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Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

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Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#141

Post by chronic29521 »

PUSH_AX wrote: post #84
rottencupcakes wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's this sort of mentality and the prolitferation of passive investing that gives these companies the opportunity to pass the bag.

“Passive investing” is not the same as “buying anything at any price”. Index funds follow transparent rules and weights. If the company is overvalued, that overvaluation is set by the wider market, not just passive investors.

> If the company is overvalued, that overvaluation is set by the wider market, not just passive investors.

You probably also believe the markets are fully efficient and there is no insider trading ever.

Historically, it takes 6-12 months for the wider public market to determine the correct valuation.

That's why SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI are rushing to 15 days.

They know something bad will happen between 15 days and 6 months after IPO.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#142

Post by calgarymicro »

BoggleOhYeah wrote: post #120
roadside_picnic wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's more insidious than that. These IPOs aren't being rushed, they were waiting for all the pieces to be in place to force 401ks and other retirement plans to buy these IPOs. The most recent change was the NASDAQ adopting the "fast change rule" which allows newly IPO'd companies to be listed in the index after only 15 days of trading. This rule was decided March 30, 2026 and only came into effect May 1, 2026. The pl…

This has been a thing in the CRSP indexes (ie. the benchmark for Vanguard’s VTI) forever. As long as it meets float and cap requirements, it’s inserted into the indexes five days after trading begins. It makes sense. They intend to track the market as it is. Though, you can definitely make the case that the popularization of index funds has allowed their holders to essentially become patsies to hype IPOs.

> As long as it meets float and cap requirements

Even with the CRSP indexes this was recently changed to make fast-tracking for these IPOs easier.[0]

> CRSP indexes were also recently changed to better accommodate fast entry . . . Previously, these screens included having at least 10% of shares qualifying as freely tradeable (known as float shares outstanding, or FSO). However, in April the methodology changed to allow stocks with either 10% FSO or approximately $3.3 billion in float-adjusted market capitalization to be eligible for index inclusion.

That change is notable because both Anthropic and SpaceX are planning to IPO at well under that old 10% requirement.[1] Neither would have qualified for fast-track inclusion before, but both are virtually guaranteed to clear the absolute valuation bar.

[0]https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/some-indexes-accelerate-e...

[1]https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/06/01/c...

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#143

Post by whatshisface »

roadside_picnic wrote: post #52
cmiles8 wrote: post #25

There is a mad rush to get these IPOs out the door before the market sneezes.

It's more insidious than that. These IPOs aren't being rushed, they were waiting for all the pieces to be in place to force 401ks and other retirement plans to buy these IPOs. The most recent change was the NASDAQ adopting the "fast change rule" which allows newly IPO'd companies to be listed in the index after only 15 days of trading. This rule was decided March 30, 2026 and only came into effect May 1, 2026. The pl…

It is not going to take 15 days for short selling hedge funds to right-price these IPOs. It is going to take something closer to a few seconds.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#144

Post by rozenmd »

alemanek wrote: post #122
boringg wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FYI they have about a 365 day lockup after IPO before the execs can sell.

S-1 isn’t public yet. Source on the lockup period? SpaceX for example filed with accelerated release of insider/investor shares so I don’t think we can know if this is the case until the filing documents become public.

Common knowledge: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lock-up_period

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#145

Post by throw0101c »

anonymid wrote: post #130
findjashua wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

almost all 401k plans offer funds based on s&p 500, not nasdaq/russell others. s&p has also halved their trading days requirement from 1 yr to 6 months, but that's still sufficient to be past the post-ipo lock-up period.

I don't think the S&P has actually made a decision yet. It is in progress, though: "The S&P Index Consultation on MegaCap IPOs" is the search term

What is being considered by S&P:

> Stocks would become eligible for the index after six months rather than 12 months. The requirement to have a minimum Investable Weight Factor of 0.10 (roughly at least 10% of shares publicly floated) would be dropped. Companies would not be required to demonstrate profitability.

* https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/some-indexes-accelerate-e...

Though:

> Still, S&P Dow Jones reminds market participants that the proposed changes would apply only to index eligibility. The actual inclusion of new constituents remains entirely at the discretion of the index committee.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#146

Post by chronic29521 »

leonidasv wrote: post #58
root-parent wrote: post #19

Time to short the market. We are at peak bubble. "The stock market just did something eerily similar to the dot-com bubble top in 2000" - https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/01/the-stock-market-just-did-so...

The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

> The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

And you can consistently beat the market as long as passive index investors believe in efficient markets.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#147

Post by xboxnolifes »

PUSH_AX wrote: post #84
rottencupcakes wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's this sort of mentality and the prolitferation of passive investing that gives these companies the opportunity to pass the bag.

“Passive investing” is not the same as “buying anything at any price”. Index funds follow transparent rules and weights. If the company is overvalued, that overvaluation is set by the wider market, not just passive investors.

[dead]

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#148

Post by alephnerd »

cmiles8 wrote: post #25

There is a mad rush to get these IPOs out the door before the market sneezes.

That is not why you are seeing a deluge in listings. It takes 1-2 years to make a company IPO ready and is a massive operational headache, and the controls needed take multiple quarters to implement.

The reason you are seeing a boom in IPOs versus 2023-25 is because a large portion of funds that are from the 2016-20 vintage are about to hit the 10 year mark when LPs need to be made whole.

This means you need to exit your investments either with an additional round, an acquisition, or (the most common approach for growth equity which is what series D and later rounds are) IPO.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#149

Post by SilverElfin »

whatshisface wrote: post #143
roadside_picnic wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's more insidious than that. These IPOs aren't being rushed, they were waiting for all the pieces to be in place to force 401ks and other retirement plans to buy these IPOs. The most recent change was the NASDAQ adopting the "fast change rule" which allows newly IPO'd companies to be listed in the index after only 15 days of trading. This rule was decided March 30, 2026 and only came into effect May 1, 2026. The pl…

It is not going to take 15 days for short selling hedge funds to right-price these IPOs. It is going to take something closer to a few seconds.

Until the inevitable crash in price when the lockup of employee shares end and they dump their shares onto the market. These fresh companies shouldn’t be included into passive investing securities until 180 days at least. It’s just making the public bag holders.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#150

Post by throw0101c »

BoggleOhYeah wrote: post #120
roadside_picnic wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's more insidious than that. These IPOs aren't being rushed, they were waiting for all the pieces to be in place to force 401ks and other retirement plans to buy these IPOs. The most recent change was the NASDAQ adopting the "fast change rule" which allows newly IPO'd companies to be listed in the index after only 15 days of trading. This rule was decided March 30, 2026 and only came into effect May 1, 2026. The pl…

This has been a thing in the CRSP indexes (ie. the benchmark for Vanguard’s VTI) forever. As long as it meets float and cap requirements, it’s inserted into the indexes five days after trading begins. It makes sense. They intend to track the market as it is. Though, you can definitely make the case that the popularization of index funds has allowed their holders to essentially become patsies to hype IPOs.

> This has been a thing in the CRSP indexes (ie. the benchmark for Vanguard’s VTI) forever.

CRSP has recently changed their rules:

> CRSP indexes were also recently changed to better accommodate fast entry. New IPOs are eligible for CRSP's suite of indexes after five trading days, provided they pass the index's eligibility and investability screens. Previously, these screens included having at least 10% of shares qualifying as freely tradeable (known as float shares outstanding, or FSO). However, in April the methodology changed to allow stocks with either 10% FSO or approximately $3.3 billion in float-adjusted market capitalization to be eligible for index inclusion. The weighting of stocks in CRSP indexes is also based on free float, which should help address the investability challenges associated with thinly traded stocks.

* https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/some-indexes-accelerate-e...

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