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Memory has grown to nearly two-thirds of AI chip component costs

epoch.ai

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Re: Memory has grown to nearly two-thirds of AI chip component costs

#71

Post by johnvanommen »

mattmanser wrote: post #49
johnvanommen wrote: post #48

I really don’t want to give anyone ideas, but doesn’t this make the Nvidia 5090 an unbelievably good deal right now? The VRAM in the 5090 is only made by one country in the world. The 50xx series is special, because its ram is so dependent on a single commodity. It’s not like a 4090 or a 3090; their VRAM chips have been around for years. If there’s a shortage or interruption in DDR7 VRAM, it seems like every GPU that…

It's gone up like 300% in cost in the last year.

I believe msrp is $2000 right?

Re: Memory has grown to nearly two-thirds of AI chip component costs

#72

Post by johnvanommen »

KronisLV wrote: post #20

I'm not moving past my DDR4 build (and the 32 GB of DDR4 2133 MHz backup chips I still have around from way back, before I got the current 3200 MHz ones) until the prices go back to being at least partially sane. This also means that CPU manufacturers are not getting my money (since the 5800X is fine for now) and I have no reason to get a new GPU either (though admittedly the B580 isn't perfect).

What if this is the lowest that prices will ever be?

Re: Memory has grown to nearly two-thirds of AI chip component costs

#73

Post by granzymes »

shaky-carrousel wrote: post #15
deadbabe wrote: post #7

Here’s the thing, what if memory manufacturers take this opportunity to collude and basically never reduce the price of memory below the current levels since it’s too hard for a new competitor to just rise up and undercut them? Everything I hear about is how hard and risky it is to spin up a new fab. And by doing this, they ensure local LLMs never become feasible for the vast majority of people and AI companies solid…

Then China will come and eat their lunch. I for one will only buy Chinese RAM from now on, no matter the prices.

>I for one will only buy Chinese RAM from now on, no matter the prices.

Memory is a commodity, so I think you will be very lonely in your quest.

Re: Memory has grown to nearly two-thirds of AI chip component costs

#74

Post by johnvanommen »

aunty_helen wrote: post #66
oceansky wrote: post #6

Awful time for gamers and PC hobbyists not fully into AI.

This is 100% going to kill the home built pc market. When I started building gaming pcs, the top top card was 750$ (NZD). Now they’re 10,000 just for the gpu and another 1-2000 for ram. People used to get into gaming pcs as an affordable hobby, now it’s making general aviation look like plan B.

Yes, this will definitely renew interest in Stadia type products.

Re: Memory has grown to nearly two-thirds of AI chip component costs

#75

Post by LPisGood »

zx8080 wrote: post #70
minraws wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean the biggest risk is Chinese CXML benefits and capturing markets that others are leaving hanging and then being able to compete and push out the others when costs start to normalize. As for 20-25% growth not being enough, I think it's not that far off, if we assume data center build out plans hit a wall and slow down significantly, and the AI heat starts to cool off. I don't think 20-25% may be enough in the sh…

What is the risk? Competition is good for consumers.

The risk is to the business not the consumers

Re: Memory has grown to nearly two-thirds of AI chip component costs

#76

Post by wahnfrieden »

aurareturn wrote: post #61
deadbabe wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Current DOJ is corrupt as fuck, it will not happen. Get back to reality.

They will respond when people are loud enough. If memory stays at $1200 for 128GB for years and investigative journalists say it could be colluding, enough people will make enough noise. I’m sure Nvidia, Elon, Tim Cook, OpenAI, Anthropic are already whispering in Trump’s ears to do something.

Once the masses are disenfranchised network state serfs according to plan, loudness won't matter

Re: Memory has grown to nearly two-thirds of AI chip component costs

#77

Post by Joel_Mckay »

adroitboss wrote: post #50
slicktux wrote: post #2

I bought 96GB of RAM a couple of years ago for ~$250. That same RAM now costs $1200!

I paid $279 for crucial 96gb DDR5 5600 MHz SO-DIMM ram October 22 of last year. Amazon has the same kit going for $1,048.90 right now.

Nice, you were lucky. =3

Re: Memory has grown to nearly two-thirds of AI chip component costs

#78

Post by skybrian »

Traubenfuchs wrote: post #46

Why did this happen so suddenly? Why were tech savy investors unable to figure this out when the datacenter craze had already started? How to explain this lag between quickly rising demand for all datacenter components besides memory?

RAM is a boom-and-bust industry, so memory manufacturers were reluctant to invest. Here's a good blog post on the economics:

https://davidoks.blog/p/ai-is-killing-the-cheap-smartphone

Maybe long-term purchase agreements from big buyers might have helped convince them it's okay to build, but apparently it didn't happen.

Re: Memory has grown to nearly two-thirds of AI chip component costs

#79

Post by EnPissant »

mattmanser wrote: post #49
johnvanommen wrote: post #48

I really don’t want to give anyone ideas, but doesn’t this make the Nvidia 5090 an unbelievably good deal right now? The VRAM in the 5090 is only made by one country in the world. The 50xx series is special, because its ram is so dependent on a single commodity. It’s not like a 4090 or a 3090; their VRAM chips have been around for years. If there’s a shortage or interruption in DDR7 VRAM, it seems like every GPU that…

It's gone up like 300% in cost in the last year.

There was only a very brief time it was selling for MSRP (last fall for $2000). Even if you use that as the previous data point, it's only 200% increased.
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