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Right, the export controls are only forcing Chinese AI to innovate, build their own fabs, and make training and inference more efficient. The end game of this will be NVIDIA chips won’t be wanted because you can get a $50 chinese chip running a ternary model that is competitive with claude in English and is much better in Mandarin.
60 years ago the US government had forbidden the export of fast computers to France, with the hope that this sanction will prevent the French from developing thermonuclear bombs.
The result was that the French state (which at that time was lead by de Gaulle, not much less autocratically than China) subsidized some of their computer manufacturers, which previously could not compete with the American companies like IBM and CDC, and also their semiconductor manufacturing industry, which had to provide the components for the locally-made computers.
Eventually, the French produced TTL circuits and mainframe computers made with them, and finally they also made thermonuclear bombs.
So the American "sanctions" against France have been a complete failure and have been great for the French industry of semiconductors and computers.
Many years later, when USA no longer had export restrictions towards France and the French state no longer protected their industry, the French industries of integrated circuits and computers have been greatly reduced, their companies either becoming bankrupt or being bought or merged into multinational companies.