Earlier quoted context omitted.
My personal photography blogging business has a market cap of a trillion dollars too. I have 1 trillion shares, and I sold 1 to a mate for a dollar. Total company revenue is like 50 bucks a month and profits are nil. Can I be in the S&P 500 too?
Anthropic has raised $130B. It's a bit more than selling a share to your mate for $1.
S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic
181–190 of 524 posts
Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic
#182Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes. Plenty is correct. Fidelity let's you buy SpaceX at IPO with only $2K in the bank. And there are other reasons to be cautious. Many passive funds don't license the SP500 and instead mirror it with their own synthetic index. They are not bound to respect this decision.
I think caution is most warranted, but I also think it's likely that SpaceX will become a real-life Weyland-Yutani Corporation (i.e. "The Company") of Alien and own space. But I'll be long dead before that plays out.
Given how that's played out in the movies, I'd be happy about that.
Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic
#183"SpaceX, Other Mega IPOs Denied Fast Index Entry by S&P" (bloomberg.com) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48405718
Ars used to do deep insightful articles a couple of days after the news but today it's just regurgitated blogspam that is 2 days old news. And way more political. It's sad.
Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic
#184Yep!! Respect to them. I was planning to move to an equal weight index but this gives me a little more time to evaluate options.
I’ve moved my S&P 500 investments to the Equal Weight index to reduce my exposure to AI. Quite aside from SpaceX, I think the large-cap tech companies are making some uncomfortably large bets on AI and any major upset could cause a domino effect. But as so many ETFs have a significant stake in large-cap US tech stocks (the top 10 holdings of the iShares MSCI World ETF is entirely comprised US Big Tech, making up 20%…
Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic
#185A bit tangent, as I never had a single thought about investing any of the few precious attention moment into financial theaters. if I get it this is an index to invest in common in distributed wallets chosen and managed by an organization named S&P? I'ld be interested in something similar, but aiming at growing cooperatives, non profits, externally checked for alignment organisations striving to benefit humanity as a…
There are a lot of investment funds like this, usually called something like "ESG" (environmental, social, and governance) funds.
Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic
#186Earlier quoted context omitted.
AI can still have a massive impact while these three companies go nowhere. Same as the dotcom and same as the railroads.
> AI can still have a massive impact while these three companies go nowhere These three companies can do great while their valuations go nowhere.
How? They're building out on debt. The investors need to offload at a profit otherwise the company can't sell more shares to acquire the cash needed (share price too low).
Sure, it's possible that a recent IPO does poorly but the company soldiers on regardless, but it's not likely.
Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic
#187Yep!! Respect to them. I was planning to move to an equal weight index but this gives me a little more time to evaluate options.
I’ve moved my S&P 500 investments to the Equal Weight index to reduce my exposure to AI. Quite aside from SpaceX, I think the large-cap tech companies are making some uncomfortably large bets on AI and any major upset could cause a domino effect. But as so many ETFs have a significant stake in large-cap US tech stocks (the top 10 holdings of the iShares MSCI World ETF is entirely comprised US Big Tech, making up 20%…
The rebalancing required to maintain equal weights means constantly selling your winners and buying more of your losers. That creates volatility drag. Stock returns are highly skewed: only about 4% of stocks outperform the market, and are responsible for most of its gains. By keeping your allocation to those stocks small through constant rebalancing, you are missing out on a large part of their gains. The vast majority of stocks underperform.
Maintaining the equal weighting also requires constant trading, which generally means higher fees. A market weighted fund, in contrast, naturally maintains its desired balance in response to price movements, without any trading.
Also, the equal weighting ignores the amount of outstanding float for each company. If the fact that NASDAQ has not (historically) been float-adjusted (a common anti-SpaceX talking point) gave you concern, this is even worse, due to the multiple orders of magnitude difference between the largest and smallest companies in the S&P. If enough money enters the equal-weight index, this can spark large amounts of buying in (relatively) small companies that is divorced from their economic performance.
The equal-weight index has outperformed the market-weighted index in some periods (not in recent memory), but with higher volatility (so worse risk-adjusted returns). That outperformance can mostly be explained by factor tilts implicit in the equal weighting (e.g., a higher allocation to mid-cap value stocks).
You would probably be better off with a mix of market-weighted funds explicitly designed to give you the factor tilts and risk exposure you want.
Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic
#188I don't care about profitability, sustainability, ESG scores or anything like that. If the market is pricing unprofitable company at hundred of billions maybe there is a good reason for it. I do care about market having time to evaluate the company so index funds buy at fair prices. For this you need time and enough float and volume. Time being the main factor.
Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic
#189Earlier quoted context omitted.
> AI can still have a massive impact while these three companies go nowhere These three companies can do great while their valuations go nowhere.
Which is unlikely considering their obligations. I'm a bit more optimistic about SpaceX (and anthropic to a lower degree), but if free models keep improving at the same rate as frontier models, their won't be any profit from AI.
Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic
#190Earlier quoted context omitted.
> AI can still have a massive impact while these three companies go nowhere These three companies can do great while their valuations go nowhere.
> These three companies can do great while their valuations go nowhere. How? They're building out on debt. The investors need to offload at a profit otherwise the company can't sell more shares to acquire the cash needed (share price too low). Sure, it's possible that a recent IPO does poorly but the company soldiers on regardless, but it's not likely.
SpaceX sort of is. OpenAI almost certainly is. Anthropic doesn't appear to be.