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Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

reuters.com

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Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#441

Post by altacc »

everdrive wrote: post #41

I don't usually see advertisements, but I was in a position recently to see a real-life television stream, and I was quite surprised to see them run an advertisement for Kalshi. I was pretty surprised that something like this would be advertised to normal people. I'd half expect the next ad to be for a hitman, or for beating your wife, or something. Seems crazy that this is tolerated whatsoever.

They need "normal people", or rather they need normal people's money to funnel to the small number of people who make most of the winnings on these sites. Gambling companies' profits rely largely on addicts who spend big and to get those addicts hooked you need a lot of people to have a go.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#442

Post by bilekas »

> Spain - like other European jurisdictions - considers prediction markets a form of gambling when bets are placed on uncertain outcomes.

What is the defense in the US for example that these are not gambling, "bets are placed on uncertain outcomes", it's that close to, if not the definition of gambling ?

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#443

Post by ropable »

Kalshi, Polymarket and every other prediction market should have been drowned at birth by regulators. They offer zero positive utility to the world. I hope that we follow Spain's example here in Australia; we have a hard enough time with legal gambling as it is.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#444

Post by ropable »

throwawa1 wrote: post #31

When I see people making money on Iran attacks, and murder of heads of state - it shows clearly something is deeply wrong with Polymarket. Its a level worse than Vegas or Indian casinos. A literal ticket to hell. I'm all for banning these evil sites.

See also: How Insider Trading Destroys Armies (Perun): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lz3vTUbClc

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#445

Post by [deleted] »

bilekas wrote: post #442

> Spain - like other European jurisdictions - considers prediction markets a form of gambling when bets are placed on uncertain outcomes. What is the defense in the US for example that these are not gambling, "bets are placed on uncertain outcomes", it's that close to, if not the definition of gambling ?

[deleted]

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#446

Post by ndsipa_pomu »

XorNot wrote: post #314
imglorp wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very close already. Death threats went to this journalist; seems someone bet on missile hits. https://factkeepers.com/polymarket-gamblers-vow-to-kill-jour... It also incentivizes leaks from insiders, sometimes endangering others. A soldier was charged for betting on a military operation. https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/us-soldier-charged-using-clas... And of course throwing pro sports, but that's been happening for ag…

It also substantially changes the definition of who's an insider. Polymarket has bets for random things like a particular word being used by an announcer. Suddenly the announcer is an insider on that bet.

I don't understand why people would want to bet on such an easily gamed outcome. I can understand that some people are compulsive gamblers, but it seems such a foolish thing to bet on. To me, it'd be like betting with someone about how many fingers they're going to hold up.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#447

Post by cthor »

ropable wrote: post #443

Kalshi, Polymarket and every other prediction market should have been drowned at birth by regulators. They offer zero positive utility to the world. I hope that we follow Spain's example here in Australia; we have a hard enough time with legal gambling as it is.

The utility is a fairly robust signal about the probability of certain events occurring. It's pretty helpful for grounding your beliefs about the world (in certain domains).

For example, I had a lot of people ask me about the Hantavirus and if it was worth worrying about. I didn't have to do any research other than look at the various prediction markets and see them all at 5-10% to determine it was probably a nothingburger. Much quicker than having to parse a bunch of fearmongering news reports and such.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#449

Post by epolanski »

dzhiurgis wrote: post #341
epolanski wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've seen contracts on whether California will burn this summer. Any bum defending these contracts is to me either a shill or way too dumb to understand the concept of incentives. Oh and there was an Israeli journalist that got life threats because he reported that an Iranian missile struck some place in Israel, and apparently there was a huge bet on it on polymarket.

Funny how average HNer is opposing Flock cameras that solve real crimes by covering it up as a "freedom" yet completely fine regulating contracts with hypothetical incentives.

The incentives are not hypothetical.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#450

Post by epolanski »

itsnowandnever wrote: post #359
epolanski wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These derivatives openly violate the Frank Dodds act, but the head of the FTC has said they won't act.

in what way do they violate Dodd-Frank?

The DF clearly states that there cannot be contracts on topics of war, terrorism, assassination, gaming and unlawful activity and in general anything that:

- incentivize harmful acts - create manipulation risks - are "contrary to the public interest"

So, all these contracts on the topics of US attacks, sports, whether California will burn due to fires, openly violate it.

But CFTC's head has publicly stated that they won't act on them.

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