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32GB of DDR5 now costs $375 – AI shortage continues to squeeze PC building

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Re: 32GB of DDR5 now costs $375 – AI shortage continues to squeeze PC building

#411

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hah, yes, I have stuck to relatively classic 2.5D and 3D games that work on current iGPUs. It's nearly a nostalgia thing since I met Doom in college. I struggle with the gaming hardware ROI, when I see how things become obsolete. E.g. my work bought me a Titan-X in 2015 for numerical/image processing work. Ten years later my Ryzen 7840u had nearly the same GFLOPs, though of course with less memory bandwidth. It also…

> I struggle with the gaming hardware ROI, when I see how things become obsolete. E.g. my work bought me a Titan-X in 2015 for numerical/image processing work. Ten years later my Ryzen 7840u had nearly the same GFLOPs, 10 years is an eternity in computer hardware. The idea that you should be able to get 7+ years from your hardware is a more recent thing. Imagine comparing the 2.8 Ghz Pentium 4 you could get in 2002 w…

I was well aware of the progress rates. But, not being tied to Windows, I have a different perspective on computer utility. As a kid, I used word processors and games on CP/M, Amiga, Apple II, and DOS before Windows 3.0, and then I got into Linux and stayed there. Basic "productivity" was always possible in my view, whether we're talking WordStar, WordPerfect, MacWrite, MS Word, AMI Pro, Libre Office, or the current cloud document editors.

I encountered subsequent Windows and Mac versions in work environments, but mostly kept them at arms length. I didn't embed myself the different Windows or Mac eras. Instead, I always had the same baseline, internet-connected machine experience with a similar environment of CLI, Emacs, X Windows, C programming, shell, Python, and other scripting languages like Scheme and Common LISP. The web arrived with Mosaic and evolved long with the content. Things like FTP sites, gopher, and USENET fell by the wayside.

But, the entire hardware history with Linux was a lot more incremental, overlapping, or blurry as far as different capabilities or needs. E.g. SMP, multi-core, large files, 3D acceleration, 64 bit, high speed networks, LCD monitors and associated video output formats. You could chase these different bits to your heart's content, but could also run for a long time with the same basic kit.

Due to CS in college and my career, I always had exposure to a range of IP networking technologies. My work computers were connected to the internet via ethernet and quite high speed WAN uplinks, while home went through the sequence of POTS, ISDN, ADSL, and cable modem. I was using Linux on Laptops, and we had WiFi at work since its very early days around 1997. We were also early adopters of 1000-BaseT in the LAN, so I remember the days when our data transfers were often limited by computer speed rather than trivially saturating the link.

To me, the increases in RAM and disk space over those decades were the most notable. I could do the same kinds of algorithmic work, but data sizes could be bigger. You can often let a program run longer, but a limited working-set size is a fundamental issue.

Of course, there were commensurate speed increases to make practical use of that extra space. I.e. how long does it take to transmit, store, and process these larger data that would exploit it? The realtime threshold brings associated eras. When was it practical to record/store/playback WAV audio, MP3, MPEG video, etc.

Re: 32GB of DDR5 now costs $375 – AI shortage continues to squeeze PC building

#413
post #336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The games from 15-25 years ago are also great, especially the ones still available those are the good games. CS 1.5, OpenTTD, AoE2, the likes.. Fancier graphics doesn't make games better. Gameplay, stories and jokes do.

Fancy graphics won't make a bad game good, but they'll make a great game into a cinematic masterpiece. Examples: Cyberpunk 2077 (Once all the bugs were worked out, I recognize it was dogshit on release), Baldur's Gate 3, Expedition 33. Would they be great games even with 15-year old graphical fidelity? Sure. But the stunning graphics definitely elevates the experience, especially in the case of Cyberpunk 2077. When y…

Also, fancy 2D graphics were possible decades ago. Only fancy 3D graphics have serious requirements for today's hardware.

Re: 32GB of DDR5 now costs $375 – AI shortage continues to squeeze PC building

#414
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is textbook negative externalities, of the AI buildout on everyone who isn't using RAM/GPUs for AI, of the use of electricity and water on anyone who isn't using it for AI. The cynic in me thinks this will go down in history alongside asbestos, leaded gasoline/paint, and the opioid crisis.

People want this, the demand is there. Like clockwork, people naturally want to have their cake and to eat it too, so there will be the incessant complaining about the externalities. Half the people lack the brainpower to see the good and bad are intrinsically linked, and the other half just like complaining. But at least for now, both halves aren't pulling back (in fact it's increasing), and money, not complaining,…

This is a late reply, but the point isn't aggregate demand. RAM price inflation directly harms people who have no stake in AI and made no choice to participate in this buildout. That's the definition of a negative externality, costs borne by non-parties. "Money steers the ship" is exactly the issue, when prices don't capture full social costs, markets like the AI suppliers will overproduce. Whether AI ultimately proves beneficial is a separate question from whether current pricing (of AI) reflects true costs.

For the record I'm leading the AI program at my company and am very vested in the positive side. But one can also be aware there are downsides, more so than complaining.

Re: 32GB of DDR5 now costs $375 – AI shortage continues to squeeze PC building

#415
post #147
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is textbook negative externalities, of the AI buildout on everyone who isn't using RAM/GPUs for AI, of the use of electricity and water on anyone who isn't using it for AI. The cynic in me thinks this will go down in history alongside asbestos, leaded gasoline/paint, and the opioid crisis.

>The cynic in me thinks this will go down in history alongside asbestos, leaded gasoline/paint, and the opioid crisis. Can you elaborate? Leaded gasoline is estimated to have contributed to the deaths of like tens (hundreds?) of millions of people. Asbestos probably millions. Why would high RAM prices be remembered alongside these events?

Sorry for the late reply, I regret the dramatic comparison to obvious physical harm. The argument is we tend to recognize industry-scale externalities after the fact, and that AI infrastructure costs are currently underpriced and borne by all, including non-participants. Gasoline with lead and asbestos both had great positive impact that we don't talk about anymore, because they are lessons in the negative side not being properly accounted for until much later.
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