161–170 of 559 posts
These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.
These markets decentralise that information asymmetry.
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So I take it you have a problem with laws against murder, fraud, theft, etc. Aside from the government, who is it that you prefer to do judgment and enforcement?
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Spain is a hub between Atlantic and Mediterranean countries and South America and a good chunk of the US. Trade against Atlantic countries isn't something alien to us (just ask the Brits in the Industrial Revolution) and the Mediterranean, well, since Iberia, Carthago and Roma...
Spain sucks because the economy can't compete with North Italy? Well, it's miles ahead against South Italy, even the South of Spain hasn't a second world vibe like Italy down from Rome. We are more balanced at least and South with companies like Airbus are thriving.
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There is no house? Betting is against other players
The service is the house, and they take fees on bets, so they are the only ones guaranteed to win.
Polymarket is a casino. A roulette wheel is not a "market". You can't beat the house.
One issue is that prediction markets provide financial incentives to perform actions in the real world. For example, if I want a head of state murdered, I can wager lots of money that they won't be murdered. If somebody wants to earn that money, they can simply bet against me and then murder them.
It's not an dispassionate wager like betting on roulette, it's a wager that directly influences the real world, at least a bit.
Of course you could directly hire an assassin, but that doesn't come with plausible deniability.
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Its just a dark mirror episode. I can't imagine waking up and thinking "boy I'll really make some money if we kill Ayatollah Khomeini today"
The other side of that argument could be something like: "Dude, Khomeini better not be killed, it'd suck for me, an average iranian dude. I'd probably bet he dies so I can hedge my personal financial wellbeing for that case"
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Disagree, I find their product valuable and use them daily as a source of unusually high quality predictions. When used for this purpose insider trading is a feature that improves the quality of predictions. I see some fraud as in any market, but the overwhelming majority of transactions are voluntary, open and relatively informed within a highly transparent system. I think that self fulfilling prophecy attempts by d…
What predictions? Why is it useful to know what the odds are for Trump to the word “postage stamp” in a specific speech? Why are the sports odds useful? Word mention market and sports market are the majority of bets after all. Seems like >90% of wagers are useless noise. Name 7 recent useful ones you actioned based on, one for each day of the last week. I’m very curious what those may be that you use it daily. When I…
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being pedantic here but > You aren't allowed to set up a life insurance policy on someone else's life, or a fire insurance policy on someone else's home This isn't really true. Lots of people take out life insurance on others as a hedge for many reasons, small business partner is one. Same fire insurance, we had a case where someone pledged a building as collateral and we took out separate fire insurance on the build…
To perhaps be a bit more pendantic. You're not allowed to take out life insurance on someone you don't know or have a relationship (business or otherwise) with. Life insurance on a business partner works. Life insurance on your spouse as well. Life insurance on the leader of a random country? Unlikely