[dead]
Sam Altman and Dario Amodei are both walking back AI jobs apocalypse predictions
171–180 of 196 posts
Re: Sam Altman and Dario Amodei are both walking back AI jobs apocalypse predictions
#172Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think there's something else psychological going on. What you describe is a rational approach based off of bad values. But I think I'm also seeing something weirdly irrational. It's like an (emotional) depression or something. Scarcity thinking, the inability to think expansively. People are so sure that everything around them is shrinking that they feel an instinct to hunker down, shrink, and cut as well. Like it…
They can feel the contraction coming. They don't know how bad it is going to be. They don't know if their own jobs will survive. I don't think it's irrational.
But how can you be so sure a contraction is coming? (And when will it come? Just the idea that there surely will be one, someday, is not scary.)
Re: Sam Altman and Dario Amodei are both walking back AI jobs apocalypse predictions
#173Earlier quoted context omitted.
Companies only want to spend money on AI in order to save more money somewhere else. So if LLMs make some tasks easier but overall don't make a big dent on shipping dates because of all the friction points you mentioned, and more, then it will be difficult to justify buying all these tokens. Even if the shipping timelines are the same but the quality goes up that still could be hard to justify token spend too.
> it will be difficult to justify buying all these tokens I'll pay for my own tokens if it means can work one hour per day instead of 8.
Most Jobs I've worked at would've forbidden the use of personal subscriptions like that, as you'd be effectively uploading their intellectual property to foreign actors.
This can end with more then a termination - as in being literally liable/on the hook for serious contract violations.
So ymmv, you may want to take care with such an approach
Re: Sam Altman and Dario Amodei are both walking back AI jobs apocalypse predictions
#174So in the span of 2 years we've gone from "AI will be our new God and solve all of our problems" to "AI will replace all your jobs and make SaaS companies obsolete", to now "AI will have some impact on the job market - might be positive, might be negative - who can say?" I'm filing this right next to "blockchain for everything" and "we will all live in the metaverse" as evidence that most of these people are full of…
[deleted]
Re: Sam Altman and Dario Amodei are both walking back AI jobs apocalypse predictions
#175Earlier quoted context omitted.
The most maddening thing is that in our current timeline, the more obviously you lie and bullshit, the more you get rewarded. And winners can lie and bullshit with even less pushback, creating deadly cycle.
This has been largely true for the history of tech. The most-hyped technology usually wins out over the best technology.
I think GP is also specifically alluding to a recent surge of feeling like we're living in a post-Truth society now.
Re: Sam Altman and Dario Amodei are both walking back AI jobs apocalypse predictions
#176The Industrial Revolution led to a substantial decrease in agricultural jobs for humanity. But ultimately there were new jobs created. This happens with every technological innovation. It’s called creative destruction. The idea that some technology will lead to mass unemployment and then some kind of revolution…that is a myth that’s been around since Marx. Actually even before him. I predict the same thing will happe…
Many jobs today require 3-6 years of training, either degree, deploma, or apprenticeship. There currently isn't the economic incentives in place vs ditching the old guard and hiring new.
Previous positions need to go through the process again merely to arrive at the bottom of thebl ladder
Re: Sam Altman and Dario Amodei are both walking back AI jobs apocalypse predictions
#177[flagged]
Re: Sam Altman and Dario Amodei are both walking back AI jobs apocalypse predictions
#178Too little, too late.
I hope they both go yo jail over all that they have done
Re: Sam Altman and Dario Amodei are both walking back AI jobs apocalypse predictions
#179I think the only certainty here is what Sam Altman chooses to say in public is very much in Sam Altman's interests.
So working back from that:
- The IPO is the way to convert theoretical riches into real riches. Indeed if OpenAI business model never actually works out it may be the only significant chance.
- They want a large retail investor ( driven by hype and not numbers ) component to the IPO to maximise gain.
- They fear that the open public hostility to AI and AI companies put's this at risk.
- Hence the about face on the messaging. THe first messaging about job reductions was about the value OpenAI could capture - that was aimed at initial investors. Now they want to take money from the general public - so a different message.
Re: Sam Altman and Dario Amodei are both walking back AI jobs apocalypse predictions
#180I think the only certainty here is what Sam Altman chooses to say in public is very much in Sam Altman's interests. So working back from that: - The IPO is the way to convert theoretical riches into real riches. Indeed if OpenAI business model never actually works out it may be the only significant chance. - They want a large retail investor ( driven by hype and not numbers ) component to the IPO to maximise gain. -…
I asked OpenAI for comment on the above ( via ChatGPT of course ).
The two things it added is that being seen as too disruptive/unpopular creates regulatory risk which could impact future growth and profits, and also secondary reputation risk for investors both which might impact the IPO.