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Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target

reuters.com

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Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target

#161

Post by Recurecur »

jampa wrote: post #151
guidedlight wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are competitors to Starlink arriving now. For example, the Australian government has selected Project Kepler (now called Amazon Leo) to provide broadband services to the Australian Outback. https://www.nbnco.com.au/corporate-information/media-centre/... And geopolitical shenanigans in Ukraine with Musk and Starlink means that it may not be a reliable partner.

The biggest competitor to Starlink is, ironically, traditional fiber. When COVID hit, I knew a lot of engineers who decided to move to rural areas / small farms, because they could leverage Starlink to work remotely. Last year, when I asked whether they still liked Starlink, all of them said it was amazing, but they had gotten fiber coverage in their area from a local provider, so they don't use it anymore, or just u…

Starlink isn’t for areas served by fiber it’s for areas that don’t have have good Internet access available, which are far larger than the area served by fiber.

Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target

#162

Post by TimTheTinker »

gruez wrote: post #91
TimTheTinker wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nothing wrong with finding a low-cost large cap ETF that matches your investing preferences.

So basically the whole ESG craze from a few years ago?

Sure, or there are faith based ones now - I personally invest in PTL

Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target

#163

Post by s1artibartfast »

anonymousiam wrote: post #118

I waited for the Google IPO, but did not pre-order. I looked at the price on the first day of trading and decided it was overvalued (at about $100.00). GOOG today is worth about 200x the IPO price, so I guess I was wrong...

I sold tesla when it hit 80 the first time

Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target

#164

Post by shpx »

moate wrote: post #83
pandoro wrote: post #69

The other day I was thinking: "if Musk disappears tomorrow would the valuation still be in the same ballpark?". I don't think so at all. In this context, it feels like even 150 Billions would be a big stretch considering revenue and forecasts. The coming IPOs and numbers are completely detached from reality and we are all in for a crash that will make 2008 look like a walk in the park.

"If the guy with insider access to the Kleptocracy left would this thing be as valuable" is a resounding NO when you're selling exploding space ships and a 3rd tier AI, a service that consumers continue to find complicated at best.

> The Falcon 9 has [...] 641 successful launches, 2 in-flight failures, 1 partial failure and 1 pre-flight destruction.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9

> Falcon 9 first-stage boosters have been landed and recovered 616 times out of 629 attempts, including synchronized recoveries of the side-boosters of most Falcon Heavy flights.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_first-stage_b...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_He...

Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target

#165

Post by duxup »

pandoro wrote: post #69

The other day I was thinking: "if Musk disappears tomorrow would the valuation still be in the same ballpark?". I don't think so at all. In this context, it feels like even 150 Billions would be a big stretch considering revenue and forecasts. The coming IPOs and numbers are completely detached from reality and we are all in for a crash that will make 2008 look like a walk in the park.

It seems like a suicide pact for the companies like Tesla and Musk ... they need each other and then things get worse ...

Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target

#166

Post by UncleMeat »

Recurecur wrote: post #157
pandoro wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their launch business has a dominant market position but is not run for profit and xAI is loosing money. Starlink is the only segment earning real money: $7.2 billion in adjusted EBITDA. So 150 Billions seems "realistic" when taking Musk out of the equation. Maybe 150 to 250 billions would be better as a range if you want to be really optimistic.

The stock market is not about current results, it’s about future results. SpaceX has more future upside than any company I can think of…

How? The total market for space flight is low. Satellite internet is nice but again small. Is this just all grok?

Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target

#167

Post by cogman10 »

minraws wrote: post #138
ryandvm wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wild that the guy whose decisions are directly responsible for driving profitability into the ground is somehow the reason these companies have 300+ PE valuations.

Proves the point that skills don't matter results do, if a monkey manages to make better milkshake and you fire the chef, you didn't really improve the kitchen. But that's what we do in stock and markets and well whatever we are living through, sometimes bad decisions can have good results because you were right place right time. if it happens more than once, that doesn't mean it was incredible it just means the bias…

This all assumes there was some skill involved. Instead, this along with gamestop and a few other meme stocks are showing that the stock market simply isn't as rational as finance experts have wanted to pretend.

This is a bitcoin stock market. Things are valued entirely based on what others are willing to buy for. They are not valued based on any attribute of the underlying asset. Exactly like bitcoin, it's whim and whimsy which is driving prices.

It's group gambling at this point. Everyone is betting that there won't be a run on the market.

Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target

#168

Post by glimshe »

cogman10 wrote: post #167
minraws wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Proves the point that skills don't matter results do, if a monkey manages to make better milkshake and you fire the chef, you didn't really improve the kitchen. But that's what we do in stock and markets and well whatever we are living through, sometimes bad decisions can have good results because you were right place right time. if it happens more than once, that doesn't mean it was incredible it just means the bias…

This all assumes there was some skill involved. Instead, this along with gamestop and a few other meme stocks are showing that the stock market simply isn't as rational as finance experts have wanted to pretend. This is a bitcoin stock market. Things are valued entirely based on what others are willing to buy for. They are not valued based on any attribute of the underlying asset. Exactly like bitcoin, it's whim and…

Everything is valued by what people are willing to pay for it.

Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target

#169

Post by bagels »

UncleMeat wrote: post #166
Recurecur wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The stock market is not about current results, it’s about future results. SpaceX has more future upside than any company I can think of…

How? The total market for space flight is low. Satellite internet is nice but again small. Is this just all grok?

Starlink is growing. Valuation is too high, but it is growing.

Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target

#170

Post by cogman10 »

glimshe wrote: post #168
cogman10 wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This all assumes there was some skill involved. Instead, this along with gamestop and a few other meme stocks are showing that the stock market simply isn't as rational as finance experts have wanted to pretend. This is a bitcoin stock market. Things are valued entirely based on what others are willing to buy for. They are not valued based on any attribute of the underlying asset. Exactly like bitcoin, it's whim and…

Everything is valued by what people are willing to pay for it.

The myth of the stock market was that value was tied to the performance or potential of the company whose ownership you were taking a part of.
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