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Uber’s COO says it’s getting harder to justify money spent on tokenmaxxing

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101–110 of 360 posts

Re: Uber’s COO says it’s getting harder to justify money spent on tokenmaxxing

#101

I just realized my company is months behind this curve. About to blow my token allocation. Before I do, anyone have requests? Sincerely.

I hereby suggest you take the fragmentary excerpts of the infamous erotic stage play The Lusty Argonian Maid shown in The Elder Scrolls series of games and extrapolate them to 100,000 additional full-length acts.

Re: Uber’s COO says it’s getting harder to justify money spent on tokenmaxxing

#102
post #68

I always used to wonder this about software stacks even prior to LLMs, but it seems more relevant now somehow: When will Uber (or your favourite company) be 'done'? They've been writing software for 16 years. They match drivers to passengers. More software isn't going to increase the chance that I seek them out instead of taking a bus or train. Will their software be finished in 20 years? 80?

Most of the codebase is custom integrations for local markets. You can systematize some of it but most of the complexity comes from there.

Can you provide an example? What is different about running Uber services in Chicago vs. Indianapolis?

Re: Uber’s COO says it’s getting harder to justify money spent on tokenmaxxing

#103
AI productivity hasn't been well studied yet, but I'm betting that we'll end up with some variation on Price's Law, I.E. some small subset of workers get most of the benefit, while most just burn tokens with little to show for it.

I also want to call out the false productivity opportunities AI offers. There are whole teams building their own "gas town" and not shipping features.

Re: Uber’s COO says it’s getting harder to justify money spent on tokenmaxxing

#104

As soon as tokens stop stop being subsidized, heavy agentic use will become as least as expensive than paying an (entry level) employee. When this happens many companies will trade off havy tolen usage for (maybe a bit slower, bit less accurate) employees again.

A significant caveat is that there is a pricing mismatch that makes it so first party's can subsidize quite heavily.

Agents are expensive in large part because tool calls require round trips. It's because these APIs are stateless and not streaming so you have to resend the whole context each time. This means you have roughly #tool calls x 1/2 context size cached input tokens over any given session. Most API providers overcharge you by a huge amount for cached tokens. A exception being Deepseek. Paying OpenAI $0.05 for 100k cached GPT5.5 tokens during a possibly 2 second round trip agent tool call is like paying $100/hr for what is likely to be ~10 to 20 GB of VRAM residence (holding the KV cache).

Or it got offloaded to NVME and you are paying $0.05 for that much PCIe bandwidth.

Re: Uber’s COO says it’s getting harder to justify money spent on tokenmaxxing

#105
post #68

I always used to wonder this about software stacks even prior to LLMs, but it seems more relevant now somehow: When will Uber (or your favourite company) be 'done'? They've been writing software for 16 years. They match drivers to passengers. More software isn't going to increase the chance that I seek them out instead of taking a bus or train. Will their software be finished in 20 years? 80?

Weren’t they trying to do their own self-driving thing? I think this is partly a problem with companies that have had heavy investment. Uber’s value isn’t based on what they are doing, it is based on the idea that they are going to render ideas like owning your own car or taking public transit obsolete (I mean that’s an exaggeration but less of one than it ought to be).

AFAIK they gave up on doing self-driving themselves a while ago. I'm sure they are still hoping to be able to get rid of human drivers somehow.

Re: Uber’s COO says it’s getting harder to justify money spent on tokenmaxxing

#106
post #29

What if... we stop for a moment, and then, after thinking for a moment, we stop hammering nails with a microscope, and stop using token usage as a metric of productivity? I know it's sounds stupid, but what if

There is a complete lack of courage in the leadership of tech companies today, and top-down AI mandates are just another manifestation.

True visionaries think outside the box, but most tech executives are forcing their employees into black boxes, out of fear of not doing exactly what their competitors are doing.

We have lemmings for leaders, and that means that—much like the LLMs that are being shoehorned into everything—there isn’t room for original thinking. Everyone’s strategy looks exactly the same.

Re: Uber’s COO says it’s getting harder to justify money spent on tokenmaxxing

#107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every c suite in the country is panicking about being left behind, from their perspective it’s either token max or fade into obscurity, or at least that’s what they were sold

I don't think that's accurate. I think every C suite in the country is looking to do away with labor's leverage as much as possible. I think this is a cultural thing more than anything else, C suite + investors looking to get rid of those pesky humans required to prop up their lifestyles. AI is the most credible path toward that. Short, medium or long term returns be damned, this is a reconfiguration of society and t…

Like anything it's a mixed bag. I am certainly working with people who I think truly believe the "max out on AI usage or become irrelevant" line. There are people who will privately let you know they're just working with the current meta the best way they can, but others who are drunk on kool aid.

Trying to operate as a rational, thinking person in a lot of environments right now feels impossible. Rational thought is being treated like AI skepticism.

Re: Uber’s COO says it’s getting harder to justify money spent on tokenmaxxing

#108
post #29

What if... we stop for a moment, and then, after thinking for a moment, we stop hammering nails with a microscope, and stop using token usage as a metric of productivity? I know it's sounds stupid, but what if

I feel like individually, if you sat down with literally any reasonable person on the planet they would arrive at and/or agree with the tenor here.

I'd be curious to hear from people well versed in group psychology/dynamics and/or just a lot of leadership/people experience: what leads people to this type of thinking once they get in a group setting? It just... seems endemic at this point.

Obviously nobody here is going to know what I do or don't know, but I'm just increasingly curious what I am not understanding about this type of thing. It seems so obvious, yet that makes me ever more suspect that I'm oversimplifying it, or just totally ignorant about the problem in general.

Re: Uber’s COO says it’s getting harder to justify money spent on tokenmaxxing

#109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of the codebase is custom integrations for local markets. You can systematize some of it but most of the complexity comes from there.

Can you provide an example? What is different about running Uber services in Chicago vs. Indianapolis?

For example in Seattle you pay county fees, and then state fees, and then maybe special fees if you were picked up in the airport.

I took a ride from SEATAC to my hotel in downtown Seattle and besides the ride itself, there were 5 other items on the bill, 4 of which are specific to the place I used Uber.

Then I had the return trip from my hotel to SEATAC, on this one I got EIGHT items on the bill, on top of the ride fare. Some specific to Seattle itself, some specific to the road that the Uber took (a tunnel fee - which is different based on the direction you take it in), etc.

So the real question is what is NOT different between two locations. Less than 15% of the bill.

I also took Uber in India, where you have to share a one-time password with the driver for example, which I've never seen in any other country.

In some other countries the Uber app exists but Uber drivers are actually taxis, so you're actually ordering a taxi via the app.

Re: Uber’s COO says it’s getting harder to justify money spent on tokenmaxxing

#110
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every c suite in the country is panicking about being left behind, from their perspective it’s either token max or fade into obscurity, or at least that’s what they were sold

Please. These are the same people that force their employees to use Microsoft teams because slack is $5 an employee a month. They're not going to sit idly by while employees burn thousands a month in tokens.

It depends on which people you're referring to. The allocation toward AI budget has been so massive that I think a lot of businesses are way behind on trying to assess value for dollar for the AI-related crud they're shelling out for.
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