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Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

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Re: Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

#871

Post by jingpostmedia »

throwaway2037 wrote: post #855
oezi wrote: post #826

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China's equities aren't really tradable. If they were it would be nice.

This is incorrect. There are lots of ETFs that now directly hold China A shares. CSI 300 index is the equiv of S&P 500 in mainland China. Also, via HK Stock Exchange, you can buy China A shares via "northbound connect". A broker like Interactive Brokers supports this type of trading and the bizarre/special currency (CNH) required for it. That said, I excluded China because it is not developed and has awful transparen…

[flagged]

Re: Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

#872

Post by davedx »

Gareth321 wrote: post #580
davedx wrote: post #484

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Start gradually converting your equity to bonds is the standard advice on that timeframe. If you're dreading equity drawdowns, that's what fixed income is for.

Bonds are no longer recommended. Current research indicates 100% equities to be the best composition leading up to, and past, retirement. To point, the economic uncertainties around geopolitics, AI, and war, plus irresponsible debt spending by governments and the prospect of QE (and higher inflation), is pushing long term rates steadily higher. There’s a reasonable chance that 30y treasuries are nearing 6% by the end…

"Current research" Citation needed. Multiple, given the extraordinary claim.

Re: Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

#873

Post by tsimionescu »

omgwtfbyobbq wrote: post #793
throwawaycan wrote: post #763

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bus Tesla isn’t in anything looking like a growth phase

It might be. It might not be. That's where the money is or isn't. I think the mature part of their business is 3/Y, energy storage, and maybe cybertruck, although I also think it's too early to call it because it depends on lower cost cell in house cell production and they only started that recently. In the near term, the growth part is Semi, cybercab, FSD, lithium cell production, and maybe cybertruck. In the long t…

Semi is DoA, FSD has been 1 year away for 10 years now give or take, cybercab is flailing, cybertruck same, and China is eating everyone's lunch on lithium cells.

Re: Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

#874

Post by SkiFire13 »

Octoth0rpe wrote: post #862
SkiFire13 wrote: post #857

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're trying to justify SpaceX's valuation using Starlink, but it's clear from the S-1 that it makes up only for ~5% of SpaceX estimated TAM.

Many people think their claimed TAM is total fiction, and attempting an actual realistic TAM relies far more heavily on starlink. From morningstar: > Our base-case forecast entails $56 billion in revenue for Starlink in these niche and growth areas by 2035, representing about 45% of the identifiable market we’ve sized source: https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/spacex-what-investors-nee...

> Many people think their claimed TAM is total fiction, and attempting an actual realistic TAM relies far more heavily on starlink.

Then either the TAM for Starlink is ~20x bigger than reported by SpaceX (I doubt they would downplay themselves in such a way) or the whole SpaceX TAM is ~5x smaller (much more realistic, if not more than that)

Re: Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

#875

Post by inglor_cz »

XorNot wrote: post #419
inglor_cz wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am surprised how many people say that there is no reason to put data centers in orbit, when, at the same time, data centers are becoming the hated thing du jour all over the US and politicians left and right (but mostly left-of-center) are touting bans and restrictions to their electorates. It is definitely to escape most political pressures on Earth. They will never be able to sidestep the US feds, but aside from…

People don't want to live near data centers. But companies find it logistically cheaper and easier to keep proposing to build them near existing towns and infrastructure, and then deal with regulatory fights rather then picking an isolated area and running an extension of high voltage lines out to them. Which tells you something about why space data centers makes no sense.

"rather then picking an isolated area and running an extension of high voltage lines out to them."

Does not this usually mean extending/upgrading roads and other infrastructure as well?

IDK how this works in the US, but in most of Europe, a "linear" project like this, which crosses multiple jurisdictions, usually runs into more resistance, not less. The multitude of people and special interests along the line compounds.

In some places, special legislation has been enacted that exempts such linear projects from detailed review and opposition, otherwise pipelines, grid upgrades etc. would stall for decades in courts.

Re: Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

#876

Post by dpacmittal »

arder wrote: post #856
est31 wrote: post #164

These deals are part of how the AI economy operates. Amodei has explained this in his recent Patel podcast. 1. Building datacenters takes time. Months, if not years. They take billions of investment. 2. AI revenue is highly unpredictable. Sure, you can make predictions, but maybe your competitor releases a better model 2 weeks after your release, maybe the new model you built isn't as much better, maybe the chinese m…

This is only a partial solution to a problem though. If x ai fails to build a good model they rent to Google. But that means all these companies are incentivised to build as much compute as possible. If they win their margins look great, if they lose they still make money. BUT at some point aggregate supply will outstrip aggregate demand and the bottom will fall out of the market.

By the time bottom falls out, they will all have done their IPOs and offloaded the risk on to the public. Govt will be forced to bail them out.

Re: Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

#877

Post by frm88 »

laughing_man wrote: post #702
delecti wrote: post #505

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, launch costs alone make it infeasible, and power being "free" exacerbates the cost (gotta get all those panels up there). Cooling is also dramatically harder, plus shielding, and it makes repair/upgrade basically impossible. I'm not going to assert that large scale space compute will never happen, but I feel confident saying it won't happen this decade or next.

When they get the kinks out of Starship, launch costs will be dramatically lower than we're used to thinking. They'll probably be using it to launch Starlink sats in earnest next year, so I don't think that would be the long leg. I used to think heat would be a problem, too, but I've come around. It's a consideration, but it's doable. Remember we already have some pretty high power sats up there, so it's not somethin…

Things to think about: the russian satellites currently already in orbit and being tested to jam global GPS signals: https://youtu.be/tz23G_UXCGA?si=Jkg7hYnwER39-FXf (Veritasium). In all these sci-fi space datacentre scenarios, has anybody considered that astrolaw is in no way currently equipped to deal with datacenters in space? Neither are international relations.

Re: Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

#878

Post by holoduke »

rootusrootus wrote: post #336
runako wrote: post #281

Since the S-1 filing, xAI has taken over and is likely the largest share of revenue. I would estimate that ~95%+ of xAI revenue, and 100% of its profit, is from renting their datacenters. This is a datacenter REIT bolted onto a social media company bolted onto launch business bolted onto a niche ISP. The expected price to sales is ~100x. The best datacenter REITs trade at ~10x and pay a dividend, which SpaceX does no…

TSLA has a forward PE of ~200x. That is probably the most logical comparison with SpaceX. Proof that the market can stay irrational for quite a long time. It fills me with a bit of dread about the future of the market. I am 10 years out from retirement, have a bit over 1M sitting in that market, and I wonder if it will implode in the meantime. I am fairly committed to the "invest like a dead man" (i.e. index funds, n…

Inflation is covering all the inflated valuations eventually.

Re: Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

#879

Post by bradleyjg »

queuebert wrote: post #792
bradleyjg wrote: post #745

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TIPS are yielding 2.1-2.75% _real_ across the curve from 10 to 30 years out.

Worth noting the cost of dealing with Treasury's absolute dumpster fire of a website, though.

I bonds have to be bought from that website but tips can be bought from dealers.

Re: Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

#880

Post by LadyCailin »

mullingitover wrote: post #859
LadyCailin wrote: post #853

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not unless the constitution changes first. You have to be born in America to run for president.

If you bribe five members of the Supreme Court, the Constitution can be whatever you want it to be.

Sure, and Denmark might sneak attack Maine. But what’s the point of wild speculation.
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