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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

economist.com

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#31

Post by JumpCrisscross »

philipallstar wrote: post #24
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there is too much money trying to pour into the market Keep in mind that inflation ran over 7% annualized in April [1]. [1] https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Inflation is a measure of the cost of living. It's not got loads to do with large-scale, institutional investments.

> Inflation is a measure of the cost of living

The faster your cash loses value, the stronger your incentive to trade it for something else. That something else can be financial assets.

> It's not got loads to do with large-scale, institutional investments

For investors, particularly retail investors, the consumer price index is most relevant. But for whatever it's worth, producer prices are up over 16% in April (7% excluding "foods, energy, and trade services," which jumped over 50% annualized) [1].

To be clear, I'm floating a hypothesis here. I have seen no evidence linking inflation to demand for these companies' shares. (If anything, it should be the inverse.)

[1] https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#32

Post by Avicebron »

aurareturn wrote: post #28
Avicebron wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are they offering the public (not me and you writing code in our free time)?

They are offering the public an opportunity to become shareholders and they are giving their investors and employees liquidity.

I mean as a long-term product, not as a offer to join a hype cycle.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#33

Post by bunderbunder »

aurareturn wrote: post #18
rconti wrote: post #2

So they're not just racing to gain dominance in AI, they're also racing to IPO before the music stops? IPOing and getting a bunch of cash, even if your stock subsequently suffers in the crash, is a lot better than being unable to get that capital infusion before the house of cards collapses.

I don't think OpenAI or Anthropic are predicting that the AI market is going to collapse. In fact, I think both are bullish that the public still isn't pricing in exponential growth. I think what is happening is that OpenAI is racing to IPO before Anthropic because their growth isn't as impressive. If you are the weaker company, you should IPO first to lock up the cash.

I can’t imagine them actually being bullish about exponential growth, when both seem instead to be stagnating. I’m more inclined to believe they’re just maintaining a level of hype in public because that’s what you do.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#34

Post by thrawa8387336 »

philipallstar wrote: post #24
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there is too much money trying to pour into the market Keep in mind that inflation ran over 7% annualized in April [1]. [1] https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Inflation is a measure of the cost of living. It's not got loads to do with large-scale, institutional investments.

Inflation then is already higher. Cost of living is driven mostly by rent

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#35

Post by qaq »

jmyeet wrote: post #17

So what people seem to be unaware of or are purposely ignoring is that OpenAI and Anthropic have invested trillions in a rapdily depreciating asset. There was a HN post from a day or two ago where someone bought a V100 for 150 pounds and connected it to their computer. Well that was a $10k GPU in 2017. That's the fate of H100/B100 GPUs in 5-10 years (and I suspect closer to 5). What do you do if you've invested $1 tr…

"OpenAI and Anthropic have invested trillions in a rapdily depreciating asset". Anthropic raised a bit over 100B and has 47B ARR. Where are you getting trillions from ?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#36

Post by Karrot_Kream »

hungryhobbit wrote: post #19
paulpauper wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People keep predicting "house of cards" and keep being wrong. AI bubble was supposed to burst as far back as 2023. When was the last time since 2009 there was a $500+ billion tech valuation that lost 90% or more? After a certain point , 100% market penetration is achieved and these products become mainstream and profitability follows. See Uber and Tesla for examples.

Read history: people always think everything is fine ... until it isn't.

This is one of those arguments that is so vacuous you can apply it to anything and always be right.

> "There's no way you'll hurt yourself walking to the living room"

> "Read history: people always think everything is fine ... until it isn't."

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#37

Post by SilverElfin »

Can the stock market remain legitimate after such a brazen example of dumping? Regular everyday people can’t access private shares and participate in upside even if they want to. They don’t have the connections like VCs, and aren’t accredited investors. And companies ban secondary transactions, which should be forced by law to be always allowed.

And then after all that, the public have to deal with their index funds, ETFs, mutual funds, pensions, 401ks, etc buying up these overpriced stocks. You have a space company that also acquired a failing social media platform and failing AI company with little revenue justification for the valuation, and a lot of other obligations that make it financially a disaster (like payments owed for spectrum). And two frontier labs with no real moats, each looking for regulatory capture based on safety or ethics or whatever.

To the everyday person, the stock market after the fast listing rule, these three IPOs, and AI job loss, will feel no more legitimate than prediction markets or crypto.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#38

Post by jackyinger »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #16
bickfordb wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only reason I can think of for the accelerated S&P 500 inclusion of SpaceX is a pump and dump

> the accelerated S&P 500 inclusion of SpaceX To be clear, S&P hasn't announced a decision on this yet.

Perhaps they’re afraid announcement would trigger divestment

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#39

Post by aurareturn »

asjgGa6 wrote: post #20
paulpauper wrote: post #6

Why wouldn't it? There huge demand for these shares. It's not like $3+ trillion is dumped at once. It's a tiny percentage of it, and the high multiple does the rest of the work.

There was a huge demand for the World Online IPO in The Netherlands in the late 2000 bubble. Retail investors bought it thinking they got a unicorn. Turns out it was a scam and shares fell on the first day. Soon after the entire bubble burst. That said, I don't even see "huge demand" for the AI triocorns right now. Unlike in 2000, most people are skeptical.

  World Online IPO
€64 million revenue on €91 million losses.

Meanwhile, Anthropic is adding ~$10-$15b ARR every month.

  That said, I don't even see "huge demand" for the AI triocorns right now. Unlike in 2000, most people are skeptical.
I personally think there is massive demand. I think Anthropic will easily eclipse $2 trillion marketcap on first day of trading.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#40

Post by JumpCrisscross »

SilverElfin wrote: post #37

Can the stock market remain legitimate after such a brazen example of dumping? Regular everyday people can’t access private shares and participate in upside even if they want to. They don’t have the connections like VCs, and aren’t accredited investors. And companies ban secondary transactions, which should be forced by law to be always allowed. And then after all that, the public have to deal with their index funds,…

> then they have to deal with their index funds, ETFs, mutual funds, pensions, 401ks, etc buying up overpriced stocks

Only about a third of American stocks are held by passive capital [1]. Out of that, index funds are about 16%, and most of those in America reference the S&P 500, which has not yet announced whether it is changing its rules.

[1] https://alexchinco.com/double-what-you-think-it-is.pdf

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