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Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

anthropic.com

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Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#91

Post by thewebguyd »

hubraumhugo wrote: post #14

With SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, we're likely to see 3 of the largest IPOs ever (by a wide margin) this year. Will existing institutional investors trim other positions to allocate a lot of capital for these mega listings or is this not a concern?

Most likely. Funds generally don't have much unallocated cash, they operate fully invested, so three huge IPOs will force an asset rebalancing which can cause some liquidity drain from the rest of the market.

Plus as insider lockup periods expire, that's a ton of dollars pulled out of the market and into safer assets. It's going to be a huge net exit of capital.

I'd expect a lot of volatility and pretty heavy downward pressure across the rest of tech.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#92

Post by bittercynic »

cdelsolar wrote: post #80
roadside_picnic wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's more insidious than that. These IPOs aren't being rushed, they were waiting for all the pieces to be in place to force 401ks and other retirement plans to buy these IPOs. The most recent change was the NASDAQ adopting the "fast change rule" which allows newly IPO'd companies to be listed in the index after only 15 days of trading. This rule was decided March 30, 2026 and only came into effect May 1, 2026. The pl…

If you believe this is going to happen you can change the allocations of your retirement plans.

You can protect yourself, but many won't be aware of the situation until it's too late, and institutionally managed funds won't be able to change their rules in time to avoid holding these as part of the index funds they hold.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#93

Post by FireBeyond »

giarc wrote: post #78
roadside_picnic wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's more insidious than that. These IPOs aren't being rushed, they were waiting for all the pieces to be in place to force 401ks and other retirement plans to buy these IPOs. The most recent change was the NASDAQ adopting the "fast change rule" which allows newly IPO'd companies to be listed in the index after only 15 days of trading. This rule was decided March 30, 2026 and only came into effect May 1, 2026. The pl…

I get the sentiment that this is unscrupulous, however, isn't 15 days enough time to find the right price? Or will that not really happen until first quarterly earnings report, which will not occur within that 15 day window?

I mean the goal is that you have multiple earnings report to show sustainability.

Meanwhile some of these companies are also lobbying to be able to only have to submit annual or biannual earnings reports, too.

Everyone is looking for multiple ways to leave the dumb money holding the bag.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#94

Post by iTokio »

giarc wrote: post #78
roadside_picnic wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's more insidious than that. These IPOs aren't being rushed, they were waiting for all the pieces to be in place to force 401ks and other retirement plans to buy these IPOs. The most recent change was the NASDAQ adopting the "fast change rule" which allows newly IPO'd companies to be listed in the index after only 15 days of trading. This rule was decided March 30, 2026 and only came into effect May 1, 2026. The pl…

I get the sentiment that this is unscrupulous, however, isn't 15 days enough time to find the right price? Or will that not really happen until first quarterly earnings report, which will not occur within that 15 day window?

No, IPO pops, and honey moon periods are common.

And there are plenty of ways to manipulate the price, such as issuing a low float to a hyper hyped stock..

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#95

Post by lbrandy »

barbazoo wrote: post #86
sschueller wrote: post #45

Where will it be listed? I am considering selling all my index ETFs in those markets until the this blows over.

I've heard of the changes to the NASDAQ rules and I somewhat get how they make it so these stocks are included in index funds earlier than before. As far as I know, NYSE and others haven't done the same change so index funds there are "safe", i.e. will include the stocks only after a longer period, implying that it will have settled in value by then. Is that true at all? I'm sure the situation is much more complicate…

There is a huge amount of misinformation on this topic, including in this thread, at the minute.

Some index funds have a very long horizon before they include them (e.g. a year). Others are "fast-tracked" (e.g. notably VTI). Most of those, however, are float-adjusted, so only the stock available for trade is considered part of the marketcap. So e.g. VTI / VTSAX will buy spacex relatively quickly after the IPO but at the float-adjusted weight of ~$75B because that's the % of stock available.

If you care alot about this, now is the time to understand how your index fund treats IPOs wrt to delays + float adjustment.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#96

Post by thewebguyd »

outside1234 wrote: post #55

Got to dump this on everyone's SP 500 index fund before people figure out that there is a 95% drop in token usage when they are metered.

S&P 500 requires trailing 12 month profitability to be on the index. We won't see any of these on the S&P for at least a year or more.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#97

Post by root-parent »

thomascountz wrote: post #28

SpaceX submitted an amendment to their S-1 today[1] [1]: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026...

And as suspected, the Anthropic deal is not recurring revenue, its just a think they can cancel anytime with 90 days notice...Release the bad news slowly and when people are looking somewhere else...

SpaceX AI segment lost about $2.5B from operations in Q1 2026 on $818M revenue...they are burning dollars. Musk controls about 85% of voting power through supervoting shares, and cannot be fired...go IPO buyers...nothing like economic exposure without control....

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#98

Post by mcast »

40acres wrote: post #65

After years of companies refusing to go public (looking at you Stripe), it's almost refreshing to see a hyped tech go actually IPO.

Stripe seems to be doing fairly well as a private company. They continually offer liquidity events for employees to cash out, while also retaining less pressure for hypergrowth from outside activists and investors.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#100

Post by boringg »

FuckButtons wrote: post #48
onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are we in a race to see who can pop the bubble first?

They all know it’s coming, if it pops before they ipo then they don’t get their billion dollar payday, they have every incentive to move quickly.

FYI they have about a 365 day lockup after IPO before the execs can sell.
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