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Alphabet announces $80B equity capital raise to expand AI infra and compute

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Re: Alphabet announces $80B equity capital raise to expand AI infra and compute

#211
post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LLMs still need a search API, and use it a lot. Google is well positioned to earn from this service, especially if they can prove that their search service is superior to competitors. While they lose some of their moat, they are well positioned to dominate the market, just like they did in the consumer space.

That’s not what claude code does… and that’s exactly the dilemma for Google.

so the argument here is that its too niche for google to care ? i dont belive that they made explicit decision to make a lame version of claude code that their own devs dont use.

Re: Alphabet announces $80B equity capital raise to expand AI infra and compute

#212
post #194
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They know Google has a ton of data to train LLMs on. Recently I have been asking YouTube's new AI about some videos ("when is Steam metrics mentioned in the video?" for example), which means they also index videos. This is an unthinkable amount of data. I'm actually impressed at how bad Alphabet is with LLMs since they invented the thing as we know AND have all the data to train on, yet OpenAI and Anthropic are eatin…

Alphabet still cant fix search in Android Play store, so it works

You are assuming that Play store search is even broken from their perspective. I bet all their internal signals on it are positive, as in they make money on the fraud and scams, and crack down occasionally just enough to retain user trust.

Re: Alphabet announces $80B equity capital raise to expand AI infra and compute

#213
I think people don't understand that the value of the data generated by chats/agents is conservatively worth $200B a year. This is the so-called data-flywheel. Google is going to keep spending until they hit the break even point.

More than a quadrillion high quality tokens per year. Pretty soon they will have an automated team of scientists doing basic and advanced research in every field. All those tokens will be fed back and make the model much more inference efficient.

Re: Alphabet announces $80B equity capital raise to expand AI infra and compute

#214
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They know Google has a ton of data to train LLMs on. Recently I have been asking YouTube's new AI about some videos ("when is Steam metrics mentioned in the video?" for example), which means they also index videos. This is an unthinkable amount of data. I'm actually impressed at how bad Alphabet is with LLMs since they invented the thing as we know AND have all the data to train on, yet OpenAI and Anthropic are eatin…

Kodak problem. Kodak invented the digital camera but their revenue came from making photographic film. They were unable to take advantage of their invention because it would cannibalise their revenue. That didn't stop other people and the revenue died anyway. Google's main revenue is ads based on search. LLMs are a competitor to search. Creating better LLMs will cut into search volumes. In any large organisation this…

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Re: Alphabet announces $80B equity capital raise to expand AI infra and compute

#215
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> they know they can eventually clone any successes the other companies have Google has gone all in on AI. To the point of challenging their own core product. Apple is waiting and seeing. Google is building and distributing, albeit with terrible marketing.

search is not their core product though, it's ads. they ain't challenging anything.

Ads are meaningless without a surface to show them on. Search is absolutely a core product.

Re: Alphabet announces $80B equity capital raise to expand AI infra and compute

#216
post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kodak problem. Kodak invented the digital camera but their revenue came from making photographic film. They were unable to take advantage of their invention because it would cannibalise their revenue. That didn't stop other people and the revenue died anyway. Google's main revenue is ads based on search. LLMs are a competitor to search. Creating better LLMs will cut into search volumes. In any large organisation this…

This is a sensible-seeming take at first blush, but it doesn't hold up to any scrutiny (or maybe my scrutiny is faulty - you tell me!) Sundar and many of his executives have certainly read or heard of The Innovator's Dilemma, and I expect they're all moderately paranoid that it will be their downfall. Also, that's not it. Google has a great ai app called Gemini where they have at various points hosted the top ai imag…

Google doesn't seem to "get" agentic autonomy. Their models are trained to solve short problems really well, but they get confused over long time horizon tasks and kinda suck at tool calling to boot.

Re: Alphabet announces $80B equity capital raise to expand AI infra and compute

#217
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They know Google has a ton of data to train LLMs on. Recently I have been asking YouTube's new AI about some videos ("when is Steam metrics mentioned in the video?" for example), which means they also index videos. This is an unthinkable amount of data. I'm actually impressed at how bad Alphabet is with LLMs since they invented the thing as we know AND have all the data to train on, yet OpenAI and Anthropic are eatin…

Kodak problem. Kodak invented the digital camera but their revenue came from making photographic film. They were unable to take advantage of their invention because it would cannibalise their revenue. That didn't stop other people and the revenue died anyway. Google's main revenue is ads based on search. LLMs are a competitor to search. Creating better LLMs will cut into search volumes. In any large organisation this…

> Kodak invented the digital camera but their revenue came from making photographic film. They were unable to take advantage of their invention because it would cannibalise their revenue.

a bit more nuanced take on the failure would also account for executives backgrounds at the critical period:

- in 1981 Vince Barabba — Kodak's Head of Market Intelligence — conducted an extensive internal study that explicitly concluded digital photography could replace film and that Kodak had approximately 10 years to prepare for the transition.

- Kodak's leadership in 1980–1993 saw the company through the lens of its founding identity — silver-halide chemitry, precision coating and manufacturing, and the extraordinarily high margins of the film-plus-processing business. This identity-driven decade was spent on failed diversification and defending film instead of building an electronics cost structure and a defensible high-margin position. They steered capital and attention toward businesses that fit that self-image (specialty chemicals, pharmaceuticals, hybrid film products) rather than toward digital cameras, which meant fighting Sony and Canon on low-margin electronics turf where Kodak felt no competence and feared cannibalizing film.

- It was an inside executive culture, crystallized in the 1990 choice of film-lifer Kay Whitmore over the digital-minded Phil Samper. When Chandler retired, the finalists were Whitmore and vice-chairman Phil Samper, who had a deep appreciation for digital technology. The board chose Whitmore, and was explicit about why: as the New York Times reported, Whitmore said he would keep Kodak closer to its core businesses in film and photographic chemicals. Samper resigned and went on to become president of Sun Microsystems and then CEO of Cray Research — i.e., to lead exactly the kind of digital/computing companies Kodak was avoiding becoming.

- so when Kodak did get serious to compete in digital (in 1993 board made Fisher the CEO, he came from running Motorola and held an engineering degree plus a doctorate in applied mathematics) it did so as one commodity hardware maker among many and that was too late since film began to drop as digital started to pick up, exactly as Vince Barabba predicted in 1981

Re: Alphabet announces $80B equity capital raise to expand AI infra and compute

#218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I heard Google search volumes by humans were declining, but I can't find the reference now so may be wrong. It's definitely changing the entire SEO industry. Are they actually implementing ads in chat yet? I haven't seen an ad in Gemini yet. Again, the results I've seen is that LLM results in search have resulted in more zero-click searches (as a proportion of all searches), which isn't increasing engagement? But aga…

Even if they include ads in Gemini the issue is that Gemini is not the best AI app. It’s maybe the 3rd or 4th. So if Google becomes the 3rd best “search/AI engine” the future is not that bright.

Gemini is a brand new surface that Google has created to capture the current excitement around AI, but it's not the only surface into which they're shoving AI.^

ChatGPT's growth is incredible, but they essentially have to get all of their growth from inside codex or ChatGPT apps. Google can auto query Gemini with every search. There's an interesting piece of data which is that this tells them (on a conditioned basis^^) when is the chat result more effective than the search and vice versa?

Google can force growth of Gemini by leveraging their existing properties. This is a huge asset, and if you're wondering why Meta has artificially high usage of their LLMs it's because distribution is hard and Meta and Google have a lot of surface area to distribute on

^ no, I don't mean this as a compliment, although it does lend credence to the idea that Google is willing to update its current products with AI.

^^ ie conditional on the user's willingness to view the chat result

Re: Alphabet announces $80B equity capital raise to expand AI infra and compute

#219
post #17
post #6

Quoting: In addition, Alphabet has reached an agreement to sell $10 billion of stock to Berkshire Hathaway Inc. in a private placement, comprised of $5 billion in Class A Common Stock at a price of $351.81 per share and $5 billion in Class C Capital Stock at a price of $348.20 per share. This investment by Berkshire Hathaway adds to the position it has built since Q3 2025.

They know Google has a ton of data to train LLMs on. Recently I have been asking YouTube's new AI about some videos ("when is Steam metrics mentioned in the video?" for example), which means they also index videos. This is an unthinkable amount of data. I'm actually impressed at how bad Alphabet is with LLMs since they invented the thing as we know AND have all the data to train on, yet OpenAI and Anthropic are eatin…

> yet OpenAI and Anthropic are eating their pie

I'm actually impressed by how much the Hackernews crowd is sleeping on Google & Gemini. Yes, it's lagging behind in coding, but it's consistently much better and more reliable at literally everything else.

Also there was a period of time when Gemini was the best model out there...

Re: Alphabet announces $80B equity capital raise to expand AI infra and compute

#220
post #153
post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a sensible-seeming take at first blush, but it doesn't hold up to any scrutiny (or maybe my scrutiny is faulty - you tell me!) Sundar and many of his executives have certainly read or heard of The Innovator's Dilemma, and I expect they're all moderately paranoid that it will be their downfall. Also, that's not it. Google has a great ai app called Gemini where they have at various points hosted the top ai imag…

I agree that all of today's CEOs have learned from history and are paranoid about disruption, and I agree that Google is pivoting effectively and will even thrive in the AI era, given their technical and distribution advantages... but I think their revenues and profits and dominance will be much lower than what they are today: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47957708

This take overlooks most of the work that Google has been doing in the past decade.

Have you seen their Cloud business?

Moreover, Google has continued to drive search growth since ChatGPT arrived and is executing competently. Their models are good (not great), but they have enough compute and one of the best ML-focused chips such that they aren't beholden to Nvidia (instead, they're beholden to fabs: tsmc - this is a much better dependency since Nvidia is hell bent on extracting as much value as they can from their position in the stack and it would be against the nature of tsmc to behave similarly)

Will Google's ad revenue decrease? Advertising is an incredible business because it is anti fragile.^ Even if search revenues decrease from their current highs (I would bet heavily against this), they still have YouTube with shorts and a robust display ads business that is going to improve if AI supercharges the economy (more companies - # startups founded in Jan 2026 is much higher than # founded the previous January, more products, advertising and distribution become the differentiators for these products)

If you're wondering how anthropic is going to continue to grow its base, the answer is advertising. In fact, Google is situated to fundamentally support everything that anthropic needs. Who cares if they make worse margins than anthropic? They'll benefit from the entire ride up, and they'll do the same for the next startup of that scale.

^ https://stratechery.com/2024/metas-ai-abundance/

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