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Microsoft starts canceling Claude Code licenses

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Re: Microsoft starts canceling Claude Code licenses

#71
post #39
post #26

I think whats funny is that employees were most likely already covering the cost for these tools because they are useful. Companies didn't believe employees were using these tools and now have forced their usage and no longer have the costs subsidized. Similarly companies seem to reward high token usage as a sign of someone willing to play ball with AI and again have forced higher costs on themselves for people rewar…

There is no world where I can put my company’s data through an external site without their express consent and security sign off. I suspect at most companies there’s zero path for people to have been paying for it themselves.

An enormous percentage of America’s white collar work force has been doing this since 2023.

Fun fact, up until you face a consequence for crime, all crime is free! Have fun and go win the competition game against your co-workers.

Re: Microsoft starts canceling Claude Code licenses

#72
post #48

The way coding agent work is fantastically wasteful. All the megabytes of code are processed over and over and over, sometimes withing just one session. There are papers describing KV cache precomputation for commonly used documents (e.g. KVLink), but, of course, it's not a priority for model providers: they'd rather sell you more tokens, also they would rather get to AGI/ASI first than optimize usage of existing mod…

Claude code gets >98% KV cache hits. It’s not reprocessing unless you let the cache go cold (5 minutes, which is annoyingly short).

I believe OP is talking about new sessions or after compaction. He’s getting at the fact that LLMs are stateless and have to rediscover your codebase on every new session.

Re: Microsoft starts canceling Claude Code licenses

#73
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suspect AI would have to get drastically more expensive before it starts looking worse than payroll. If one developer using Claude Code can effectively substitute for 2 developers, you are already coming out ahead at current API pricing assuming very heavy usage, your cost is going to be ~1.5x developer (factoring in beyond salary - benefits, PTO, the other overhead that comes with having employees). So you're gett…

You're starting from the assumption that its a 2x benefit. That's a massive leap.

True, that was more hypothetical if it got good enough to 2x.

But even taking a more realistic 1.25x (20% time savings) gain, lets say you drop from 500 to 400 devs, you'd have to hit around $4,000/dev/month in token spend before hiring humans again would break even.

Payroll is just expensive, in most companies it's by far the biggest expense. AI still has to cost drastically more before investors would call it out as being worse than increasing headcount, from a pure dollars perspective.

Re: Microsoft starts canceling Claude Code licenses

#74

Surely a company as large as Microsoft is actively attempting to build their own models. They couldn't possibly have expected to stake the future of their software development on the conditions of a third party company?

Okay, but what if you're not Microsofts size and don't have and R&D budget large enough to fund development of your own models and tools? This is a warning to any company, not building their own AI, that AI assisted development could become really expensive really fast and most likely won't pay off. What Microsoft is suggesting is that the current price is to high, but it's still not high enough for e.g. Anthropic to…

Giving your workforce Claude is like giving everyone in the USPS a Ferrari.

There may be a spot of “good enough to pay for and make a profit” that exists.

Re: Microsoft starts canceling Claude Code licenses

#75

Surely a company as large as Microsoft is actively attempting to build their own models. They couldn't possibly have expected to stake the future of their software development on the conditions of a third party company?

> attempting to build their own models. At one point there were rumours that they'd do that. They also have the rigts to oAI models for a few more years still, so they could always use that but apparently they're also compute starved (like anyone else).

MSFT does have a frontier AI Lab. My friend works there. I don’t know what they’re doing. But MSFT is one of like 5 entities that actually have the talent and physical infrastructure to compete in model-building.

Re: Microsoft starts canceling Claude Code licenses

#76
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At the enterprise level though, its going to be hard to want to use a service in which costs are not predictable, and keeping those costs under control requires employee training.

To be fair, the cost of software development has always been fairly unpredictable. What may be different is that the cost used to be roughly proportional to man-hours spent, while now the number of agents running in parallel may be less predictable.

The cost per month is 100% known and always has been. What has been variable is the rate of delivery. AI is different and can be substantial in countries with lower wages.

Re: Microsoft starts canceling Claude Code licenses

#77
post #35

Thus does kind of beg the question: If developers are being laid off because AI is better/faster/cheaper or makes all their people 10x or whatever fig leaf, what happens if the required tooling ends up being more expensive? From the investor’s point of view is the drag of employee costs better or worse than a ballooning expense item?

I suspect AI would have to get drastically more expensive before it starts looking worse than payroll. If one developer using Claude Code can effectively substitute for 2 developers, you are already coming out ahead at current API pricing assuming very heavy usage, your cost is going to be ~1.5x developer (factoring in beyond salary - benefits, PTO, the other overhead that comes with having employees). So you're gett…

This is economy dependant. It’s really Indians why will take the brunt of AI job losses.

Re: Microsoft starts canceling Claude Code licenses

#79
post #5

There's definitely a way to use Claude code that is token conscious. I've tried throwing unsupervised agentic software factory workflows against the wall, and they burned through my tokens like nobody's business but didn't produce much. Supervised, human-in-the-loop process on the other hand is much more productive but doesn't consume nearly as much. Maybe that's why everyone's pushing agentic approaches so much.

At the enterprise level though, its going to be hard to want to use a service in which costs are not predictable, and keeping those costs under control requires employee training.

Am I losing my mind, aren't there multiple headlines each day about companies penalizing employees for not using AI enough?

Re: Microsoft starts canceling Claude Code licenses

#80

Feels about right. I've launched an internal demo of Claude Code and Deepseek on the same day and we burned through our monthly allowance for Claude in just over a week, with more than a half of that budget being spent in one day. With DS people are unable to go through that same amount of money in a month, not even close. With that Claude feels like an expensive toy, while DS is a shovel, purely because developers d…

Considered Gemini?

Gemini got a big reduction in usage limits this week. There was backlash and they added 3x usage for Antigravity a day later but I haven't really tried it out to get a feel for it yet.
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