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Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

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Re: Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

#551

This is a masterful piece of financial engineering by Google and SpaceX. Google purchased 10% of SpaceX over a decade ago. After dilution they probably own around 5%. SpaceX is valued at a whopping 94x revenue. This deal increases SpaceX's revenue by $11 billion per year. If SpaceX maintains this revenue multiplier, then this single deal boosts SpaceX's valuation by 94 x 11 billion = $1 trillion dollars. Google owns…

I wouldn't call it brilliant. It's like cancer cells celebrating how fast they're growing.

Re: Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

#552
post #524

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the problem: The Nasdaq 100 and FTSE Russell made a rule change that allows SpaceX to enter index without mormal time for price discovery. Most index funds have rebalance day just 5 days after IPO. S&P also made rule change for S&P Total Market Index and Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index, but left SP500 intact. Nothing wrong with SpaceX or Anthropic getting into indexes with fair rules, this rule change is pure c…

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What evidence do you have they are not? You've been questioning everyone, please justify your position

Re: Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

#553
post #487

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lol, the dude asking for reporting to justify his oligarch dickriding dismisses patrick boyle in his chat history as just a youtuber while using paywalled links to support his position. My theory is better because it isn’t ignorant of the billionaire dynamics in play.

Criticizing Bloomberg as a poor source for finance-related reporting is kind of hilarious, but then I guess your position does seem vastly more credible when viewed through a lens that also rejects Bloomberg.

newly created alt because apparently my main account has hurt too many feefees to allow me to respond to a discussion I'm having. "posting too fast" my swingin dick...

I'm not criticizing bloomberg, i'm criticizing you for posting paywalled links to support your position in an open discussion.

Given I'm bailing on this convo now because hackers news is a shite application getting in the way of people trying to talk, let me respond to our sibling thread with the closet thing my opinion has to evidence: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=smH. IMO we remain at an all time high of financial flimflammery as a portion of our GDP and there have been a number of recessions triggered by the financial sectors malfeasance during my lifetime because of it.

Re: Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

#554
post #458

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Passive investors and retirement accounts are heavily in on automatic indexing. This deal has been pushed hard to be included prematurely in the indexes to the point that Nasdaq changed the rules. The accusation is that these changes were made so that index funds will buy this stock automatically far earlier than they would have previously. Given the… uh… astronomical asking price, it looks like SPCEX is meant for El…

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> buyers decide the prices they'll buy at.

Not if they're index funds. They buy at the price it is, until they've satisfied their holdings represent the appropriate share of the market. Which, pre-IPO and early-days-after-IPO, is likely to not be accurate to the long-term price.

Re: Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

#556

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s the story, but it’s bullshit. The underlying intrinsic value of a stock can only be materialized if the company liquidates and you receive a share of the sell off of its assets. How many publicly traded companies abruptly decide they’re tired of the business, stop in their tracks, and liquidate their assets? This only really happens if the company is acquired or if it goes bankrupt. Acquisition is the closest…

It's not purely the liquidation value, it's the idea that the liquidation value will continue to increase, or profits will be paid out to owners.

Yes, the profits it pays out are the one thing that actually makes sense, but the premise of the grandparent post was to ask what a share is worth _without_ dividends. And the answer is that shares are intrinsically worth very little. Liquidation value (actual liquidation - bankruptcy or going out of business or an exchange closure) is rarely ever practically realized for common investors. Even if you’re trading on the discounted expectation of a larger liquidation pie, nearly 0% is still nearly 0%.

Voting rights are also not valuable by themselves - they are only useful to steer the company towards greater future payouts, which means you are appealing to some other entitlement to value.

If you zoom out, a company is a temporary arrangement of people and things that makes more money than it spends _over time_. They are not really designed to accumulate and store value in and of themselves. The machines the employees use to do the work is a small fraction of the overall utility of a living breathing business. The valuable part is the capacity of this techno-social organism to reliably and continuously make profit, which is far greater than the sum of its parts. So if the profit that’s being earned is never paid out to stakeholders, then there’s no point in being a stakeholder. If the profit is redirected to make the organism bigger, then you are trading now-dollars for future-dollars which must be appropriately discounted. If everyone expects a company to do this forever, then the correct price is what the expected liquidation share should be, and that number is basically zero.

Yet, stocks that do not pay dividends exist at high valuations. What that tells you is that modern day stock trading is tulips: the lion’s share of the value derives from a temporarily stable, shared, _correct_ perception that someone else will buy it back from you.

The reality is that general investors are the greater fools in this arrangement. The prevalence of preferred stock is a tell that there are owners and there are “owners”. What we should do is recognize this and admit that the big initial investors and employees themselves are the owners, because they are the group small enough to actually realize liquidation value (should it ever be necessary). The public investors have no realistic claim on that value, so their shares should be more clearly labeled as dividend rights, which would cause them to be priced as such.

Re: Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

#557
post #458

Earlier quoted context omitted.

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> buyers decide the prices they'll buy at. Not if they're index funds. They buy at the price it is, until they've satisfied their holdings represent the appropriate share of the market. Which, pre-IPO and early-days-after-IPO, is likely to not be accurate to the long-term price.

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Re: Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

#558
post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Google renting infra from xAI, I did not see that coming. Actually that seems to be fairly logical? Hardware is what xAI has , and it's in great demand. So sell what makes you money. The real story here is that that xAI hardware is going to be running Gemini and not Grok. Which is to say: Grok basically failed as a frontier AI and they need to pivot to a business model which makes money. Obviously not everything Mu…

Keep in mind Google also rents GPUs via GCP, so they could be just reselling these to GCP customers? Thing is though, Anthropic was really against the wall with lack of compute pre xAI deal. And tbh, Gemini reliability has been abysmal which probably points to real compute shortages. And nearly _every_ major DC project is really up against it with massive delays, etc. Stargate UAE has been badly affected by the Iran…

> So maybe long term this isn't a great business, but _right now_

Exactly! "Maybe not a long term great business" is exactly the opposite of what you want to buy in an IPO.

This is a "private equity can squeeze out a ton of cash from this asset portfolio" situation, and very much not a "in a few years this will be a trillion dollar business competing with the biggest companies in the world" bet.

Re: Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

#559
post #487

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Criticizing Bloomberg as a poor source for finance-related reporting is kind of hilarious, but then I guess your position does seem vastly more credible when viewed through a lens that also rejects Bloomberg.

newly created alt because apparently my main account has hurt too many feefees to allow me to respond to a discussion I'm having. "posting too fast" my swingin dick... I'm not criticizing bloomberg, i'm criticizing you for posting paywalled links to support your position in an open discussion. Given I'm bailing on this convo now because hackers news is a shite application getting in the way of people trying to talk,…

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Re: Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

#560
post #342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Comparing SpaceX to an aircraft leasing company seems more foolish to me than a 94x multiple. I understand the gist here, but come on. This is a generational company. It’s the only relevant space launch business, and has its tentacles deep in AI infrastructure as well. Maybe the AI bet is foolish — I don’t know — you should short it!

'generational company'? Are you on drugs or so? All of Musks business stuff highly depends on first mover advantage. If people now selling it as a 'generational company' than it becomes even more stupid. He didn't invent an unkown solution he is hiding to transform something into gold, he only put a lot of money into rockets. And the rockets right now don't even have enough payload to have unlimited potential. If Spa…

> All of Musks business stuff highly depends on first mover advantage.

Do they? Out of all of them, I think only one of them really depends on, or even benefits from, first mover advantages: Starlink.

Tesla famously gave away all their patents, and is also being overtaken by Chinese companies with cheaper batteries because batteries are the expensive bit; SpaceX rockets are theoretically well protected because national security regulations >> patent law, but even there lots of Chinese clones popping up; TBC and Neuralink and SolarCity are going nowhere fast; Grok wasn't even the first in its field; Twitter/X is not only in heavy decline but was also always trivially cloneable and the clones are now an open source ecosystem of semi-distributed alternatives; xAI has shown ability to make data centres while pissing off locals but the market for those data centres is other AI companies who also commission their own data centres but found themselves scaling much faster than xAI did.

(Starlink's first mover advantage is "this orbit already contains a satellite").

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