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Anthropic surpasses OpenAI to become most valuable AI startup

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Re: Anthropic surpasses OpenAI to become most valuable AI startup

#121

I never want to hear from developers again that they are not susceptible to marketing. I see meet ups specifically about Claude often. Modern tupperware party. A colleague was convinced Claude is better so we played a game. We used the claude code and codex harness and I implemented some prs they needed with gpt5.5 and opus4.7 and asked them to identify which came from which only from the code. Couldn’t tell. Edit: i…

I don't think it's only marketing. OpenAI had the advantage of being first to the market, and in the beginning of the race it seemed that the future belongs to them. Then came the bad PR and unpredictable quality of their main product.

For general use, ChatGPT's answers have gotten worse over the last year. I abandoned it.

Re: Anthropic surpasses OpenAI to become most valuable AI startup

#122

I never want to hear from developers again that they are not susceptible to marketing. I see meet ups specifically about Claude often. Modern tupperware party. A colleague was convinced Claude is better so we played a game. We used the claude code and codex harness and I implemented some prs they needed with gpt5.5 and opus4.7 and asked them to identify which came from which only from the code. Couldn’t tell. Edit: i…

Calling this a "tupper ware" seems a bit emotional, you're intentionally disregarding many things that matter for devs in order to try to claim equivalence, rather than paying attention to the actual process of software creation. For example in your "test" you're only looking at output and ignoring the entire process of creation. In addition to that process, you're ignoring that Claude Code was first and better for a…

No, Tupperware is the exact analogy. As you point out though, the multi level marketing applies to all models. Anthropic is just the most aggressive, especially here.

Software developers are the most susceptible of all population groups for amplifying their employers' new whims. There are true believers and useful idiots, but many are just mediocre and know that playing along will further their career for a couple of years.

In the end they will be fired anyway of course.

Re: Anthropic surpasses OpenAI to become most valuable AI startup

#123

I never want to hear from developers again that they are not susceptible to marketing. I see meet ups specifically about Claude often. Modern tupperware party. A colleague was convinced Claude is better so we played a game. We used the claude code and codex harness and I implemented some prs they needed with gpt5.5 and opus4.7 and asked them to identify which came from which only from the code. Couldn’t tell. Edit: i…

for me personally it's two reasons: 1) Brockman ($25M) and Altman ($1M) both personally donated to Trump/MAGA. 2) Anthropic pushed back against DOD's demand for unrestricted use of AI to kill people while OpenAI eagerly said "please use ours!".

Same. But even worse than all that: OAI erased Anthropic's red lines with the DOW, making it socially acceptable for every other AI company to do the same, creating a "race to the bottom."

I think OAI actually legitimately increased p(doom) for us all. Very strange behavior for a company that is supposedly concerned about x-risk.

Re: Anthropic surpasses OpenAI to become most valuable AI startup

#125
Ah, it’s a good time to check in with gwern on our conversation about oAI vs Anthropic: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40816755 and our predictions (ca two years ago).

Upshot - poetry expertise does not seem to be the primary focus these days, perhaps to the detriment of the entire world. We did move on from training scaling to “test time” scaling (which I hate as a name btw), Ilya does not seem to have been needed, (although I am really curious what he’s building).

My prediction that you want to be deeply embedded and really rich and part of global infrastructure feels good. My suggestion that oAI / MS would be able to use the lead in 2024 to extend was wrong.

Neither of us talked much about coding as a product that would drive value and behavior, which is super interesting to me, we were probably six months from seeing real competence of any sort there way back in June 2024.

We both seemed to think there would be a single breakout company, or could be one, (although I did suggest buying the basket), clearly not the case with GOOG oAI and Anthropic all posting serious revenues this last quarter / year.

One area of Anthropic that was nascent in 2024, but that I have come to think is super valuable is their mechinterp group. I still don’t see work done by other labs (at least published) to nearly the quality of Anthropic. And the group has clearly moved into a period of productivity; there’s a good chance in my mind it could provide a truly enduring strategic advantage as a tool to be used by the taste makers steering the ship. In 2024, interpretability seemed almost impossible to get a handle on — today, the sustained chipping away at the problem makes a lot more look possible.

Re: Anthropic surpasses OpenAI to become most valuable AI startup

#126

OpenAI’s models could be materially better than Anthropic’s and I still wouldn’t use them because I don’t want to support Altman.

Do you hold any amount of power in the world? A project that people care about, or a deliverable that someone depends on? Just curious how you can afford to care about the guy 7 levels above the men that built and support the API that you buy.

I enough 'small' senior developers, project managers, product owners, internal IT people take a small stand against OpenAI products, that can still sum up to a notable impact

Re: Anthropic surpasses OpenAI to become most valuable AI startup

#127
post #104

I think Sam Altman is an asshole and I prefer to spend my money elsewhere. Frontier models being commoditize is inevitable. OpenAI thinks they're still competing on technology, and not user experience and market reputation otherwise they'd understand the continuous negative PR generated by Altman's chaos is going to cost them everything.

He must have done something personally to you.

That's... that's not how social perception works at all.

Re: Anthropic surpasses OpenAI to become most valuable AI startup

#128

I never want to hear from developers again that they are not susceptible to marketing. I see meet ups specifically about Claude often. Modern tupperware party. A colleague was convinced Claude is better so we played a game. We used the claude code and codex harness and I implemented some prs they needed with gpt5.5 and opus4.7 and asked them to identify which came from which only from the code. Couldn’t tell. Edit: i…

Isn't the experience of interacting with the models appreciably different? It's not all about the outcome. Not to mention the harnesses are increasingly the real product.

Re: Anthropic surpasses OpenAI to become most valuable AI startup

#129

I never want to hear from developers again that they are not susceptible to marketing. I see meet ups specifically about Claude often. Modern tupperware party. A colleague was convinced Claude is better so we played a game. We used the claude code and codex harness and I implemented some prs they needed with gpt5.5 and opus4.7 and asked them to identify which came from which only from the code. Couldn’t tell. Edit: i…

Sure, none of this is rational.

Some of its timing: Claude Code was good before other harnesses and so behaviors (and contracts) were timed to lock in on that ecosystem.

Some of it was ethical/political: Anthropic fighting with the Trump admin about use of the model.

Some of it is social: Never overrate a CEO just being kind of perceived as a piece of shit by people who have power to influence decisions.

But switching costs are low! Because of the same models!

Let the race to the bottom commence. Hopefully before the monopoly/collusion starts.

Re: Anthropic surpasses OpenAI to become most valuable AI startup

#130

I never want to hear from developers again that they are not susceptible to marketing. I see meet ups specifically about Claude often. Modern tupperware party. A colleague was convinced Claude is better so we played a game. We used the claude code and codex harness and I implemented some prs they needed with gpt5.5 and opus4.7 and asked them to identify which came from which only from the code. Couldn’t tell. Edit: i…

1. It's 1 in 10 failures that can take half of your time or bugs that can take a long time to surface. Plus the way they change things largely depends on the current codebase (and how it was created)

2. In my case codex seem to be writing a more solid code, but I still use claude most of the time because it's my witty rubber ducky and I can actually sometimes force some legit insights out of it. Codex is much worse at this. And whether that matters or not depends on the project.

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