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Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

reuters.com

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Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#22

These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.

Prop betting on a transparent and equitable Exchange is a perfectly reasonable and egalitarian proposal - it's the Betfair Exchange vs Betfair Sportsbook model expanded outside of the scope of sports.

Allowing prediction markets to overlap with criminal incentives is a platform TOS and moderation problem; not a prediction market or betting exchange problem.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#23
post #3

They require no gambling license to be a stock broker on the Bolsa de Madrid stock exchange.

Equities are underlying collateral. Prediction markets are literally just betting on an outcome, no underlying asset exists.

What collateral is underlying the massive, state-sponsored, Spanish lottery ticket and scratch off racket?

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#24
post #18

These services run on the blockchain, right? So in effect, there is no blocking them.

Off-ramping to fiat would be criminalised and pursued beyond the wildest dreams of La Liga/Cloudflare. A gambling site you can't withdraw your winnings from is of no interest to anyone.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#27
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Equities are underlying collateral. Prediction markets are literally just betting on an outcome, no underlying asset exists.

Collateral is not uncommon in gambling (e.g. pink slips). That does not seem to distinguish gambling from speculating.

That's not collateral, that's the thing being wagered.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#28
post #3

They require no gambling license to be a stock broker on the Bolsa de Madrid stock exchange.

Equities are underlying collateral. Prediction markets are literally just betting on an outcome, no underlying asset exists.

Prediction Markets act the same way as Gambling Exchange - the assets are denominated as both sides of the book minus the spread.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/

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