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Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

businessinsider.com

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Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#31

Post by abirch »

schonfinkel wrote: post #24
pjmlp wrote: post #23

Of course not, this is pure speculation just like in past cycles, until it goes bum.

And this time the boooom has a larger blast radius than all the previous booooms combined.

The largest so far. We have always been in a boom/ bust cycle. The difference is that they are coming faster and faster.

I need to figure out the next one.

The famous quote, "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent," is widely attributed to the renowned British economist John Maynard Keynes 1883-1946

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#32

Post by martinclayton »

pu_pe wrote: post #11

The stock market doesn't operate on long-term principles anymore. So, in some sense, it is immaterial that the rosy scenarios where AI is responsible for >$30 trillion in the next decade are unlikely. If you bet against the hype and it goes on for a few more months/years you lose as much or more than if you went along for the ride. Burry is well aware of this, he has written about how passive investing is contributin…

(Agreeing with you) In the 1980s Gary Shilling said:

The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

A long-term principle that I think does still apply.

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#34

Post by mrits »

jstummbillig wrote: post #33
pjmlp wrote: post #23

Of course not, this is pure speculation just like in past cycles, until it goes bum.

Minus, of course, all the times where it did not go bum, right?

Most people can't get past the kind of logic that declares Facebook doomed for 20 years because Myspace.

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#35

Post by pjmlp »

mrits wrote: post #34
jstummbillig wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Minus, of course, all the times where it did not go bum, right?

Most people can't get past the kind of logic that declares Facebook doomed for 20 years because Myspace.

Beyond GenX and Boomers who is still using Facebook? We don't live forever.

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#38

Post by hparadiz »

epolanski wrote: post #12
hparadiz wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anthropic is the one company where that makes no sense. If revenue really is about 50 billion annually and growing than that means that a 20x 1 year of revenue valuation is modest compared to the shenanigans that have been going in the market. It's almost classically textbook conservative in comparison. The moat with these corporate enterprise contracts is literally your conversation history and companies aren't like…

All competitors need are their latest model to be either better or similar but much cheaper. And Anthropic has no less than 2 big competitors in the space in US alone providing similar quality models. There's no moat in LLMs when you're as good as your latest model. Companies out there aren't in the business of throwing money down the drain. Take DS4, you can use Deepseek APIs directly with Claude Code, and you're un…

You forget the institutional inertia of how these things get negotiated from year to year. If something is working for people they tend to wanna keep it. The existing curation of how everything works is cheaper than rolling your own. Sure you can get something running yourself but integrations for a lot of people are worth some of this cost. Also for AI heavy customers (multimedia, video, etc) the sky is the limit and there's not enough processing for it right now.

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#39

Post by orwin »

whazor wrote: post #16

I think you could argue Anthropic could be worth $1T. With AI becoming an essential work utility, every global knowledge worker would want a claude subscription. There are 650M to 1B of such office workers. 300M workers × $50/month × 12 = $180B/year. The genie is not going back into the bottle, I have seen what claude code can do when properly connected to tools. But Micheals arguments are valid. There could be compe…

What probability do you assign to that, especially since CC harness code leaked?

Because I used frontier models this weekend (I had 78% of my assigned tokens for this month left, I wanted to burn them before June 1st, ended up with 24% left), and tbh, I don't see much of the improvement compared to the models I use day-to-day. I'd rather pay less for a slightly worse model. Stacktrace analysis (or any bug analysis really) is where LLMs have the most success rate imho, and free models are good enough since last year. As for coding/architecture tasks, frontier models seems to hallucinate less, but I wonder if it's the guardrails or the he model themselves.

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