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New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker

randalolson.com

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Re: New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker

#61
I wonder what the impact of the rising base rate of employees with college degrees is. In 1992, a fresh college graduate had better educational attainment than 42% of the labor force. In 2016 (latest date I found numbers for), that was down to 32%. https://www.bls.gov/spotlight/2017/educational-attainment-of...

That shifting distribution would somewhat reduce the advantage of a college degree against the average member of the labor force.

Re: New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker

#62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Telling me that it’s harder to get a professional job that I’m qualified for than it is to walk up to a McDonald’s or whatever and get a job is not shocking. This is so very easily said but how else is this supposed to work, exactly? People have to start somewhere , and McDonalds experience doesn't count for any specialized job. Fuck, the "McDonalds-tier" jobs will often turn down graduates because they'll obviousl…

> or the entire industry gets sent offshore. Assuming there are any seniors offshore either

I think the management answer to this is that you can just hire 9 offshore not-seniors for less money, and that somehow equals the experience of a single onshore senior. In that sense it's a kind of the experience equivalent of the 9 women/1month == baby analogy, and obviously wrong. Unless you're in management.

Re: New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker

#63

The story here isn't college grads as much as young people in general. We are eating our young. We stopped building new housing, which turns housing into a transfer of wealth from those who don't have it (the young) to those who have been holding it (the not young). We have eliminated entry level positions, saddled college graduates with massive amounts of debt by defunding universities, and created great security fo…

Everywhere I look in my area we are building new housing. But more people keep moving to the desirable locations with jobs etc.

EDIT: I live in one of the 10 fastest growing metro areas of the US. In the last 4 years my county added over 60,000 homes but about 130,000 new people moved here. I drive around and see new development after new development. But more people move here because of the good jobs, schools, etc.

I can drive 2 hours away to some economically depressed areas. Houses are a lot cheaper because the population moves away to the bigger cities for jobs, education, etc. So sure you can have a cheap house in an undesirable location.

Re: New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker

#64

Since 2019, although now the gap is higher than ever (1.4%). College doesn’t prepare you for work as effectively as work, but it also teaches interesting things and prepares for academia (graduate school).

I'd argue the value of college has been steadily declining ever since we tried to push more and more people through it. When it's a filter it's a good signal, when it's a participation trophy far less so.

Re: New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker

#65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> or the entire industry gets sent offshore. Assuming there are any seniors offshore either

I think the management answer to this is that you can just hire 9 offshore not-seniors for less money, and that somehow equals the experience of a single onshore senior. In that sense it's a kind of the experience equivalent of the 9 women/1month == baby analogy, and obviously wrong. Unless you're in management.

More or less correct. It's not that management believes in "9 offshore juniors", it's just that they don't know (nor care to confirm) who's actually working for them at the outsourcing firm.

The combined incentive of cost cutting at the outsourcing firm and foolish MBAs in the west opting for the cheapest outsourcing means that the offshore does actually employ juniors, who do build up the experience to become seniors.

Re: New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker

#66

This is the easiest niche to pick on but I am mid career for cybersecurity. I spend a decent amount of time trying to advise people away from this career field for college. So so so so so many people are going to college for cyber not realizing when they graduate, they are in totality unemployable. Really I'm not sure how new people to tech could even enter the industry, it seems like at the lower levels the entire i…

I personally as a general rule don’t hire people who work in cybersecurity if they were not traditional developers first. The chances of you understanding “cybersecurity” without also understanding how general software works is extremely low.

Kind of funny, my cousin studied software development, then she pivoted to cyber security last minute because she was uncomfortable about finding work, she's been through a few different companies so far, so I guess it worked out for her.

Re: New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker

#67

The story here isn't college grads as much as young people in general. We are eating our young. We stopped building new housing, which turns housing into a transfer of wealth from those who don't have it (the young) to those who have been holding it (the not young). We have eliminated entry level positions, saddled college graduates with massive amounts of debt by defunding universities, and created great security fo…

It's not just our young—that just receives disproportionate attention. The entire country is being actively looted under the guise of "economic growth".

Anyway, increasing supply isn't going to solve our many problems leading to widespread homelessness and financial insecurity, but the Ezra Klein dunces aren't ready for that conversation yet.

Re: New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker

#68
post #50

Now I want to see the males/females ratio in that graph, I bet most of the unemployed are males, which is something weird I noticed where everyone who’s complaining about the job market are men, meanwhile women are hired and sometimes working two jobs on top of that.

The difference is only 11% of men versus 10.5% of women age 16-24 (PDF): https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/youth.pdf

That’s probably seasonal/part time/temp jobs given the age bracket, which is another something I noticed, there’s barely any deep studies across the ages. I think there are multiple reasons why females are more employed, but on top of them is the rise of service and nurturing economy (services healthcare etc) compared to other sectors, and these industries are dominated by women, and since there’s a general decline in general in say production or manufacturing, these economies boom, I mean, who’s gonna take care of boomers who dominate the wealth in general?

Re: New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker

#69

The story here isn't college grads as much as young people in general. We are eating our young. We stopped building new housing, which turns housing into a transfer of wealth from those who don't have it (the young) to those who have been holding it (the not young). We have eliminated entry level positions, saddled college graduates with massive amounts of debt by defunding universities, and created great security fo…

Everywhere I look in my area we are building new housing. But more people keep moving to the desirable locations with jobs etc. EDIT: I live in one of the 10 fastest growing metro areas of the US. In the last 4 years my county added over 60,000 homes but about 130,000 new people moved here. I drive around and see new development after new development. But more people move here because of the good jobs, schools, etc.…

There's a huge disconnect between perceived amount of building and actual need for housing, in my experience. People are used to seeing nothing, so when even a single building goes up they think it seems like a lot.

In my downtown area, there has been a trickle of a new building with a few hundred apartments per year for the past four years, and people are freaked out at that tiny amount of new housing in a city of 50,000 people. in reality we need at least double that amount of housing per year, but that small amount has people shocked and thinking we're building way too much.

It's been far too normalized that we shouldn't build housing, and it's hurting society at a very deep level and causing massive inequality while blocking access to opportunity.

Re: New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker

#70

This is the easiest niche to pick on but I am mid career for cybersecurity. I spend a decent amount of time trying to advise people away from this career field for college. So so so so so many people are going to college for cyber not realizing when they graduate, they are in totality unemployable. Really I'm not sure how new people to tech could even enter the industry, it seems like at the lower levels the entire i…

I’m just a swe, but I kinda thought cyber is a good place to be, since the proliferation of insecure vibecoded apps.

What is a cybersecurity professional going to do about a bunch of vulnerabilities in an app that someone else decided to deploy on a network they are responsible for?

99% of cybersecurity in the commercial sector is a box checking compliance exercise.

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