India's surprise baby bust • Hacker News Board

Re: India's surprise baby bust

#531

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Jun 06, 2026, 12:06 AM UTC

scoofy wrote: post #388

m_fayer wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have a different pet explanation from the other replies here, and I honestly don't get why it's not talked about more. Basically, our economic reality and expectations have come into conflict with biology and human lifespan. If you want a secured dignified life and basic prerequisites to starting a family, every year that takes a little longer. And these days, almost everyone wants that dignified middle class life…

This is really the message of Abundance . If you want people to have kids, you need to make sure they are economically secure by the time they are of childbearing age... which means before they are 30. To do that, you cannot have supply constrained zero-sum shortage anywhere in society. It means that the cost of an apartment needs to be at-or-below the cost to build that apartment so people can just save up and buy o…

[deleted]

Re: India's surprise baby bust

#532

Post by mullingitover » Sat, Jun 06, 2026, 12:07 AM UTC

trumpdong wrote: post #472

onetimeusename wrote: post #390

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was surprised to find that just as recently as 1970 the median age of first marriage for men was ~23 and ~21 for women.[1] The average age at first child birth for women in 1970 was ~22.[2] There was a change that took place in the late 70s it looks like, probably acquiring education, that started to pretty dramatically raise the age of first marriage and first childbirth. So for me this was realizing that there wa…

> in the late 70s As usual... https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/

Weird site, seems to completely ignore the oil shock and following grave errors with loose monetary policy. Goldbugs gonna goldbug I suppose.

Anyway I'm sure the current oil shock and (assuming the clowns get their way) loose monetary policy will be different this time!

Re: India's surprise baby bust

#533

Post by scoofy » Sat, Jun 06, 2026, 12:07 AM UTC

mullingitover wrote: post #521

scoofy wrote: post #457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, I agree with what you're saying, but it misses that abundance means abundance . Consumer staples should cost near the price of production, and where margins are out of control, the government should step in and end the rent-seeking... that is what abundance is. If we live in a society where there is no price appreciation in owning an apartment to rent because another apartment can be build next door, then we…

> we have the rich investing in existing housing because we have effectively stopped production In my quite affluent city, the most affluent neighborhood has yard signs up every fifty feet expressing that they are furious that the city might develop city-owned parking lots (which are nowhere near their neighborhood ) to be high density housing. One-bedroom apartments in the city center are going for over $3,000 per m…

“A society grows great when old men build five-over-ones whose shade will immediately cover their favorite park bench for 4 days per year.”

Re: India's surprise baby bust

#534

Post by Unit327 » Sat, Jun 06, 2026, 12:09 AM UTC

everdrive wrote: post #312

FuriouslyAdrift wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We only have one modern example of demographic crash to study... Japan. Total economic stagnation, spiraling population numbers, loss of anything anchored to manual labor, and an aging population. So far, it looks to be a way for slow extinction of a culture.

Ah yes, the hellscape that is Japan. The Japanese are currently fleeing to South Sudan and Darfur in hopes of a better life.

The impacts haven't really been seen yet because Japan is still on the flat apex of the population curve, but the rollercoaster is about to start diving.

https://www.ipss.go.jp/pp-zenkoku/e/zenkoku_e2023/pp_zenkoku...

Re: India's surprise baby bust

#535

Post by mystreamlincar » Sat, Jun 06, 2026, 12:11 AM UTC

i_idiot wrote: post #8

What's the strong case against population dwindling other than supporting aging population? Given the AI armageddon, it just makes sense to reduce the population. If there's less population, we need less production and less workers. Of course, countries have to deal with oldest population for a brief period of time.

You need consumers to buy whatever an economy builds, regardless of AI involvement. As people retire they consume less.

Re: India's surprise baby bust

#536

Post by mystreamlincar » Sat, Jun 06, 2026, 12:13 AM UTC

guyzero wrote: post #323

throwyawayyyy wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, if Japan is the world's future, isn't that kind of... good? It's not the first place I think of when I think of a failing country.

Japan is not without problems related to a shrinking population i.e. https://eastasiaforum.org/2026/05/21/japans-immigration-poli... but it's a problem easily solved by just letting in more immigrants.

Except the fertility rate is declining worldwide

Re: India's surprise baby bust

#537

Post by mystreamlincar » Sat, Jun 06, 2026, 12:14 AM UTC

calepayson wrote: post #42

i_idiot wrote: post #8

What's the strong case against population dwindling other than supporting aging population? Given the AI armageddon, it just makes sense to reduce the population. If there's less population, we need less production and less workers. Of course, countries have to deal with oldest population for a brief period of time.

Shot in the dark but my sense is that a lot of our economics presumes growth and, if we don’t get it, a lot of terrible stuff happens. I feel pretty confident that ai will eventually be a large driver of growth but I do worry about whether it'll come soon enough.

Growth has 2 parts, producers and consumers. AI might be able to take solve production due to lack of workers, but it cannot solve lack of consumers

Re: India's surprise baby bust

#538

Post by yongjik » Sat, Jun 06, 2026, 12:18 AM UTC

mullingitover wrote: post #521

scoofy wrote: post #457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, I agree with what you're saying, but it misses that abundance means abundance . Consumer staples should cost near the price of production, and where margins are out of control, the government should step in and end the rent-seeking... that is what abundance is. If we live in a society where there is no price appreciation in owning an apartment to rent because another apartment can be build next door, then we…

> we have the rich investing in existing housing because we have effectively stopped production In my quite affluent city, the most affluent neighborhood has yard signs up every fifty feet expressing that they are furious that the city might develop city-owned parking lots (which are nowhere near their neighborhood ) to be high density housing. One-bedroom apartments in the city center are going for over $3,000 per m…

I think there should be a relatively simple solution. Tax the homeowners proportional to their homes' market value. Either you get enough tax revenue to build more houses, or the tax burden is too high for those NIMBY to remain at their beautiful suburban homes, and their houses will be back on the market.

But no, when we propose that, all those affluent bourgeois feeding on the young are suddenly poor grandmas just wanting to live the rest of their lives in peace.

Make up your mind, people. Are we going to fix the problem, or are we going to blame Jeff Bezos because some suburban schmucks oppose building apartments. Frankly I don't think Jeff Bezos even cares about apartments. (He has enough money to buy a city block, why would he care.) But it sure feels more righteous to hate Jeff Bezos than argue about real estate tax.

Re: India's surprise baby bust

#539

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Jun 06, 2026, 12:19 AM UTC

m_fayer wrote: post #202

MontyCarloHall wrote: post #69

This has happened to every single society [*] as it industrializes [0], and offering extensive support and incentives to parents (e.g. as has been tried in Scandinavian countries) does very little to reverse this trend [1, 2]. My hypothesis is that as societies industrialize, they afford their population more and more activities that are simply more fun and rewarding than having children. So many people I know put of…

I have a different pet explanation from the other replies here, and I honestly don't get why it's not talked about more. Basically, our economic reality and expectations have come into conflict with biology and human lifespan. If you want a secured dignified life and basic prerequisites to starting a family, every year that takes a little longer. And these days, almost everyone wants that dignified middle class life…

[deleted]

Re: India's surprise baby bust

#540

Post by theshackleford » Sat, Jun 06, 2026, 12:23 AM UTC

em-bee wrote: post #520

theshackleford wrote: post #500

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You don't need to have life all figured out before you have kids My parents didn’t have their life figured out and I paid the price with extreme mental and physical abuse as their life entered a never ending downward spiral. This had impacts on me, which extended to impacts on others. I’m ok now, after years of intensive counselling reversed the violent tendencies that were beaten into me with their fists over two…

but this comes from parents being expected to have their life figured out and not giving them any help. if we accept as normal that young parents will not have their life figured out then we will also make sure that we don't leave them alone but actually support them. i think this is especially extreme in the US where some parents tell their kids that at their 18th birthday they are on their own. that's an insane att…

I think you are correct, but not in a manner likely to happen.

My parents had all the support they needed from their parents, but it wasn’t enough, their life was interrupted before they found their footing and they just never developed that footing once children were added to the mix.

To your point though, maybe if there was more support of parents from society from a larger perspective, maybe it would have been different.

If my upbringing hadn’t been getting bashed into an inch of my life because apparently being unable to afford rent was my fault, I suspect I would have been far more amenable to children.