Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T
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Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T
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Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T
#2AI doomers really are punching the air these days.
They will be right eventually and inevitably. Until then, it's funny watching them build a personal "brand" just to say "I told you so" when the market drops in X years.
Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T
#3AI doomers really are punching the air these days. They will be right eventually and inevitably. Until then, it's funny watching them build a personal "brand" just to say "I told you so" when the market drops in X years.
He didn't say AI is doomed or a fluke, he said that these two AI companies aren't worth 1T in capitalization.
The same way semiconductor, internet or railroad companies were not great investments regardless of how important the technology was going to be. It's still a financial investment and it's only going to pay off if bought at the right price, not at crazy multiples.
I will also add: if all your moat is your latest model, you're as good as your latest model and can be easily dethroned.
Strong moats are monopoly-like concessions (Verisign), exclusive technological edge (ASML), brands (Coca Cola), etc.
Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T
#4bro was right ONCE and now every tweet is a headline
Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T
#5AI doomers really are punching the air these days. They will be right eventually and inevitably. Until then, it's funny watching them build a personal "brand" just to say "I told you so" when the market drops in X years.
Your comment suggests that you (1) didn't read the article, and (2) have no idea who Michael Burry is.
Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T
#6It’s very risky to make these kind of claims. If the denominator (USD) gets obliterated they might very well be worth $1T. It’s all about liquidity and central banks have a whole bag of tricks at their disposal. They never want to see deflation shocks again and they prefer asset inflation.
Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T
#7bro was right ONCE and now every tweet is a headline
He's still right this time.
Neither Anthropic, Open AI nor SpaceX in its current form is a good candidate for an IPO at valuations that all but guarantee hundreds of billions of dollars in "passive capital" aka pension funds and ETFs will have to buy in.
SpaceX might have been a candidate on its own core business (aka: launching spacecraft and Starlink), but ever since the weird side deals with all of the other companies in the Muskverse (Twitter, xAI, Tesla) it is far too contaminated.
Sooner or later the AI bubble will burst - and assuming that the pension funds and ETFs buy in as projected, they stand to lose a lot of money that will make Covid's first lockdown + dotcom + 2007 Lehman combined look pale.
Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T
#8AI doomers really are punching the air these days. They will be right eventually and inevitably. Until then, it's funny watching them build a personal "brand" just to say "I told you so" when the market drops in X years.
He didn't say AI is doomed or a fluke, he said that these two AI companies aren't worth 1T in capitalization. The same way semiconductor, internet or railroad companies were not great investments regardless of how important the technology was going to be. It's still a financial investment and it's only going to pay off if bought at the right price, not at crazy multiples. I will also add: if all your moat is your lat…
> brands (Coca Cola), etc.
Paul Graham doesn't think so
Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T
#9AI doomers really are punching the air these days. They will be right eventually and inevitably. Until then, it's funny watching them build a personal "brand" just to say "I told you so" when the market drops in X years.
He didn't say AI is doomed or a fluke, he said that these two AI companies aren't worth 1T in capitalization. The same way semiconductor, internet or railroad companies were not great investments regardless of how important the technology was going to be. It's still a financial investment and it's only going to pay off if bought at the right price, not at crazy multiples. I will also add: if all your moat is your lat…
Anthropic is the one company where that makes no sense. If revenue really is about 50 billion annually and growing than that means that a 20x 1 year of revenue valuation is modest compared to the shenanigans that have been going in the market. It's almost classically textbook conservative in comparison. The moat with these corporate enterprise contracts is literally your conversation history and companies aren't likely to jump ship when everyone likes the tools so long as costs stay nominal. AI at most orgs isn't even the biggest line item.
Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T
#10AI doomers really are punching the air these days. They will be right eventually and inevitably. Until then, it's funny watching them build a personal "brand" just to say "I told you so" when the market drops in X years.
He didn't say AI is doomed or a fluke, he said that these two AI companies aren't worth 1T in capitalization. The same way semiconductor, internet or railroad companies were not great investments regardless of how important the technology was going to be. It's still a financial investment and it's only going to pay off if bought at the right price, not at crazy multiples. I will also add: if all your moat is your lat…
> Strong moats are monopoly-like concessions (Verisign), exclusive technological edge (ASML), brands (Coca Cola), etc.
Agreed with the exception of Verisign. Many a "security" company went bust like DigiNotar after mishaps or hacks. Being a globally trusted root CA or DNS operator is a strong moat - but also an incredibly brittle one.
And brands... brands aren't as safe as we thought either, as "store brands"/"private labels" are taking up more and more market share [1].
[1] https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/shoppers-are-tradi...