All the top comments are commenting on the author. And now I add this metacommentary. Probably good it was flagged.
AI is slowing down
91–100 of 820 posts
Re: AI is slowing down
#92I find it difficult to separate this piece’s tone from its content. The tone puts me off and makes it hard for me to judge it on its merits, despite some of the arguments seeming sound and well supported.
Ed's posts are peak preaching to the choir, they're usually factually correct but he is really bad at convincing anyone who doesn't already strongly agree with him.
Perhaps that’s it. I would tend to agree with his position, I think, but don’t appreciate being preached to. Even less so when I agree with what’s being said.
Re: AI is slowing down
#93Earlier quoted context omitted.
The only "bubble" with AI is that the initial build out is cyclical, and many of the high flying chip stocks with no software arms (ala Nvidia's CUDA) will come back to Earth. I think anyone that thinks AI is going away or won't have massive impact (though maybe not in the doomsday scenario) are in complete denial.
What I suspect isn't that AI goes somewhere, but I do think that the cutting edge companies like Anthropic and OpenAI are in a very precarious position. They don't have very much of a moat and the competition has been catching up quick while spending a lot less doing so. IMO, the main thing keeping them alive right now is name recognition. If I were to make a prediction, it's that ultimately these cheaper models are…
The moat is the infrastructure and lock-in. Similar to AWS or anything else. Small data centers can't compete, and similarly people without massive compute won't be able to either (at least not on the enterprise level.) You might get a few edge models, but for huge businesses they will be using OpenAI and Anthropic (and Google/Microsoft/Amazon, etc).
The biggest competitors aren't small models, they are just the traditional players that already have an "in" with enterprises. That I think will start to show its face once this initial round of buildout is complete, which may not be for another 5+ years.
Re: AI is slowing down
#94Zitron is begging for a collapse at this point. Yes, his macro analysis correctly identifies a massive financial risk but his incessant pessimism completely misses the incredible ground-level utility that many of us on HN celebrate every day through undeniable, massive productivity gains. At this point I'm trying to believe there's a middle ground where the level of individual capability this unlocks, leads to major…
He’s been continuously predicting that the collapse was just around the corner, that progress was slowing, and that there was no market for inference, since 2024. The fact he’s never reflected on the glaring failures in his analysis tells what we need to know about his intellectual integrity. There’s truth in some of his words about financial risk, but if you can’t acknowledge that there’s upside too, you can’t evalu…
> progress was slowing
Do you think it's not slowing? Do I miss anything really important?
My understanding is that we have now is incremental improvement on thinking models which appeared more than a year ago. Of course, a breakthrough might happen, but I don't see one yet.
Re: AI is slowing down
#95Earlier quoted context omitted.
What I suspect isn't that AI goes somewhere, but I do think that the cutting edge companies like Anthropic and OpenAI are in a very precarious position. They don't have very much of a moat and the competition has been catching up quick while spending a lot less doing so. IMO, the main thing keeping them alive right now is name recognition. If I were to make a prediction, it's that ultimately these cheaper models are…
It is not just about cheaper models; it is about integration with the economy. These models are building deep integrations into companies and the entire economy. Once that stabilizes, it will be like the electricity grid—pumping tokens to fuel decision-making across the entire global society. Good luck unplugging from that. Furthermore, there is a massive geopolitical aspect to it: those who are already on the Wester…
> These models are building deep integrations into companies and the entire economy. Once that stabilizes, it will be like the electricity grid—pumping tokens to fuel decision-making across the entire global society. Good luck unplugging from that.
Much like the electric grid, what we are seeing is a convergence on standard APIs. For example, most of these cheaper models are hosted using APIs compatible with OpenAI. It's not a matter of rewiring your electric plug to work with a different socket standard, instead it's just the process of plugging it into a new socket.
> Furthermore, there is a massive geopolitical aspect to it: those who are already on the Western financial and technical stack will get integrated even deeper now.
Certainly the Chinese models appear to be some of the best when it comes to competition, but they aren't the only ones. There are European models and other US based models which all run for cheaper.
Re: AI is slowing down
#96Zitron is in the business of content creation and not successful predictions. It doesn't matter how many times he (and several others around) will say the end is here, they have to be right only once.
BTW, one thing for sure he is right about are the economics, as of today there is no way these massive investments are gone be paid.
Re: AI is slowing down
#97Zitron is begging for a collapse at this point. Yes, his macro analysis correctly identifies a massive financial risk but his incessant pessimism completely misses the incredible ground-level utility that many of us on HN celebrate every day through undeniable, massive productivity gains. At this point I'm trying to believe there's a middle ground where the level of individual capability this unlocks, leads to major…
He has also consistently demonstrated, at least to me, that he doesn't really understand how inference works from a technical perspective, which weakens much of his core thesis for why there should be a collapse. I do value having some naysayers in the mix generally, because we do need balanced critique in what is otherwise a very frothy hype cycle. I just don't think he's making sound arguments, and that's even assu…
> that he doesn't really understand how inference works from a technical perspective
Could you share what tells about it? I.e. where he was wrong about it?
Re: AI is slowing down
#98Earlier quoted context omitted.
What I suspect isn't that AI goes somewhere, but I do think that the cutting edge companies like Anthropic and OpenAI are in a very precarious position. They don't have very much of a moat and the competition has been catching up quick while spending a lot less doing so. IMO, the main thing keeping them alive right now is name recognition. If I were to make a prediction, it's that ultimately these cheaper models are…
The moat is the infrastructure and lock-in. Similar to AWS or anything else. Small data centers can't compete, and similarly people without massive compute won't be able to either (at least not on the enterprise level.) You might get a few edge models, but for huge businesses they will be using OpenAI and Anthropic (and Google/Microsoft/Amazon, etc). The biggest competitors aren't small models, they are just the trad…
> The biggest competitors aren't small models
I disagree. Mainly because those small models are exactly what erode away the moat of needing a giant data center. Those smaller models have been proving themselves to not be far of from the SOTA models.
As OpenAI and Anthropic look to raise their prices, businesses will be much more compelled to looking at cheaper models. And if the narrative is "do the same as you did with OpenAI at 1/20th the cost" that's going to sell to a lot of businesses.
It certainly cuts into what exactly these companies can sell in general. For example, if I wanted to integrate AI into a product I'd almost certainly not chose OpenAI or Anthropic. That's because they are simply way too expensive and what they'd give me is a lot less. We've actually ran into just this. We needed a classifier for a lot of records, we picked a free model because, as you can imagine, we didn't need something as good as what OpenAI and Anthopic offered and free works.
Re: AI is slowing down
#99Whenever I read these kind of articles about AI financials, I'm reminded of identical screeds I read about Uber a few years ago. They were angrily insistent that Uber was a scam company run by criminals and charlatans and could never, ever become profitable or make money for its investors. It was a house of cards that would come crashing down sooner or later, and take everyone's money with it. Now it's 2026. Uber sti…
Uber used the classic triple-E philosophy of Microsoft and entered a market that was ripe for disruption -- many cities lacked reliable taxi service entirely, others were cartels that fixed prices. They undercut prices to an extreme degree, subsidized fares, and when it either drove local taxi companies out of business and spurred widespread adoption as the default, it had a captive market and duopoly with Lyft which…
Absolutely. Even these days, Uber really only has one or two viable competitors. With any 3rd one in a far distant 3rd. Meanwhile, swapping which AI I’m using is as easy as clicking a dropdown. Hardly comparable to a physical car ride.
Re: AI is slowing down
#100Earlier quoted context omitted.
It is not just about cheaper models; it is about integration with the economy. These models are building deep integrations into companies and the entire economy. Once that stabilizes, it will be like the electricity grid—pumping tokens to fuel decision-making across the entire global society. Good luck unplugging from that. Furthermore, there is a massive geopolitical aspect to it: those who are already on the Wester…
> These models are building deep integrations into companies and the entire economy. Once that stabilizes, it will be like the electricity grid—pumping tokens to fuel decision-making across the entire global society. Good luck unplugging from that. Much like the electric grid, what we are seeing is a convergence on standard APIs. For example, most of these cheaper models are hosted using APIs compatible with OpenAI.…
I see your point, but having worked as a consultant for a few years, I think most companies will opt to stay once things are stable. Once these systems are functional, nobody wants to touch them.
I remember one government project where we wanted to migrate a system from COBOL to a modern stack. The requirement was for the UI to stay exactly the same as the old green terminal; the evaluation criterion was pixel-perfect proximity to the original. We literally had to build terminals using web tech.
These models are not the same as each other. Once they are integrated and working, the incentive to change them is incredibly low. So really, the race is about who can integrate deeper, wider, and faster over the next couple of years—that is what will determine the long-term winners.
This is the exact same playbook we saw with social networks. There is a reason why we have only a handful of them dominating globally, and guess what? It's not because of the tech.