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I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit
821–830 of 1001 posts
Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit
#822I find this analysis confusing. PMF for coding was likely reached some time last year. Profitability, which is different, we don’t know. The article kind of confuses both without making a strong economic case or using numbers in a compelling way. I don’t understand what the Uber case has to do with this either. The Uber COO clearly said that at least in terms of ROI he’s not seeing the results either. My take is the…
And what happens when open models catch up in 6 months or so?
Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit
#823It’s funny how a US$30 ReSharper license that would give me a 20% performance boost in programming was out of the question, while me burning US$3000 per month on tokens for a 40% boost in performance never was questioned
Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit
#824Earlier quoted context omitted.
For coding you always want to go with the best model in the category, not something that would be the best model if we went 1 year back which GLM 5.1 is, and I'm saying that as a big fan of GLM cause I run a translation site where GLM is good enough for the price. Most of the money right now is in coding. Openai and Anthropic just have to be 6 months ahead of SOTA open source models and they'll capture most of the en…
> For coding you always want to go with the best model in the category This is transparently false, because the best "model" is still competent human developers. They're just more expensive. If you're willing to use current LLMs at all, it means you're willing to sacrifice quality for a better price, and your disagreement with the comment you were replying to is entirely about what the optimum tradeoff is.
It was true 6 months ago, not anymore. Frontier models now outperform developers on many tasks, be it on quality/readability/maintainability, and let’s not talk about speed…
Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit
#825So how do openai and anthropic plan to keep customers when GLM-5.1 is just as good and open source and a lot cheaper? I don't see the business model working. My closest friend actually does automation software for large companies. He does not use Claude or openai at all. He primarily uses gpt 120b on cerebras and glm-5.1 for heavy thinking work. And some other small models for various tasks. All open source. And thes…
I have 26 years experience. I code using GLM-5.1. Fron time to time I switch to Codex / Claude, and honestly I don't understand why people uses Claude or codex. With the right prompting, GLM is awesome.
Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit
#826They've got, ballpark, $5t to $10t to make back in the next 5 years, or the hardware buildouts will start getting written down. This means we're going to need $1t+ per year in spending, per year, on tokens. 200m knowledge workers in the world, 30m developers. We're talking about a world where you need 5% of every knowledge workers salary to go into tokens. 20% if you're a developer. That's a _huge_ shift. Most people…
At some point, if we reach stability on the models, we'll start getting silicon optimized for individual models. They are optimizing for time to market, not efficiency right now. I don't know how much it will move the needle on the cost math, but at this scale any improvement has a crazy multiplier.
But that means going back to "80% profit margin" Jensen and further digging your capex hole. The benefits would have to pay not only for current capex but also past capex.
But by then, I will be able to go one line down in my dropdown menu to switch to a newer LLM provider who doesn't have to amortize those past capex.
Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit
#827[flagged]
Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit
#828So how do openai and anthropic plan to keep customers when GLM-5.1 is just as good and open source and a lot cheaper? I don't see the business model working. My closest friend actually does automation software for large companies. He does not use Claude or openai at all. He primarily uses gpt 120b on cerebras and glm-5.1 for heavy thinking work. And some other small models for various tasks. All open source. And thes…
For coding you always want to go with the best model in the category, not something that would be the best model if we went 1 year back which GLM 5.1 is, and I'm saying that as a big fan of GLM cause I run a translation site where GLM is good enough for the price. Most of the money right now is in coding. Openai and Anthropic just have to be 6 months ahead of SOTA open source models and they'll capture most of the en…
And you propose the same companies that have been cost cutting and avoiding buying you a chair for ever won't start objecting to a $200/dev/month subscription? The finance department won't have a say?
Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit
#829They've got, ballpark, $5t to $10t to make back in the next 5 years, or the hardware buildouts will start getting written down. This means we're going to need $1t+ per year in spending, per year, on tokens. 200m knowledge workers in the world, 30m developers. We're talking about a world where you need 5% of every knowledge workers salary to go into tokens. 20% if you're a developer. That's a _huge_ shift. Most people…
I work for a tiny little company ($150MM annual rev with 9% net) and we are already looking at dropping $100k on hardware to run local models because, for us, they're "good enough." Our estimated spend for AIaaS would exceed that cost in less than a year. In a few years, there will be hardware capable of running frontier models good enough for most things at accessible prices for even tiny companies.
My much larger company has got people already using various models through Bedrock because the Claude and OpenAI limits are too harsh and it's too expensive.
Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit
#830Earlier quoted context omitted.
Agree. You have these tipping points when a model is good enough to do some task. Yes, a better model will further improve your capabilities but the unlock is at a certain intelligence level. We see this also with humans. People with very low intelligence can't learn to read. Once you cross a certain threshold of intelligence you can learn to read. More intelligence doesn't really help you in the task of reading. A p…
Have you considered that a smarter person will understand what they have read better?
Depends on the task and the writing though doesn't it?
There's not that much depth in a lot of 'everyday' writing. For many tasks that means that you don't need to be hyperintelligent - reading a recipe or a shopping list, reading a newspaper article, etc.