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Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

reuters.com

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Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#391

Post by bit-anarchist »

tech_ken wrote: post #228
jespinel wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure! I can also be an adult, have fire detectors and insure my property against fires instead of hoping for the goodwill of the community or the government.

It's not goodwill though, I'm paying for public services like the fire department through my taxes. I like them to be owned by the government instead of a private entity because I don't want to pay the capitalist rent for borrowing their money; if we pool our resources we can cut out the middle-man and just fund it ourselves. Very typical human living arrangement I believe.

Just one thing: the government is a massive private entity and a middle man. The closest thing to the stated goal would be a contract between other insterested parties to pool resources for funding. The next one would be a local consumer co-op explicitly formed for that specific purpose.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#392

Post by madrox »

throwawa1 wrote: post #31

When I see people making money on Iran attacks, and murder of heads of state - it shows clearly something is deeply wrong with Polymarket. Its a level worse than Vegas or Indian casinos. A literal ticket to hell. I'm all for banning these evil sites.

During COVID, I was working on an esports startup site that was a mix of social media karma + betting. The idea was you had more karma and your posts got more reach the more right you were.

We experimented with extending this to non-esports topics during the election, which led to a bunch of Trump-based predicting. Then Jan 6 happen and the whole site went to hell. I pivoted the product because I just didn't want to deal with running a site like that.

Seeing what is happening with these sites makes me feel good about my choices. If I were in charge of a product that enabled this I wouldn't sleep at night.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#393

Post by mikeweiss »

solenoid0937 wrote: post #7

These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.

I would have expected it to be illegal in the U.S by now but we live in a strange reality where the current administration's family is literally profiting off of it.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#395

Post by jMyles »

Barrin92 wrote: post #177
ifdefdebug wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

well I see more problematic the people actually doing the Iran attacks and murder of heads of state. Betting on those is distasteful, but doing those things is where the damage lies.

the entire point of the argument is that they're the same people . Military bets appear to have significantly higher rates of insider trading than baseline[1], which implies two things, both catastrophic. One is that the markets leak classified information (which is the entire point of the market and it should be a national security no brainer to close it for that reason alone) but the even worse scenario is causalit…

> One is that the markets leak classified information (which is the entire point of the market and it should be a national security no brainer to close it for that reason alone)

It's not at all obvious that leaks of classified information are per se detrimental to _actual_ national security.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#396

Post by jMyles »

stackedinserter wrote: post #268
throwawa1 wrote: post #31

When I see people making money on Iran attacks, and murder of heads of state - it shows clearly something is deeply wrong with Polymarket. Its a level worse than Vegas or Indian casinos. A literal ticket to hell. I'm all for banning these evil sites.

[flagged]

I'm against state intervention on the internet of all kinds, including banning these sorts of sites but...

Yes, of course CNN is evil. Is this still even a matter of debate?

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#397

Post by daemin »

WarmWash wrote: post #53
solenoid0937 wrote: post #7

These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.

> as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world I would argue that the ratio between "power" and "money to be won" is too big (at least right now) for this to materially matter. No fortune 500 CEO is going to postpone a product launch so they can win $5,000 on polymarket. But some random guy will get his hair dryer to win a socially meaningless weather bet. It's not discussed often, but the liqui…

There was a good Perun video on this topic which goes through the various ways in which a betting market can distort or affect a war effort (and can be applied to a larger organisation like a company)

https://youtu.be/6lz3vTUbClc?si=_zLD1wI3TJ_ozbQZ

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#398

Post by [deleted] »

bit-anarchist wrote: post #386
kube-system wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Well, you are privately allowed to bet on whatever you like with another individual. What jurisdiction are we painting with that broad brush? This is far from universally true, even in the US.

Could you provide an example?

[deleted]

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#399

Post by hackyhacky »

dzhiurgis wrote: post #388
neop1x wrote: post #361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are betting against insiders, or rather giving money to insiders...

Ok, who are insiders for these bets: * What price will Bitcoin hit in May? * SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ? * Highest temperature in Amsterdam on May 26? * Presidential Election Winner 2028

> What price will Bitcoin hit in May?

Quick reminder that POTUS has power to strongly influence Bitcoin price [1]

> SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?

Quick reminder that SpaceX gets most of its money from the US government [2]

To say nothing of oil and other commodities affected by war [3]

In short, an insider is literally anyone who knows what the president is going to say tomorrow.

[1] https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/04/20/five-times-presi...

[2] https://spacenews.com/spacex-wins-2-29-billion-space-force-c...

[3] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/betting-on-iran-war-insider-tra...

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#400

Post by [deleted] »

bit-anarchist wrote: post #386
kube-system wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Well, you are privately allowed to bet on whatever you like with another individual. What jurisdiction are we painting with that broad brush? This is far from universally true, even in the US.

Could you provide an example?

[deleted]
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