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SpaceX, Other Mega IPOs Denied Fast Index Entry by S&P

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Re: SpaceX, Other Mega IPOs Denied Fast Index Entry by S&P

#141
post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On a fundamental level, the S&P 500 index is meant to be a benchmark of the market. Journalists, policymakers, investment managers, politicians, regular investors, everyone I know all use the S&P 500 as the benchmark of the US stock market. If a significant percentage of the market is excluded from the index because they don't meet index inclusion criteria, then then index stops being a useful benchmark.

It’s a benchmark of the market under certain rules, like having multiple quarters of earnings for the market to value them at. These companies want special exceptions. If you are an exception why should you be included in a benchmark? At best they should have an asterisk against their name like Sammy Sosa or Mark McGuire if they are not following the same rules.

Your baseball cheating analogy makes no sense here. Rules against corked bats / steroids exist so people don't cheat at a sport and all players can compete equally. S&P rules are supposed to make the index reflect the market. Totally different.

The profitability requirement is something made up by the S&P committee. If that rule ends up excluding trillions in market cap, the rule has defeated its own purpose. The 12 months of profitability requirement punishes high-growth companies that invest their FCF into growing the business vs taking profits.

It excludes companies like Amazon, which when ran by Bezos, was famously unprofitable and invested all free cash flow into growing the business and never turned a significant profit until >20 years after its founding.

Re: SpaceX, Other Mega IPOs Denied Fast Index Entry by S&P

#142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> sensible thing to do is to create a new index with the new rules It depends. Indices aren’t funds. They aren’t meant to balance investor interests. They’re meant to communicate some metric about the market. The S&P tells you how big companies are doing in an index optimized to balance representation against trading cost. So in 2005, float was taken into account for weighting (versus just market cap). This made sens…

> They’re meant to communicate some metric about the market. Is that why people spend time, money and effort creating and maintaining them? They're just broadcasters? That seems dubious.

I mean, they get paid for it, sometimes quite a lot, for this "broadcasting". $100mm of AUM gets you like $200k profit/yr. (Like $500k minus fees)

Re: SpaceX, Other Mega IPOs Denied Fast Index Entry by S&P

#143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, I'm saying they are hyping up some random podcast while saying sweet nothings. I really don't like empty hype. I want some actual content to posts that actually says something, not just links breathlessly encouraging me to go spend an hour listening.

And where did the ad hominem part arise?

It's all empty words.

> a very thorough and nuanced discussion

> bunch of smart investment / finance guys

> No click-bait-sky-is-falling content.

The middle one is the ad-hominem puffery. The rest isn't quite exactly 100% 'of the person's, but still doesn't give me any actual leads into what the content is: its just empty puffery.

Re: SpaceX, Other Mega IPOs Denied Fast Index Entry by S&P

#144
post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s a benchmark of the market under certain rules, like having multiple quarters of earnings for the market to value them at. These companies want special exceptions. If you are an exception why should you be included in a benchmark? At best they should have an asterisk against their name like Sammy Sosa or Mark McGuire if they are not following the same rules.

Your baseball cheating analogy makes no sense here. Rules against corked bats / steroids exist so people don't cheat at a sport and all players can compete equally. S&P rules are supposed to make the index reflect the market. Totally different. The profitability requirement is something made up by the S&P committee. If that rule ends up excluding trillions in market cap, the rule has defeated its own purpose. The 12…

> Rules against corked bats / steroids exist so people don't cheat at a sport and all players can compete equally.

> The profitability requirement is something made up by the S&P committee.

Those are both equally made up. In this case the rules are being changed for new entrants into the market such as SpaceX for the Nasdaq and other benchmarks that are allowing it for that none of the previous companies in said index were allowed to get in under.

And since it’s 15 days and I know most companies have lockout terms on the order of months for various levels of stock, I’m hesitant to believe this won’t modify the benchmarks beyond what has happened with previous inclusions.

`JumpCrisscross’s reply to one of my other comments on this thread in regards to the S&P being a committee based decision actually has had me pause to think, but your argument that the rules are arbitrary so it can’t be cheating like my baseball analogy fails to land.

Re: SpaceX, Other Mega IPOs Denied Fast Index Entry by S&P

#145
post #112

Good. Indexes are supposed to be slow-moving, precisely due to their entry requirement of sustained profitability that skews towards mature companies. All that an inclusion of these new companies would accomplish is a bailout of their stockholders by pension funds and ETFs where millions of regular people shoulder all the downside risk. SpaceX and OAI stock will be available through Robinhood, Questrade and all the o…

On a fundamental level, the S&P 500 index is meant to be a benchmark of the market. Journalists, policymakers, investment managers, politicians, regular investors, everyone I know all use the S&P 500 as the benchmark of the US stock market. If a significant percentage of the market is excluded from the index because they don't meet index inclusion criteria, then then index stops being a useful benchmark.

S&P500 is not a total market index. It tracks a specific kind of large firm, with certain filters.

Fast tracking means that the market likely wont have enough time to find the settled price (especially with the knowledge that passive funds are about to buy), and including a mispriced thing does not necessarily make the benchmark more accurate.

Re: SpaceX, Other Mega IPOs Denied Fast Index Entry by S&P

#146
post #119

What is prompting SpaceX to IPO all of the sudden? I'm personally convinced that this is Musk trying to get out of debt from his Twitter purchase.

That is a part of it.

Think of it like security backed bonds, if you bundle a lot of dud businesses into a single business that is doing ok then as an aggregate it looks fine. So bundling Twitter and xAi into SpaceX covers up that. This is why I suspect they will eventually merge Tesla into SpaceX as it is on the decline now.

The problem is that with the current cash on hand and large loans coming due, they only have a 6 month runway. Thus the IPO to get other peoples money to hopefully fund themselves until solvent.

All IPO's are essentially that, people invest in your business, the business uses their money to achieve more, and if it all works out then future profits can eventually be paid back to investors.

Re: SpaceX, Other Mega IPOs Denied Fast Index Entry by S&P

#147
post #112

Good. Indexes are supposed to be slow-moving, precisely due to their entry requirement of sustained profitability that skews towards mature companies. All that an inclusion of these new companies would accomplish is a bailout of their stockholders by pension funds and ETFs where millions of regular people shoulder all the downside risk. SpaceX and OAI stock will be available through Robinhood, Questrade and all the o…

>All that an inclusion of these new companies would accomplish is a bailout of their stockholders by pension funds and ETFs where millions of regular people shoulder all the downside risk.

The purpose of an index is to provide a benchmark of the market, not to build funds that follow the index.

Re: SpaceX, Other Mega IPOs Denied Fast Index Entry by S&P

#148
post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s a benchmark of the market under certain rules, like having multiple quarters of earnings for the market to value them at. These companies want special exceptions. If you are an exception why should you be included in a benchmark? At best they should have an asterisk against their name like Sammy Sosa or Mark McGuire if they are not following the same rules.

Your baseball cheating analogy makes no sense here. Rules against corked bats / steroids exist so people don't cheat at a sport and all players can compete equally. S&P rules are supposed to make the index reflect the market. Totally different. The profitability requirement is something made up by the S&P committee. If that rule ends up excluding trillions in market cap, the rule has defeated its own purpose. The 12…

What is it a benchmark for? All investable public stocks or the economy writ large?

Re: SpaceX, Other Mega IPOs Denied Fast Index Entry by S&P

#149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, I'm saying they are hyping up some random podcast while saying sweet nothings. I really don't like empty hype. I want some actual content to posts that actually says something, not just links breathlessly encouraging me to go spend an hour listening.

And where did the ad hominem part arise?

https://human.libretexts.org/Under_Construction/Clean_Up_(Pr...

Search for "positive ad hominem".

Re: SpaceX, Other Mega IPOs Denied Fast Index Entry by S&P

#150
post #119

What is prompting SpaceX to IPO all of the sudden? I'm personally convinced that this is Musk trying to get out of debt from his Twitter purchase.

That already happened with the merger of X with XAI and then the merger of Xai and SpaceX. But the reason is because SpaceX is trying to tool up for orbital datacenters. They're building a bunch of solar cell manufacturing plants and Starship launch pads.

Or at least they are selling the idea of orbital data centers since the technology for orbital data centers does not exist yet or in the short term.
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