SpaceX, Other Mega IPOs Denied Fast Index Entry by S&P • Hacker News Board

Re: SpaceX, Other Mega IPOs Denied Fast Index Entry by S&P

#481

Post by infecto » Fri, Jun 05, 2026, 5:24 PM UTC

epolanski wrote: post #470

infecto wrote: post #406

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No you’re just assuming what I am asking. You have proven my point so thank you. No examples and lots of buts and exceptions. We are probably talking around each other to some degree but that’s ok!

Not sure what I have proven. I gave you numbers and names of indexes that have historically beaten the S&P 500 index in the value category. All of those have one or more ETFs that replicate that index. There's an extensive amount of scientific literature talking about the outperformance of value and small caps to the broader market, starting from Nobel price winning Eugene Fama.

No you provided examples with but statements and a few of the examples are private close ended funds.

Re: SpaceX, Other Mega IPOs Denied Fast Index Entry by S&P

#482

Post by buggy6257 » Fri, Jun 05, 2026, 5:26 PM UTC

l23k4 wrote: post #429

tcp_handshaker wrote: post #383

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At this moment, there is so so much, publicly available information [1] on the fact the SpaceX IPO is the biggest scandal in the long history of Wallstreet insiders fleecing the "Johns". A scandal orchestrated and cheered on by the NASDAQ, as well as Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan the underwriters, that if you spend any money on it, you deserve to be parted with your money. And if you have a 401k...you are forced to buy…

[flagged]

Two of those YouTube links are to Patrick Boyle who is a very respectable and knowledgeable ex hedge fund manager who dives DEEP into the topic while remaining entertaining. It’s a hilariously outdated take to say that YouTube content guarantees a lack of value or authority.

Re: SpaceX, Other Mega IPOs Denied Fast Index Entry by S&P

#483

Post by undersuit » Fri, Jun 05, 2026, 5:28 PM UTC

Analemma_ wrote: post #431

czhu12 wrote: post #404

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems the general consensus on HN is that they are overvalued and for sure will collapse in value down the road, I could imagine some frustration down the road if these companies actually become, say, 4T by the time they get added to indices.

What examples have there been in the past of a company which did all its growth in the 1-year period following the IPO, then stopped right when they were added to the index?

GoPro?

Re: SpaceX, Other Mega IPOs Denied Fast Index Entry by S&P

#484

Post by sokoloff » Fri, Jun 05, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC

vannevar wrote: post #389

boringg wrote: post #373

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Im pretty sure Enron was in there in the past as well - 7th largest by revenue... that would make Carvana seem like nothing. To answer your question honestly though -- the inclusion is mechanical based on criteria not policing based on opinion. Carvana being a history of shady practices is your opinion... (I would agree with you)

My opinion, yes. But if someone said they had invented anit-gravity, then showed you a bowling ball "floating" but with a sheet covering any potential support, you'd be pretty suspicious. And if they refused to remove the sheet, and had previously been convicted of fraud, you'd probably be extremely suspicious. But it would still only be your opinion until the sheet was removed.

But what if your dad had a closely-related sheet company that you regularly transacted with but isn’t public because he was barred for life from giving public demonstrations but owned tons of shares in your demonstration and sold millions of dollars worth on a daily basis?

Surely then it would ease your suspicions…

Re: SpaceX, Other Mega IPOs Denied Fast Index Entry by S&P

#485

Post by hnav » Fri, Jun 05, 2026, 5:49 PM UTC

ChrisMarshallNY wrote: post #306

hnav wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

shady debt offloading onto its sibling financing entity, which is run by Carvana CEO's father, a man convicted of fraud

> financing entity, which is run by … a man convicted of fraud I didn’t think that was allowed.

Commander in chief got convicted in NY before being re-elected, I think everything's allowed these days.

Re: SpaceX, Other Mega IPOs Denied Fast Index Entry by S&P

#486

Post by queuebert » Fri, Jun 05, 2026, 6:06 PM UTC

ncallaway wrote: post #65

queuebert wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Historically a $1T market cap with a PE of 20.0 would be achievable with a $50B/yr profit. That seems easily achievable eventually for SpaceX, as it has actual hardware and services and IP.

> Historically a $1T market cap with a PE of 20.0 would be achievable with a $50B/yr profit. That seems easily achievable eventually for SpaceX, as it has actual hardware and services and IP. It seems crazy to me to make a comparison between a company being valued on it's current profit and then to say it's reasonable for another company to have the same market cap because it could eventually have the same profit.

I didn't say that at all. I said it was achievable for SpaceX eventually. It's not a $1T company yet. Reading comprehension, people.

Re: SpaceX, Other Mega IPOs Denied Fast Index Entry by S&P

#487

Post by red-iron-pine » Fri, Jun 05, 2026, 6:21 PM UTC

Henchman21 wrote: post #459

beernet wrote: post #442

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Companies are innovating things that significantly enhance human capabilities and people will still find a reason to drag them down. I am not a fan of either these companies. At the same time, I strongly disagree with these doomer scenarios as they are dangerous for progress of humanity.

Concentrating the cognitive power of AI in the hands of just a few sociopathic Capitalists is NOT, I repeat NOT PROGRESS.

yea but you realize you're posting on HN, right?

Re: SpaceX, Other Mega IPOs Denied Fast Index Entry by S&P

#488

Post by red-iron-pine » Fri, Jun 05, 2026, 6:23 PM UTC

buggy6257 wrote: post #482

l23k4 wrote: post #429

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Two of those YouTube links are to Patrick Boyle who is a very respectable and knowledgeable ex hedge fund manager who dives DEEP into the topic while remaining entertaining. It’s a hilariously outdated take to say that YouTube content guarantees a lack of value or authority.

Patrick B is also a finance professor and most of his presentations (generally) maintain a level of academic rigour.

he got into the youtube during covid because he was posting YT vids for his students, and they just kept sharing them with everyone; he just ran with it

also: he talks deliberately slowly for subtitle and non-english speaker purposes; use the settings to speed him to x1.25 or x1.5 speed

Re: SpaceX, Other Mega IPOs Denied Fast Index Entry by S&P

#489

Post by Henchman21 » Fri, Jun 05, 2026, 6:39 PM UTC

red-iron-pine wrote: post #487

Henchman21 wrote: post #459

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Concentrating the cognitive power of AI in the hands of just a few sociopathic Capitalists is NOT, I repeat NOT PROGRESS.

yea but you realize you're posting on HN, right?

Of course? I’m not expecting upvotes or whatever — IDGAF about that. I care about stating the truth in places where truth is in short supply.

Re: SpaceX, Other Mega IPOs Denied Fast Index Entry by S&P

#490

Post by ben_w » Fri, Jun 05, 2026, 6:40 PM UTC

root-parent wrote: post #460

misiti3780 wrote: post #370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if i had to short 1 of the 3, it would be OpenAI

The company with the best model by far?

Well, joint best.

At the target market caps people are talking about, I wouldn't blame anyone who shorts all three: even if you're optimistic about the value of the tech, monetising is hard, and competition reduces profits.