Ask HN: Why is the HN crowd so anti-AI?

For code in general, the various meanings of "I am {insert number here} times as productive" on Figure 9 page 36: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w35275/w352...

Same document, Figure 12 page 41 shows a significant spike in iOS apps but also the users per app is way down (which you should expect, given this makes it possible for low-user-count apps to be sensible business propositions).

How many people care to spend a year making a replacement for something that took a decade? Photoshop, despite the complaints about price and subscription model, just isn't expensive enough to justify one engineer-year to replace. Unreal and Unity are free for a lot of people using them, and likewise are not worth the cost of replacing for those who do end up paying (because the teams using them know how to use them and don't want to be retrained).

For this reason, you should be looking at things which would have taken a year of human time but now take a month, or faster, so less Photoshop 27.7 (today) and more back when it was still called ImagePro (1988).

For games, I've seen games like the following take a month or more to get good enough to be interesting, and yet the following took me two prompts, the second of which was the single word "continue" (and only needed that because this was on the free tier and I used too many tokens); I didn't bother to look at the code, I don't care about the code, making the app itself was as easy as simply finding an app like this on the Apple App Store even though such an app was in one of the top-10 lists: https://github.com/BenWheatley/Piano-Trainer

Is this game "as good as" the one on the App Store? Who cares. Any random person who wants their own app can now get their own custom version doing the specific things they care about, which doesn't need to simultaneously support all the use cases of all the other people who would buy the app on the App Store.

From what I read on Hacker News comments, the same is happening with video editing, where it's not "Make an iMovie clone" (why would you, iMovie is free), but rather every time you need one specific thing, you ask your LLM of choice for a solution, and it gives you a shell script which calls ffmpeg with the right arguments.

Typically there's a lot of acknowledgement that problems are coming rapidly, if only in the form of amateurs flooding the domain, but there's also an assumption that their domain knowledge is going to matter, in terms of staying viable in the market. This is far from a safe assumption.

Even if you assume you are ONLY needing to sell products or services to humans, also assuming that humans will continue to thrive and spend money, you're assuming people will be able to identify superior products you assume you can produce and market, and that they won't be misled by false advertising, at scale, generated by other AI to optimize its effectiveness.

If you instead assume the domain experts are going to need to sell to AIs (either as owners of wealth and power, or as the agents of the humans we're assuming will still thrive and spend money) you're making a hell of a big assumption that the agents will be trustworthy market participants with perfect information able to evaluate stuff in the best traditions of market capitalism. Humans don't manage that, even when they're a lot smarter. If this assumption fails, all the money goes to whatever exploits the AI agents most effectively, also at scale. At that stage there is no use being a domain expert in anything but hacking people's AI agents to trick or puppet the agents to do your bidding. Anything else is wasted effort.

Sometimes I also see pushback along the lines of programmers criticizing the quality of the AI coding itself. This is gonna be domain-dependent and it's fair to counter it through developing less fragile languages, but we don't know that'll work as an answer. There's a lot of handwaving.

I'm pretty sure people's experience of AI, as a rule, is the bad, damaging forms, where it's burning stupid amounts of energy to make everything worse while openly promising to take away everyone's ability to work and replacing it with the need to pay the AI owners a sort of extra tax just to be able to exist and think. The HN crowd is WILDLY pro-AI compared to the general population.

It's not going to look any better in future for the general population. What I've described leads to 'AI' increasingly producing shockingly bad outcomes for people in general, through simple market dynamics. It's going to be way more profitable to produce the bad outcomes.

I think this would be a very useful feature to add to HN itself. I nearly emailed dang a few weeks ago to suggest it myself rather than roll my own browser extension to do it, though maybe it's my own responsibility to roll my own software too.

The Gearspace forums (vBulletin based?) have an "Ignore User" feature that helps make that forum vastly more tolerable.

But, even if I had generational wealth behind me to be able to leverage the AI to my advantage, I still see a lot of cons in the way cheap content generation worsens the world around me: facilitating fraud, political shilling, disrupting online conversations (now everyone just sends bot summaries to each other). In a way, I feel a similar change that from the "pre-facebook" Internet to the "pre-chatgpt" Internet that happened in the early 10s.