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Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

reuters.com

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Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#11

Post by hmry »

solenoid0937 wrote: post #7

These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.

Yeah. You aren't allowed to set up a life insurance policy on someone else's life, or a fire insurance policy on someone else's home. For obvious reasons. But buying an event contract that pays if someone dies or someone's house burns down is fine?

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#12

Post by wsatb »

delichon wrote: post #3

They require no gambling license to be a stock broker on the Bolsa de Madrid stock exchange.

How do you defend these slimey companies? They’re actively running a mob casino and you still have people acting like government is the bad guys here. That doesn’t mean there can’t be better regulation of other markets, but comparing prediction markets to stock markets is a huge stretch.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#13

Post by petcat »

solenoid0937 wrote: post #7

These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.

> should be illegal globally

Let's not pretend that Spain of all places is caring about horribly destructive psuedo-gambling.

Banning "unregulated gambling" is just pressure to make sure that the Spanish gambling racket stays intact for the bookies already at the top.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#14

Post by RandomLensman »

delichon wrote: post #10
pantulis wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if it was the same --I think it's not-- you'll need a "SIBE operator license", and cannot do it solo, you have to be an employee of an authorized firm (bank, broker or dealer).

It seems redundant to have two different regulatory systems for slightly different kinds of speculation.

There are all sorts of different regulatory systems for all sorts of slightly different kinds of things.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#15

Post by amelius »

solenoid0937 wrote: post #7

These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.

Someone should place a bet on the lifespan of the polymarket founders.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#19

Post by delichon »

wsatb wrote: post #12
delichon wrote: post #3

They require no gambling license to be a stock broker on the Bolsa de Madrid stock exchange.

How do you defend these slimey companies? They’re actively running a mob casino and you still have people acting like government is the bad guys here. That doesn’t mean there can’t be better regulation of other markets, but comparing prediction markets to stock markets is a huge stretch.

Disagree, I find their product valuable and use them daily as a source of unusually high quality predictions. When used for this purpose insider trading is a feature that improves the quality of predictions. I see some fraud as in any market, but the overwhelming majority of transactions are voluntary, open and relatively informed within a highly transparent system.

I think that self fulfilling prophecy attempts by deep pockets trying to sway markets by bucking trends generally transfers money from more to less foolish bettors.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#20

Post by orwin »

delichon wrote: post #10
pantulis wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if it was the same --I think it's not-- you'll need a "SIBE operator license", and cannot do it solo, you have to be an employee of an authorized firm (bank, broker or dealer).

It seems redundant to have two different regulatory systems for slightly different kinds of speculation.

I think it's fine. Here renting (or teaching) light sails (light catamaran) needs a different license than renting (or teaching) any sail cruiser, including catamarans, despite being basically the same object (boats with sails). Feels that the small differences are enough to justify a different regime.
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