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The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics

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Re: The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics

#471

Post by wmeredith »

gbriel wrote: post #145
supriyo-biswas wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's called a monopsony[1], regardless, antitrust regulation is famously dead under the current US administration. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monopsony

Regulation is dead under this current US administration (unless you pay a bribe). It's so weird this is where we are right now and most of the tech leadership has to play along even though it's technically illegal?

> most of the tech leadership has to play along

Many of them orchestrated the situation.

Re: The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics

#472

Post by azan_ »

einpoklum wrote: post #440
azan_ wrote: post #342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Increased demand will result in more money for new hardware investments and will in the end decrease prices and provide better technology for everyone. Like it always has.

I'm sure you tell homeless people on the street that their demand for housing will in the end increase availability for everyone, like it always does, so everything is fine.

> I'm sure you tell homeless people on the street that their demand for housing will in the end increase availability for everyone

Whatever you say mate.

Re: The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics

#473

Post by hcurtiss »

hackyhacky wrote: post #428
Aerroon wrote: post #387

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't understand the point of capitalism. It's not about making rich people richer. Capitalism is about producing stuff. To create a large variety of (useful) products for society. You need capital to make pretty much anything. Somebody has to come up with a large amount of resources (money) put upfront into the venture. Capitalism creates the incentive for that - if the gamble pays off, then the investors get mo…

> You don't understand the point of capitalism. It's not about making rich people richer. Making the rich richer isn't necessarily the point, but it is an unavoidable consequence. > Capitalism is about producing stuff. Humans have been producing stuff well before the concept of ownership was invented, and certainly well before the massive wealth accumulation that is the hallmark of capitalism.

And almost for the entirety of that period, humans lived in abject poverty. The rise of capitalism perfectly correlates with the most spectacular increase in human flourishing and prosperity in the history of our species. Even in the last fifty years, liberalizing economies, private ownership, and contract law have lifted tens of millions out of poverty, mostly in SE Asia.

Re: The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics

#474

Post by mrandish »

trollbridge wrote: post #410
ceejayoz wrote: post #353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the same world 8GB used to be unfathomably huge not that long ago? Hell, an 8GB hard drive was unfathomable when I was a kid in the 90s. I remember getting a 30 megabyte drive for our Mac LC.

The first computer I ever used had 512K, which was a great deal back then, and by the time I was old enough to learn to type it had 10MB disk too. My childhood best friend and neighbour had the same kind of computer except they only had something like 384K of memory and I tried to convince them their computer was broken when it didn't count up all the way.

> The first computer I ever used had 512K

Mine had 4K of RAM and an 800 KHz CPU - and I was living in the future, man. No way I could use that much memory. After all I had to type in whatever program I wanted to run every time I turned it on. Then I got a manual audio cassette recorder and thought "Woah, I don't think it gets better than this!"

Re: The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics

#475

Post by tracker1 »

Scoundreller wrote: post #433
xnorswap wrote: post #389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that Slack's memory usage is "not bad" at ~300MB just because Discord exists, and somehow that seems to get into the gigabytes before even looking at a message.

Too much of IRC has been lost to Discord :(

LiberaChat FTW!

Re: The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics

#476

Post by WalterBright »

sokoloff wrote: post #277
account42 wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Besides, America's poor have a higher standard of living than medieval kings. Only if you define the standard of living in a consumerist way.

Would you willingly swap your life (or the life of your child) for that of a medieval king? I sure wouldn’t.

Neither would I.

Re: The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics

#477

Post by _DeadFred_ »

landl0rd wrote: post #352
officialchicken wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Yes, except no DRAM maker is taking this as a signal to go deep... Incorrect. CXMT is taking this as a signal to open new fabs, create new products, develop new silicon manufacturing techniques, and enter the consumer market worldwide (except USA).

CXMT is a company with heavy state backing and control that started its current trajectory years and years ago. It has infinity money and isn’t allowed to go bankrupt. CXMT is reading political signals (Beijing wants indigenous AI up and down the vertical) as much as market.

Not sure "only the Chinese model can solve the normies pain" is a great look.

Lately consumers are told capitalism is cheap TVs, phones, and computers while housing, healthcare, education, energy, and food climbed further out of reach. The "bread" part of bread and circuses has shrunk dramatically, "but at least you're getting cheaper circuses" is what they've been saying.

Now you're saying only a heavily state-directed Chinese model is still willing to aggressively finance new fabs and meet demand to provide that? "Capitalism demands we don't expand capacity and don't meet demand' is kinda a tough sell after capitalism has been sold as expanding access. "Consolidation, maximal extraction, shareholder preservation, and AI" isn't going to be a winner. I get it makes business sense and wouldn't be a big deal in the past, but the rapidly changing dynamics hitting nearly every part of daily life across the entire economy feels destabilizing.

We're down to wearing dystopian sci-fi level cheap clothes, can't afford chips/sodas, candy/sweet treats have been enshitified to no longer be fulfilling, we can't afford to call an ambulance. Media is polarizing instead of mass media calming. Heck thrift stores are becoming unaffordable to the low end as the middle now resorts to them.

"You don't have the foods you are used to, decent clothing, shelter, health, or social cohesion but you have a sweet 6 year old phone and flock cameras keeping you safe". Jesus it feels... not good. Even cyberpunk dystopia understood you needed to at least jack people into something.

Re: The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics

#478

Post by WalterBright »

imtringued wrote: post #276
WalterBright wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

About 90% of the world lived in poverty before capitalism. Besides, America's poor have a higher standard of living than medieval kings.

People living with room mates working 80 hours a week have a higher standard of living than kings? Do you even listen to yourself?

Let's enumerate a few things:

1. Today's poor are as tall as rich people, meaning they get plenty of nutritious food. They're taller than medieval kings.

2. Fresh vegetables and fruit from all over the world 365 days a year.

3. Flush toilets.

4. Air conditioning

5. Central heating

6. Infinitely better medical care

7. Endless amazing entertainment at the push of a button

8. Can communicate with anyone in the world, for free

9. Anything you want to know, at the push of a button

10. Far better clothing

11. Cars you can drive anywhere

12. Fly at 30,000 feet in complete luxury across the country

13. Free education, in any field you want

14. Hot and cold running water

15. Hot showers

16. Microwave ovens

I can go on if you like.

Re: The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics

#479

Post by nashsimulator »

This is such a detailed article and lesson in manufacturing complex parts and their fixed costs vs variable costs accounting lesson, and a lesson in how a product we use daily goes through the manufacturing chain and its' price, availability etc.. is influenced by a complex chain of factors.. I agree with the top poster, the title is an undersell of the full article..

Re: The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics

#480

Post by mrandish »

officialchicken wrote: post #220
mrandish wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This has become like opec's best years Yes, except no DRAM maker is taking this as a signal to go deep into debt to double or triple capacity. It takes a minimum of 3+ years to dramatically increase capacity and no one expects this inflated demand bubble to last that long. Because they've seen this cycle before, they'll bump next gen capacity up a bit more than planned, maybe 15-25% because the current windfall pro…

> Yes, except no DRAM maker is taking this as a signal to go deep... Incorrect. CXMT is taking this as a signal to open new fabs, create new products, develop new silicon manufacturing techniques, and enter the consumer market worldwide (except USA).

> Incorrect.

Okay, you got me. I was reflecting the prudent way long-term players generally interpret the market. But from time to time external macro-economic and/or geopolitical factors may shift. Those changes may persist over time or eventually swing back like tides. Other times someone thinks they've got a new angle or a new technology (the RDRAM format was a notable attempt). Occasionally, the people who always say "But this time it's different" are lucky enough to actually say it one of the rare times it IS different.

Time will tell if CXMT's gambit will pay off. Even if it doesn't maybe their state sponsors will absorb the losses for other strategic reasons.

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