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Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

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Re: Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

#561
post #379

Earlier quoted context omitted.

P/E is price to earning. Price to revenue is P/S. AER's P/S is like 3, so the discrepancy is much worse than you think. Sidenote: 3 is actually high. 94 is absolutely ridiculous.

> Sidenote: 3 is actually high. Do you mean low? AAPL has a ps of 10.

Nothing about Apple is representative of a normal business.

Re: Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

#562
post #484

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Start gradually converting your equity to bonds is the standard advice on that timeframe. If you're dreading equity drawdowns, that's what fixed income is for.

This is absolutely terrible advice and is out of touch with modern financial understanding. Bonds feel psychologically safer, but lead to failure more often than total market equity portfolios, even when you account for market crashes. https://youtu.be/p25PPBgMiEk

I agree with everything in the video you linked (which is not surprising, given it's Ben Felix). That includes the parts about equities being less risky than bonds in very important ways, but also the parts about behavioral loss tolerance and risk capacity, and how they can indicate higher bond allocation.

So I disagree that "If you're dreading equity drawdowns, that's what fixed income is for" is absolutely terrible advice.

Re: Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

#563
post #347

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, the value of the stock for people who essentially do not have any meaningful control of the business must essentially be tied to the expectation of some liquidity event down the line -- future cash flows. So this could come in the form of dividends, sale of the stock, bankruptcy proceedings, or a purchase of the business. If I knew for certain (big if) that a business would never have a liquidity event and I co…

But you can transfer your ownership.

And you can sell your tulip. But if the mania stopped and you suddenly _couldn’t_ find another person to sell it to, would you now be upset you paid $5000 for a tulip? What’s the value at which you wouldn’t be upset? Ok, that’s the intrinsic value of a tulip to you.

Re: Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

#564
post #561
post #379

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Sidenote: 3 is actually high. Do you mean low? AAPL has a ps of 10.

Nothing about Apple is representative of a normal business.

It’s an interesting phenomenon: being Apple is one of their key sales drivers. The brand is worth more than the business itself.

Re: Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

#565
post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SpaceX is valued at that revenue multiple because of its expected revenue growth rate. This deal is part of that revenue growth. So the new revenue would be already partially or even fully priced-in. Perhaps it reduces uncertainty around the growth rate, but expectations were already sky-high, as shown by the multiple!

A cynic might wonder given Musk's implausible trajectory and questionable associations whether the X project is primarily a grift and/or money laundering project that happens to do high-profile tech, and the primary aim is to pump the stock and hope some other opportunity to pump it further arrives in the future. Otherwise a dump works too. There's plenty of money to be made from carefully timed shorting. The entire…

It's an opportunity to pay off early investors who are unhappy with him cratering Twitter, xAI, etc.

Re: Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

#566

This is a masterful piece of financial engineering by Google and SpaceX. Google purchased 10% of SpaceX over a decade ago. After dilution they probably own around 5%. SpaceX is valued at a whopping 94x revenue. This deal increases SpaceX's revenue by $11 billion per year. If SpaceX maintains this revenue multiplier, then this single deal boosts SpaceX's valuation by 94 x 11 billion = $1 trillion dollars. Google owns…

> SpaceX is valued at a whopping 94x revenue. This deal increases SpaceX's revenue by $11 billion per year. If SpaceX maintains this revenue multiplier, then this single deal boosts SpaceX's valuation by 94 x 11 billion = $1 trillion dollars.

This isn’t how valuations work. The PE ratio isn’t fixed. It doesn’t scale with revenue. It’s based on projected future growth. This kind of deal is expected, meaning this deal likely won’t move SpaceX’s market cap much. Certainly not by anywhere close to $1T. That’s +60% of the entire pre-IPO market cap.

Google is doing this because they need more compute and TSMC is booked out for years.

Re: Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

#567

> $920 million per month from October 2026 through June 2029 for access to “approximately 110,000 NVIDIA GPUs, CPUs, memory, and other related components. That's about $8,400/month per "component" is that in the ballpark at all with what a month of dedicated/exclusive access to an NVIDIA GPU would go for?

That's roughly 11.66$ per hour per GPU, which is above the price that Google Cloud is reselling them at if you commit for 36 months: https://getdeploying.com/gpus/nvidia-b200

That's for standalone servers. xAI has something that nobody else has. The single largest interconnected cluster[1]. For inference it doesn't really matter, but for training that networking is crucial.

[1] Probably, there could be undisclosed clusters owned by other companies.

Re: Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

#568
post #508

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is one of the columns. The headline makes my point succinctly. Your paraphrase of the column misses the crucial point. A Nasdaq index fund doesn’t buy a company unless it is in the Nasdaq. Under the old rules SPCEX was ineligible for listing. Now Nasdaq index funds all have to buy. Index funds by nature do not selectively buy stocks, if the stock is in the index, they buy, that’s their mandate. That’s the game,…

[flagged]

No where did they say anything antisemitic, but you further diminishing the meaning of that word—just like BB has already—only enables actual antisemitism. I frequently see that label being weaponized, especially against other Jews. I see it be used when people merely report on what the President has said, or against the Pope calling for peace. At some point, I'm inclined to believe people constantly making these false accusations do so knowing it delegitimizes the word.

Re: Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

#569

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are many Not In My Orbit people on this very page. Many current national politicians would be happy to vote AI out of orbit today. Space is not an escape from earthly politics.

> Space is not an escape from earthly politics. Well, Earth orbit isn't.

[deleted]

Re: Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

#570
> compute from its Colossus 1 data center near Memphis, Tennessee, that xAI — now part of SpaceX — originally built for its own artificial intelligence efforts.

Is this the same Memphis data center notorious for burning jet fuel nonstop for power?

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