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Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

anthropic.com

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Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#111

Post by findjashua »

roadside_picnic wrote: post #52
cmiles8 wrote: post #25

There is a mad rush to get these IPOs out the door before the market sneezes.

It's more insidious than that. These IPOs aren't being rushed, they were waiting for all the pieces to be in place to force 401ks and other retirement plans to buy these IPOs. The most recent change was the NASDAQ adopting the "fast change rule" which allows newly IPO'd companies to be listed in the index after only 15 days of trading. This rule was decided March 30, 2026 and only came into effect May 1, 2026. The pl…

almost all 401k plans offer funds based on s&p 500, not nasdaq/russell others. s&p has also halved their trading days requirement from 1 yr to 6 months, but that's still sufficient to be past the post-ipo lock-up period.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#112

Post by zipy124 »

thewebguyd wrote: post #96
outside1234 wrote: post #55

Got to dump this on everyone's SP 500 index fund before people figure out that there is a 95% drop in token usage when they are metered.

S&P 500 requires trailing 12 month profitability to be on the index. We won't see any of these on the S&P for at least a year or more.

The profitability requirements are potentially being dropped. Consultation just closed and may be implemented as soon as next week.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#113

Post by lbrandy »

avensec wrote: post #105
lbrandy wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a huge amount of misinformation on this topic, including in this thread, at the minute. Some index funds have a very long horizon before they include them (e.g. a year). Others are "fast-tracked" (e.g. notably VTI). Most of those, however, are float-adjusted, so only the stock available for trade is considered part of the marketcap. So e.g. VTI / VTSAX will buy spacex relatively quickly after the IPO but at…

Do you have any suggested reading references? Specifically, I do a typical 3FP and own VTSAX, but I don't read bogleheads or anything. True set-it-and-forget-it, but I do want to read more if things are shifting.

You should not trust me, but here's my understanding. I wish there was a really good writeup somewhere to explain this authoritatively but I'm not sure there is one. Would also love to see one. Frankly vanguard should do it.

VTSAX (and VTI) follow the CRSP index. This is float-adjusted but they likely will be fast tracked (these are two separate rules in how this index chooses to weight things and participate in new stocks). At ~5% float, these companies will be in the 50-100B range. So under all those assumptions, they'll be bought quickly but represent less than 1% of VTSAX (until they float more shares on the public market).

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#114

Post by alemanek »

noelsusman wrote: post #81
roadside_picnic wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's more insidious than that. These IPOs aren't being rushed, they were waiting for all the pieces to be in place to force 401ks and other retirement plans to buy these IPOs. The most recent change was the NASDAQ adopting the "fast change rule" which allows newly IPO'd companies to be listed in the index after only 15 days of trading. This rule was decided March 30, 2026 and only came into effect May 1, 2026. The pl…

Very few 401ks offer the NASDAQ 100 as an investment option. Last I checked it was <1%.

Total market indexes and target date funds will include this and SpaceX on float adjusted basis I believe. The blast radius is much larger than funds that track the NASDAQ directly.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#115

Post by snihalani »

thewebguyd wrote: post #96
outside1234 wrote: post #55

Got to dump this on everyone's SP 500 index fund before people figure out that there is a 95% drop in token usage when they are metered.

S&P 500 requires trailing 12 month profitability to be on the index. We won't see any of these on the S&P for at least a year or more.

I thought S&P also changed the rules on this one

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#116

Post by exabrial »

roadside_picnic wrote: post #52
cmiles8 wrote: post #25

There is a mad rush to get these IPOs out the door before the market sneezes.

It's more insidious than that. These IPOs aren't being rushed, they were waiting for all the pieces to be in place to force 401ks and other retirement plans to buy these IPOs. The most recent change was the NASDAQ adopting the "fast change rule" which allows newly IPO'd companies to be listed in the index after only 15 days of trading. This rule was decided March 30, 2026 and only came into effect May 1, 2026. The pl…

>The plan is to rapidly drive these prices up in the first 15 days, get the companies listed in the NASDAQ so funds are forced to purchase them at higher prices, then leave retirement accounts holding the bag.

Dumb question: why couldn't retirement accounts simply not purchase these?

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#117

Post by [deleted] »

parthdesai wrote: post #79
40acres wrote: post #65

After years of companies refusing to go public (looking at you Stripe), it's almost refreshing to see a hyped tech go actually IPO.

Is it actually refreshing? It's actually refreshing to see Stripe staying private for so long. That means, they have a sustainable business model, and can take on projects that might benefit users in the long term despite negative short term consequences instead of focus on growing at all cost for the most part.

[deleted]

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#118

Post by kingleopold »

boringg wrote: post #100
FuckButtons wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They all know it’s coming, if it pops before they ipo then they don’t get their billion dollar payday, they have every incentive to move quickly.

FYI they have about a 365 day lockup after IPO before the execs can sell.

I'm sure they can get private loads or similiar way to "hedge" those? also dark markets and other tricks exist. Fin. eng. level goes way higher for them, just contact inv. banker or their lower class friends. They will find a way.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#119

Post by sandeepkd »

boringg wrote: post #100
FuckButtons wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They all know it’s coming, if it pops before they ipo then they don’t get their billion dollar payday, they have every incentive to move quickly.

FYI they have about a 365 day lockup after IPO before the execs can sell.

It cant be that simple, I am sure that they will find some way to make money before that

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#120

Post by BoggleOhYeah »

roadside_picnic wrote: post #52
cmiles8 wrote: post #25

There is a mad rush to get these IPOs out the door before the market sneezes.

It's more insidious than that. These IPOs aren't being rushed, they were waiting for all the pieces to be in place to force 401ks and other retirement plans to buy these IPOs. The most recent change was the NASDAQ adopting the "fast change rule" which allows newly IPO'd companies to be listed in the index after only 15 days of trading. This rule was decided March 30, 2026 and only came into effect May 1, 2026. The pl…

This has been a thing in the CRSP indexes (ie. the benchmark for Vanguard’s VTI) forever. As long as it meets float and cap requirements, it’s inserted into the indexes five days after trading begins.

It makes sense. They intend to track the market as it is.

Though, you can definitely make the case that the popularization of index funds has allowed their holders to essentially become patsies to hype IPOs.

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