This is a duplicate thread.
Previously: "SpaceX, Other Mega IPOs Denied Fast Index Entry by S&P" - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48405718
S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic
211–220 of 524 posts
Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic
#212Earlier quoted context omitted.
> That is essentially a wealth transfer to the rich. They don't need it. These are not valid arguments. The companies that get added to the S&P are always owned in some fraction by rich people. SpaceX is obviously majorly owned by Elon, but it’s also owned by regular employees, a bunch of private investors and other funds that regular people invest in. > They're not profitable. Right > When they prove they're worth t…
Mostly owned by Elon who has 84% of the voting rights. Completely his entity and it can’t be denied that the value of an interesting space business has been massively inflated by tacking a worthless AI business onto it.
Twitter too, right?
Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic
#213Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The greatest tech revolution by far and people on this site are trying to movie their money away from it. I hope y'all will do an honest retrospective in a year or so. I see this sentiment often, and think it is short-sighted: 1. The tech fails at the goal - profitability is what we see for any tech that augments humans, which isn't anywhere close to satisfying the trillions in debt, busting the market and bleeding…
> The tech succeeds at the goal - humans are mostly not needed anymore other than for menial low-paid work. Economy slows, then almost completely stops. Economy slows or stops when AI robots are producing goods and services for much lower cost than human workers? Perhaps, but I think the obvious next development would be massive deflation: even on welfare or UBI, you would be able to afford the same quantity of goods…
>> humans are mostly not needed anymore other than for menial low-paid work. Economy slows, then almost completely stops.
> Economy slows or stops when AI robots are producing goods and services for much lower cost than human workers?
You can't have an economy without employment.
Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic
#214Earlier quoted context omitted.
Heh. I would not discount narrative so fast. You may not believe it, but it does not mean others don't.
My theory is hedgies and investment banks using semi and ai hype as a liquidity bridge to drop into SpaceX which happens next week. Arm and AMD pumped to insane levels on basically nothing. What proof is there for your narrative versus mine?
> AMD is nothing
What?
SpaceX is the hype not AMD guy
Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic
#215Crazy to see the Twitter behavior here of really smart, well conveyed top level comments replied to by weird propaganda pushing bottom feeders.
HN discussion quality has deteriorated dramatically, especially for anything AI related.
One of my indices of mania. You saw similar comments for crypto, blockchain, NFT, VR.
Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic
#216If you have any doubts, I highly recommend to review the stock price history of GPRO(GoPro), BYND (Beyond Meat), CGC (Canopy Growth), TLRY (Tilray). These are just some somewhat recent IPOs that come to mind, I am sure I am forgetting some. In the case of GPRO, look up their first quarterly reports after the IPO. Pure comedy gold.
This comparison is nuts and invalid. Each of Anthropic/OpenAI/SpaceX has more revenue than the mentioned companies combined at IPO time. Doomers gonna doom
Don't be one of those cluless techbros
Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic
#217Earlier quoted context omitted.
Which is unlikely considering their obligations. I'm a bit more optimistic about SpaceX (and anthropic to a lower degree), but if free models keep improving at the same rate as frontier models, their won't be any profit from AI.
What’s the time horizon do you think for free models matching today’s SOTA on average consumer hardware? I see people building 6k+ machines to run the best of them at the moment, which are behind SOTA by maybe 6 - 12 months or so right now.
I don't think free/open model necessarily means local. I use open code Go for $10/mo for pet projects and deepseek v4 pro is largely comparable to my workflow at work using Claude code. Obviously this wouldn't work for someone wanting to do more than just per projects (I hit my weekly quota 5 days in, on basic usage) but I'm just saying that local doesn't have to be part of the equation
Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic
#218Thank goodness my portfolio is safe from these junk papers.
Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic
#219Earlier quoted context omitted.
> It really is an indication that the stock market is mostly speculative and not concerned about the actual economy Not really. Strong jobs numbers in the midst of 3+ percent inflation means rates should go up. That, in turn, dilates time on future earnings. So making a company's future earnings more-heavily discounted will be a net drag on valuations even if the jobs numbers indicate those numbers, near term and far…
Yep. Job numbers are the “actual economy” – the actual economy is driven by wages and consumption. Stronger wages → stronger consumption → higher demand-pull inflation. But higher inflation implying that “rates should go up” is central bank doctrine. It’s not a general law of how economies function. Central banks intervening with interest rate adjustments is what distorts the prices of equities downward, when inflati…
Agreed about the 2-3% target. Seems like a crazy low target for a country that has been, historically, a strong exporter. Or at least seems to want to be an exporter. I wonder if one of the reasons behind this low target rate is that inflation will ultimately decide how expensive government debt is, since under normal circumstances people will want their bonds to at least pay out enough to cover inflation.
Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic
#220Earlier quoted context omitted.
[flagged]
It's quite clear that there is an effort to engineer mega financial vehicles that index tracking funds are forced to buy. The incentive to do so is massive, and there is nothing illegal about it. As a holder of index funds such as the S&P, I'd much prefer that these vehicles are excluded for at least some period of time to ensure that the greater fool isn't simply my index portfolio.
> It's quite clear
In the same way 9/11 was quite clearly an inside job.
Alternatively, a crop of big companies with real, potentially world-changing technology are going public.
This isn’t exactly pets.com we’re talking about.