model for a few weeks, it was a real effort, but they never built a real revenue model around it. It wasn't SaaS, it wasn't for governments, it couldn't get B2C payments. Made it hard to justify the training cost to stay at the frontier.

Re: xAI is looking more like a datacentre REIT than a frontier lab

#6
> And Google is a major shareholder in SpaceX, so they certainly have incentive to juice the valuation of the IPO.

Google own 5-6% of the shares of SpaceX. SpaceX is seeking a valuation of $1.77T which means Google's shares would be worth $88.5B-$106.2B. I'm not a skeptic of AI/LLMs but this makes me deeply suspicious of these circular deals. What happens when the music stops?

Re: xAI is looking more like a datacentre REIT than a frontier lab

#7
post #2

They have developed an LLM, so they are an AI lab, but the quality of that model suggests they're not a frontier anything.

Or the model was a marketing expense to capitalize the data center model. Im not saying it was intentionally that, but its been an effective "that."

So like the 4D Chess Trump is playing with us?

Come on, the most logical thing is that Musk overestimated the compute he needs and got lucky with the secondary usage of it.

As soon as the IPO is done and if it didn't fail, he will buy curser and try to push again if he hasn't given up on it.

He also needs some compute for the robotics stuff and for Tesla in-car entertainment and for training FSD.

Re: xAI is looking more like a datacentre REIT than a frontier lab

#8
post #6

> And Google is a major shareholder in SpaceX, so they certainly have incentive to juice the valuation of the IPO. Google own 5-6% of the shares of SpaceX. SpaceX is seeking a valuation of $1.77T which means Google's shares would be worth $88.5B-$106.2B. I'm not a skeptic of AI/LLMs but this makes me deeply suspicious of these circular deals. What happens when the music stops?

Someone gets bailed out and the cycle starts again. Isnt this how it works?

Re: xAI is looking more like a datacentre REIT than a frontier lab

#9
post #6

> And Google is a major shareholder in SpaceX, so they certainly have incentive to juice the valuation of the IPO. Google own 5-6% of the shares of SpaceX. SpaceX is seeking a valuation of $1.77T which means Google's shares would be worth $88.5B-$106.2B. I'm not a skeptic of AI/LLMs but this makes me deeply suspicious of these circular deals. What happens when the music stops?

A lot of people are emotionally unprepared for a world where the music doesn't stop.

Re: xAI is looking more like a datacentre REIT than a frontier lab

#10
post #6

> And Google is a major shareholder in SpaceX, so they certainly have incentive to juice the valuation of the IPO. Google own 5-6% of the shares of SpaceX. SpaceX is seeking a valuation of $1.77T which means Google's shares would be worth $88.5B-$106.2B. I'm not a skeptic of AI/LLMs but this makes me deeply suspicious of these circular deals. What happens when the music stops?

At least Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon can afford it.

Nvidia is not losing anything if their stock falls.

So whats left? The typical candidates of course: We poor people. 401k, ETF, etc. we pay the bill.

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