India's surprise baby bust • Hacker News Board

Re: India's surprise baby bust

#801

Post by throwaway2037 » Sat, Jun 06, 2026, 11:11 AM UTC

scoofy wrote: post #569

accurrent wrote: post #553

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that affordable housing is crucial, but the idea that this is 'impossible in a democratic society' ignores global realities. Several democracies heavily subsidize housing—look at Vienna's social housing model or Singapore's HDB system. Yet, this has not solved the birthrate problem; Singapore’s fertility rate recently hit a record low of 0.87. Ironically, the highest birth rates globally occur where economic…

"Effectively impossible" does not mean "impossible." Yes, Vienna's housing policy is effective... It's also the only place in the world that manages it. I would argue that it is ideal , but nearly impossible to implement. We can't escape the fact that Vienna operates what is effectively a sovereign wealth fund to create all that housing, which works with the subsidiaries of Austria's actual sovereign wealth fund in d…

Not to repeat myself too much here, but Japan also handling housing very well for two reasons: (1) NIMBYism does not exist by law (and practice) and (2) there is almost zero protected homes for historical/architectural reasons. As a result, you can build and build and build in Japan. There are few limitations except a uniform national building code. Tear down and rebuild (bigger) is constant in big cities in Japan.

Re: India's surprise baby bust

#802

Post by inglor_cz » Sat, Jun 06, 2026, 11:12 AM UTC

bdangubic wrote: post #403

decimalenough wrote: post #395

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gender does matter though. Men can sire offspring into their 60s, women have marked decline in fertility starting from 32 and hit an absolute wall (menopause) by their fifties.

Men offspring-ing in their 60's and dying 10 years later is perfect way to build a society where kids get to grow up without their fathers when they need them the most

Then again, they inherit a nice house at the beginning of their adulthood instead of being a landlord's squeezed client for decades.

There are trade-offs everywhere.

Re: India's surprise baby bust

#803

Post by debarshri » Sat, Jun 06, 2026, 11:13 AM UTC

sensanaty wrote: post #783

I'm in the Netherlands, and my partner and I don't want kids for a multitude of reasons, but the biggest one for us and many other friends of ours is the obscene costs of having a child. Even the ones that really want kids simply cannot afford to have one, because the price of living is simply absurd. I'm extremely fortunate to be working at a large tech company and I have good money, but even with my income having a…

My friend works in large tech; think SV, a satellite office in Amsterdam. Both of them earn greatly. With two kids, they literally don't have any saving at the end of the month. With 52% taxes and mortgage, even with child benefits. of course you don't pay a lot for the education, but the daily operational cost is very high. Small unplanned activity in NL can make you go in the red. Rising energy and grocery prices are not helping either.

Reddit for expat in netherlands is full these posts.

Re: India's surprise baby bust

#804

Post by inglor_cz » Sat, Jun 06, 2026, 11:14 AM UTC

Barrin92 wrote: post #643

niemandhier wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is the idea floating around in Europe, to nullify people’s student debts if they have children. So two kids during university would mean even the measly amount you have to pay back for an European subsided degree would be gone. I do hope that will be put into effect. I also believe that this will be better for gender equality than all the other measures taken so far. I was in too many meetings, where the CV of…

Hungary spent 5%(!) of its GDP on direct child benefits and instituted a lifelong tax exemption for women with 3 or more children and the birth rate rose by... ~0.15 for a few years and then dropped again. For comparison I assume you're German given the username, here this would amount to 300 billion per year, which is about 100x what the government spends on BAföG (the mentioned federal student aid). I genuinely won…

Hungary might also have a problem with too many young Hungarian women living abroad. It is hard to raise fertility if your locally present fertile population has already tanked.

Re: India's surprise baby bust

#805

Post by vasac » Sat, Jun 06, 2026, 11:14 AM UTC

koolba wrote: post #786

sensanaty wrote: post #783

I'm in the Netherlands, and my partner and I don't want kids for a multitude of reasons, but the biggest one for us and many other friends of ours is the obscene costs of having a child. Even the ones that really want kids simply cannot afford to have one, because the price of living is simply absurd. I'm extremely fortunate to be working at a large tech company and I have good money, but even with my income having a…

> Even the ones that really want kids simply cannot afford to have one, because the price of living is simply absurd. Perhaps the price of living to which you are accustomed to is absurd. > I'm extremely fortunate to be working at a large tech company and I have good money, but even with my income having a kid would be financially ruinous for us. Would it though? Couples having been raising children with much less fo…

> If one spouse stays home to watch them, that covers as many kids as you have.

That's debatable ;)

I have two kids, and taking care of both during the day is vastly harder - both mentally and physically - than working two jobs. As they say, it takes a village to raise a child, and I don't think many people have that village anymore. As a result, a lot of kids are being raised by TV or the internet, and if you don't want that, you'll find yourself occupied with them almost 100% of the time.

Another issue is that the spouse who stays home can effectively kiss their career goodbye if they spend seven or eight years out of the workforce. Given current divorce rates, that's not a trivial risk.

I wish I had grandparents living nearby, but that's not the case either.

I'm not saying it's impossible - I have two children myself and would probably have had more if I'd started earlier - but it's not easy. And, judging from my admittedly small sample size, it seems to be getting harder.

Re: India's surprise baby bust

#806

Post by throwaway2037 » Sat, Jun 06, 2026, 11:14 AM UTC

accurrent wrote: post #660

kopirgan wrote: post #586

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lol "unique identity" just for 2 states is left political propaganda. Don't fall for it. Every state (for that matter, most districts) in India is unique and none are unique because there's so much in common. Depending on how you look at it. Coming to main topic, much of West doesn't have fiscal runway. But your point about getting old before getting rich is valid. But it is not all bad news. IMHO one of main challen…

> Lol "unique identity" just for 2 states is left political propaganda. Don't fall for it. Every state (for that matter, most districts) in India is unique and none are unique because there's so much in common. Depending on how you look at it. Err...My point being that it's not like Biharis who move to West Bengal and Tamil Nadu are welcomed with open arms. West Bengal itself is a masterclass in what happens when you…

China (I assume you mean mainland) and "gaining consensus" (before large infra projects) in the same sentence? You lost me here.

Re: India's surprise baby bust

#807

Post by chrismorgan » Sat, Jun 06, 2026, 11:15 AM UTC

kuhsaft wrote: post #46

wolfi1 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

when there is a power outage it is most likely that the cell towers are down, too

Cell phone towers and communication systems have backup power for emergency communication during power outages. If you have backup power for your router and ONT/Modem, you should also still have internet service during a power outage. The ISP-owned ONT for a place I lived had a little lead-acid battery attached to it, and during power outages I still had internet service.

ACT terminates the fibre outside (possibly terminating a few services at once), and only spec their backup battery for 1–1½ hour (I have observed about 1½ hours on what should be a fresh battery).

Other ISPs I’ve used in Hyderabad (Hireach, Airtel) terminate the fibre inside, so you can put whatever backup you like—I have a small ₹1,000 thing which kept the Hireach one going for around 4½ hours, and the Airtel one for 1¾ hours. (Still haven’t got a proper inverter, not so convenient when renting.) The connection always worked until my battery ran out.

Re: India's surprise baby bust

#808

Post by sudosteph » Sat, Jun 06, 2026, 11:21 AM UTC

bombcar wrote: post #657

Rury wrote: post #541

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, I don't think this is a single faceted issue. I've yet to see anyone here mention animals yet... but numerous animals in captivity have also been shown to have far lower breeding/fertility rates. Factors like restricted space, lack of mate choice, and disrupted natural instincts can all influence animal behavior, and I see no reason why the same can't apply to us? I know for me personally, it's not economic reas…

I think the real interesting question isn't "why don't people have children" but more "why do those who have one or two kids not have more?" It seems everyone around came from a family of 6+ or knew those who did, yet everyone has 1 or 2 kids, three if the first two were both the same sex.

I didn't choose to have kids, but I have a friend who prioritized doing so, and she talked about hoping to have a larger family. She got married and had her first child not long after graduating from college. So biologically a very healthy age.

She ended up with two. Pregnancy sounds nice and well until your teeth start falling out. Some women just have a really rough time of it - so doing it while also being the primary caregiver for 1 or more other young child... yeah, even if you're financially stable and supported from your spouse's job, that is really a hard thing to manage.

In her case, it seems extra hard because neither her parents nor her husband's have helped with caring for the kids.

Meanwhile, my step-sister (who is less financially well-off than my friend) has 3, but they are constantly hanging out at my parents place or with extended family. Having nearby family that wants to help makes such a huge difference.

Re: India's surprise baby bust

#809

Post by tw04 » Sat, Jun 06, 2026, 11:23 AM UTC

scoofy wrote: post #388

m_fayer wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have a different pet explanation from the other replies here, and I honestly don't get why it's not talked about more. Basically, our economic reality and expectations have come into conflict with biology and human lifespan. If you want a secured dignified life and basic prerequisites to starting a family, every year that takes a little longer. And these days, almost everyone wants that dignified middle class life…

This is really the message of Abundance . If you want people to have kids, you need to make sure they are economically secure by the time they are of childbearing age... which means before they are 30. To do that, you cannot have supply constrained zero-sum shortage anywhere in society. It means that the cost of an apartment needs to be at-or-below the cost to build that apartment so people can just save up and buy o…

> and we are going to learn just how impossible it is as western society slowly collapses under the weight of its own social programs.

Social programs aren’t what’s causing western society to collapse. Wealth consolidation on the other hand…

Re: India's surprise baby bust

#810

Post by chrismorgan » Sat, Jun 06, 2026, 11:26 AM UTC

One interesting factor about India is the minimum age of marriage. For males, it’s 21. For females, it’s 18. There have been attempts since at least 2021 to increase the age for females to 21, and I’ve talked with some that thought it was 21.

Marriages below the legal ages definitely do sometimes occur.

Personally, I think setting it to 21 for males is unwise, and setting it to 21 for females would be sheer madness. There are definitely some men and women that are quite ready for marriage before 21, and not many will marry at that age even if legal. It feels to me (a white Australian who moved to India a couple of years ago to marry an Indian) like they’re reacting too strongly to some of the problems that have historically existed with child marriages. But I definitely don’t grasp the full complexity of the situation.