A Post-Quantum Future for Let's Encrypt

  c1 = E1(p, k1)
  c2 = E2(p, k2)

What you do instead is to use multiple KEMs and combine them securely (see the blog post I linked) in such a way that the confidentiality of your shared secret (i.e., the key you actually use for encryption) is preserved if any of the underlying KEMs is unbroken.

  ss1, ct1 = KEM1(pk1)
  ss2, ct2 = KEM2(pk2)
  secret = Combiner(ss1, ss2, [ct1, [ct2]])

This is very different than merely "encrypt your data twice". You only encrypt your data once. The KEY YOU ENCRYPT WITH is, instead, the result of multiple asymmetric operations.

I cannot stress enough how different these proposition are. It's like suggesting someone swim downstream in electric current. The words might make logical sense to a non-expert, but it's utterly unsafe taken literally.

People bring up SIKE/SIDH in these discussions because Daniel Bernstein has used it as innuendo in his arguments against the MLKEM standard (always left out of those discussions: Bernstein himself backed a lattice KEM in the same competition). It's aggravating because its very clear that he's succeeded in getting people to believe that SIDH somehow reflects on lattice cryptography. That's not a problem because it's persuasive (no cryptographer would take that argument seriously) but rather because he's succeeded in making people say dumb things.

> Post-quantum authentication is no longer a problem the Web PKI ecosystem should defer. Long-lived keys (root certificate authorities, code-signing keys, identity systems) are particularly valuable targets, and new technology takes years to gain broad adoption, so the work has to start early.

This is a problem that I have met so many times talking with people: they parrot the "Harvest-Now-Decrypt-Later is the only urgent problem, signatures can wait" mantra, and this piece of misinformation has spread so much that even AI repeats it (because it has been trained on open data, where the overwhelming sentiment has been following this trend), thereby reinforcing the problem. Ask Claude/ChatGPT/Gemini about the problem, and they will invariably tell you that signatures are less urgent because theyr are not subjective to retroactive compromise.

There are two problems here.

The first one is included by the Letsencrypt announcement: the migration path for signatures/certificates is typically longer and more complex than encryption: long-lived certificates, firmware update keys, secure boot certificates, these are all objects that are painful to migrate.

The second one, even more serious in my opinion, is: "retroactive" in respect to what? "Retroactive" presupposes you can observe the trigger (the arrival of a cryptanalytically-relevant quantum computer), but this is precisely the kind of capability an adversary keeps secret, and a quantum forgery is operationally indistinguishable from, e.g., key exfiltration, a library bug, or a classical break. You may see a forged signature, a drained wallet, a failing certificate, and have no way to attribute it to quantum cryptanalysis. The threat is dark: reactive migration against an unobservable trigger is structurally impossible.

This is not to say that Harvest-Now-Decrypt-Later is a less urgent threat, but it's not so asymmetric as people have been believing so far. Glad to see things are changing!

The thing a cryptography-relevant quantum computer does is break RSA and elliptic curve cryptography, so that the underlying key (k1 or k2) is recoverable from its corresponding public component.

Hybrid KEMs, such as mlkem768x25519 (a.k.a. X-Wing) is a simple abstraction with security proofs that does both classical (X25519 is elliptic curve) and post-quantum (ML-KEM-768 is lattice-based) cryptography and combines them securely into a single key agreement.

"Encrypt twice" is bad advice. Even if you get the same approximate security, you're giving up a lot of performance.

Encrypt once, but encrypt with a key you can be confident in the secrecy of.