Goodhart's law, again. I feel like 1/10 comment I make on HN are about this. So merged PR were until LLMs a good proxy for the ability to code and contribute to a software project. Consequently they were used to estimate if a candidate was potentially good for a position. Merged PR on popular project were thus precious credentials one could "trade" for potential work. Since then the desire to provide PR changed from…
what, in your opinion, are the new proxies?
What I can imagine though is that
- the value of merged PRs might drop (as it's not a good metric anymore)
- while the cost of submitting them goes up (as price per token is radically changing, e.g. Github announcement just this week)
so maybe it's also only temporary.
Also if all this is correct, including the value of PR on popular repository being more important, then the long tail of projects might not have to worry about this.