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The Companies Cutting Headcount for AI Will Lose to the Ones Who Didn't

libertas.software

161–170 of 218 posts

Re: The Companies Cutting Headcount for AI Will Lose to the Ones Who Didn't

#161
Does anybody else find this article reads really AI written? The way the argument is built, the emdashes, the dramatic one sentence paragraph:

"That assumption is wrong."

"The human is the equation. AI is what makes that equation run faster." -- what?

Re: The Companies Cutting Headcount for AI Will Lose to the Ones Who Didn't

#162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point is if a worker plus AI can do the work of two workers without AI, then why not keep both workers and have them both use AI to have the equivalent of four non-assisted workers?

Diminishing returns on additional labor.

[deleted]

Re: The Companies Cutting Headcount for AI Will Lose to the Ones Who Didn't

#163
post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI aside, if we just look at other engineering disciplines in mature sectors, the future is not bright(er). No fully paid golden cadillac benefits packages (for your dog too!), no twice daily uber eats comps, no $150k entry level, no unlimited PTO, no 6 months leave. If you go to your uncles engineering department at the boiler company, these guy's engineering roles are about as pampered as the warehouse managers. Th…

Two things: 1) Unlimited PTO is a scam. Ask anyone who ever got paid out six weeks salary when they changed jobs. 2) “the craft” is doing some heavy lifting here. I happen to enjoy AI-assisted dev, but it is nothing like the work that drew me to the industry. Otherwise agreed on all counts.

> Unlimited PTO is a scam

Well, no. It's just the target beneficiary is not you (the employees) but the employer.

Unlimited PTO resolves the employer from paying out PTO when they make you "redundant".

Re: The Companies Cutting Headcount for AI Will Lose to the Ones Who Didn't

#164

> Not because they have fewer costs. Because they have more capability. This kind of sentences are typically AI-generated. What’s the point of an article about AI generated by AI?

If the article is about the craft of writing, then no point. But if the article is about communicating ideas, AI is just the means the person with the ideas chose.

However, in this case I think both were fairly vacuous. Also, sentence fragments are a hallmark of bad writing that high school English teachers try to train you out of, apparently unsuccessfully if the training data makes them so likely.

Re: The Companies Cutting Headcount for AI Will Lose to the Ones Who Didn't

#165
post #59

I think the unfortunate reality is that lots of companies in our industry have suspiciously inflated employee counts in the first place. Even when removing AI and the pandemic over-hiring, I wouldn't have been surprised to see corrections sooner or later. Employee count seems to correlate to stock market incentives - which is how GitLab is like 5x larger than Valve.

> which is how GitLab is like 5x larger than Valve.

Doesn't Valve hire tons of contractors? I don't think anyone except them knows how many people/agencies they're paying to work on stuff like proton, linux, mesa, vulkan, etc., not to mention internal projects.

Valve could not actually do all that they do with just the leaked headcount numbers.

Re: The Companies Cutting Headcount for AI Will Lose to the Ones Who Didn't

#166
post #6

Preaching to the HN choir - great for upvotes but does anyone read anything new in this? Feels like I’ve seen the same article about this every month and I don’t think business people care.

Even if you hire more people into jobs where AI acts a multiplier, there are still going to have to be layoffs where AI basically makes certain jobs _redundant_. I think both things are happening and will continue to happen, and happened anytime new technology came out.

Re: The Companies Cutting Headcount for AI Will Lose to the Ones Who Didn't

#167
post #31

My pet theory is that AI enables programmers to be relatively more productive than other roles. So, if I want to grow my company, shouldn't I hire MORE programmers? Anyone know a good counterargument? Along another vein, I guess I wonder with my limited knowledge of economics if the demand for programmers is elastic or inelastic.

if constructing houses or buildings are quick, the bottleneck will be moved to other things. Like city planner, regulations / legals, material procurements, furnishing / equiments, etc.

for software it will be requirement gathering, product planning, looking for buyer / customer, even brainstorming on finding what to make.

Re: The Companies Cutting Headcount for AI Will Lose to the Ones Who Didn't

#169
post #59

I think the unfortunate reality is that lots of companies in our industry have suspiciously inflated employee counts in the first place. Even when removing AI and the pandemic over-hiring, I wouldn't have been surprised to see corrections sooner or later. Employee count seems to correlate to stock market incentives - which is how GitLab is like 5x larger than Valve.

I think it’s simplest to view these companies 2020s layoffs cycles through the lens of a political battle between executives and middle managers. Middle managers always want to grow ICs because it’s their main stake to higher title and more pay. Executives are the intermitten contra to this, with their incentive being tied to the stock (high growth at high margins). AI gave executives more leverage, productivity had gone up so they could fire more without compromising operations.

Its also notable that over the last few decades the business community has normalized layoffs and layoffs while highly profitable as net positive for the company (stock). While all the engineering driven companies, GE, Boeing, etc that pioneered this management philosophy end up in strategic decline.

Re: The Companies Cutting Headcount for AI Will Lose to the Ones Who Didn't

#170

The companies cutting headcount because of AI often just aren’t creative enough to expand their portfolio. There, I said it. Today, even someone with minimal context can ship end-to-end prototypes. That means existing employees, the people with actual domain knowledge should be able to innovate faster than ever. Anthropic has shipped one of the best coding agents on the market and still has hundreds of engineering ro…

This right here. Big companies laying off engineers are basically saying our backlogs are empty and we're out of ideas. This should represent opportunity for small/mid companies to finally compete with the large competitors as some of the advantages of scale are normalized.
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