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Uber president says AI spending is getting 'harder to justify'

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Re: Uber president says AI spending is getting 'harder to justify'

#71
post #60

There's also the issue that in any large-ish org, code production is hardly ever the bottleneck.

I like the qualification of "large-ish". When someone says code is not the bottleneck, I assume they work for a large company. To be fair, at a start-up developers think they code at least 4 hours a day, but it never averages that either.

Re: Uber president says AI spending is getting 'harder to justify'

#72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So far where I work its the Instant Pot, at least for the non-devs. We rolled out Claude & Cowork to the masses after a brief pilot. It was about a solid month and a half of heavy usage and then suddenly usage fell off a cliff. Once it stopped being a cool new toy, people just didn't find a use for it. A few mundane things got automated, but these were just back office admin type work. Nothing that's going to show on…

> So far where I work its the Instant Pot, at least for the non-devs. We rolled out Claude & Cowork to the masses after a brief pilot. It was about a solid month and a half of heavy usage and then suddenly usage fell off a cliff. Once it stopped being a cool new toy, people just didn't find a use for it. Your employer is doing it wrong. You need usage surveillance with sanctions for low/declining use, then people won…

Please tell me you're being sarcastic.

Re: Uber president says AI spending is getting 'harder to justify'

#73

What has been the end result of all the tokens companies are burning? Where does it show up in quarterly results? I can’t see how it’s sustainable just based on “this feels more productive”

A friend of mine added some pretty extensive iOS UI tests to a keystone feature hit by millions every month. They'd been kicking the can down the road for years, trying to fit it in their roadmap, and with Claude running overnight they were able to bang out the whole suite in a week. I'm not sure how it would show up in quarterly results.

Over here our CTO replaced Intercom with an internal equivalent that costs less than $20 / month to run, haiku and sonnet support agent costs included. In less than a few weeks, in his spare time.

Re: Uber president says AI spending is getting 'harder to justify'

#74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So far where I work its the Instant Pot, at least for the non-devs. We rolled out Claude & Cowork to the masses after a brief pilot. It was about a solid month and a half of heavy usage and then suddenly usage fell off a cliff. Once it stopped being a cool new toy, people just didn't find a use for it. Your employer is doing it wrong. You need usage surveillance with sanctions for low/declining use, then people won…

Please tell me you're being sarcastic.

It's industry best practice. All the market-leading companies are doing it. Do you think you know better than them?

If there's anything I've learned as a software engineer, it's that agreeing with and defending the ideas of business leaders and Silicon Valley VC influencers proves I'm very intelligent.

Re: Uber president says AI spending is getting 'harder to justify'

#75
I actually think Chinese models have already popped the bubble, we just dont see it yet. the only way to justify AI IPO market cap is basically if they get to hold most sw industry code hostage and then token-flate budgets to collect AI tax. short of that AI expense would very quickly mean revert to model + some margin. this means the moat for AI 'trillion club' is gone. In fact AI virtually guarantees that there is no execution-moat left anywhere, definitely not in code or that engineer with knowledge about that obscure mechanism. without the moat most of the sw ecossytem's margins would shrink (as they should).

Ironically enough the only moat left would be what you can buy from Washington.

Re: Uber president says AI spending is getting 'harder to justify'

#76
My concern here is that they'll mix two things:

1) workforce reduction

2) AI spend (reduce tokenmaxing)

They'll expect fewer people to do more with even less, while "more" is continuously increasing.

When I say "more", I mean that the deluge that engineering teams deal with comes from two sources:

1) the business side of companies - marketing, sales, solutions teams, etc.

2) outside actors, mainly security threats

The first source can now move to generate work for engineering faster than ever. They expect the nerds to do what they're told and get the features out now. The more features, the better the product, right? The saving grace here is that they're bound by the same management concerns that engineering has. There's only so much money that they themselves can throw at generating more work for engineering teams, and that might also come under scrutiny from management, so that acts as a brake.

The second source has no such brake, especially not with security threats. Either there's good money to be made by holding company data hostage, or there's an endless supply of resources (read: nation-state resources) dedicated to the effort to attack the company's digital assets. And of course, they're using AI to enable this, just without the "but what about the shareholders!?" handwringing.

If you aren't very, very careful with your token cutting, you're going to put yourself at a disadvantage against that second group.

Re: Uber president says AI spending is getting 'harder to justify'

#77
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Eats for the way - your driver picks up a takeaway for you to eat while they drive you to your destination. This seems like the kind of terrible idea that an LLM might have come up with. I'm pretty sure most drivers do not want people eating (especially a whole meal) in their car, and I can't imagine a lot of instances where you're calling an Uber and don't have time to get yourself food, but don't mind waiting an…

> I can't imagine a lot of instances where you're calling an Uber and don't have time to get yourself food Recently I got a car to take me to the train station and picked up food on the way. Seems pretty common to me. Of course, I didn't need or want it charged as a premium feature in the app.

I have never heard of someone doing that tbh, this is the first time.

Re: Uber president says AI spending is getting 'harder to justify'

#78
post #48

I never took tokenmaxxing to be about improving productivity directly; mundane feature work that comes out of it is just a side effect. I always saw it as a race between these big tech companies to get a generational advantage by being the one to discover the way of the future , with respect to harnessing AI to actually and truly automate software development. EDIT: whoa, I used "way of the future" as a reference to…

Eh, I also saw it as a rather blatant attempt to undermine the bargaining power of the Software Engineer (which had grown to insane proportions over the years) - both in working conditions and raw cash money. In many cases it really didn’t/doesn’t matter if the AI automation actually works, just that people think it could - and hence leave money on the table.

> insane

Not sure if you mean this in a good or bad way.

Re: Uber president says AI spending is getting 'harder to justify'

#79

Now feels like a very good time to be a small team of experienced developers who can largely work on stuff by themselves and not a corporation of hundreds of developers of varying abilities all now trying to show how much code they can generate and how many tokens they can burn.

Even small teams are not immune from the AI push. I work in a small not using AI while receiving push that I'm a problem for not. To the point, VP of company says if we don't all start using AI we'll be out of business because other people will. :face-palm:

Re: Uber president says AI spending is getting 'harder to justify'

#80

Now feels like a very good time to be a small team of experienced developers who can largely work on stuff by themselves and not a corporation of hundreds of developers of varying abilities all now trying to show how much code they can generate and how many tokens they can burn.

100% - I think that is also part of the divide you see online. Devs who work on massive codebases w/ 100s of engineers and see the bugs the LLMs create vs devs who work on smaller codebase w/ small <5 person team.
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