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Earlier quoted context omitted.
I mean, god willing, but it'll be just as likely that we'll blissfully consume 100 million token contexts in that case.
isn't there a law for that? as things become cheaper you consume more?
The algorithm advances are going to crash this so hard.
Awful time for gamers and PC hobbyists not fully into AI.
Here’s the thing, what if memory manufacturers take this opportunity to collude and basically never reduce the price of memory below the current levels since it’s too hard for a new competitor to just rise up and undercut them? Everything I hear about is how hard and risky it is to spin up a new fab. And by doing this, they ensure local LLMs never become feasible for the vast majority of people and AI companies solid…
The reason memory prices can stay high for years in this mega cycle is because the 3 players will be very cautious on overbuilding. They’d rather under build, make great profit (not maximum) and reduce the risk of going bust if this suddenly ends.
Same for TSMC in chips.
Great opportunity for Chinese companies though. This shortage is exactly what Chinese companies need to scale.
Here’s the thing, what if memory manufacturers take this opportunity to collude and basically never reduce the price of memory below the current levels since it’s too hard for a new competitor to just rise up and undercut them? Everything I hear about is how hard and risky it is to spin up a new fab. And by doing this, they ensure local LLMs never become feasible for the vast majority of people and AI companies solid…
Here’s the thing, what if memory manufacturers take this opportunity to collude and basically never reduce the price of memory below the current levels since it’s too hard for a new competitor to just rise up and undercut them? Everything I hear about is how hard and risky it is to spin up a new fab. And by doing this, they ensure local LLMs never become feasible for the vast majority of people and AI companies solid…
Keeping prices at this level is precisely how one or more competitor will rise up. Making memory isn’t super hard. That’s why it is a commodity. The problem with the memory market is that up and down cycles have bankrupted the vast majority of players in the past. Now we only have 3 players left except for a few smaller ones in China. The reason memory prices can stay high for years in this mega cycle is because the…
Exactly, so what’s the incentive for anyone to sink half a billy into building out more capacity.
The existing players get to rest on their laurels and succeed whether or not the AI bubble busts.
NVIDIA in their recent quarterly report stopped categorizing "Geforce" as a single category, and merged it into "Edge-Computing".
If you are a PC Gamer or PC Enthusiast as I am, then we have some dark times ahead.
Here’s the thing, what if memory manufacturers take this opportunity to collude and basically never reduce the price of memory below the current levels since it’s too hard for a new competitor to just rise up and undercut them? Everything I hear about is how hard and risky it is to spin up a new fab. And by doing this, they ensure local LLMs never become feasible for the vast majority of people and AI companies solid…