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AI has a multiplying effect on existing technical skills
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Re: AI has a multiplying effect on existing technical skills
#12An "elephant in the room" is a big topic that no one is talking about. Everyone is talking about AI.
Better headline: "Why AI Multiplies Developer Skills Rather Than Replacing Them"
Re: AI has a multiplying effect on existing technical skills
#13> the most talented developers I know amplify what they can do with AI
Not the most talented developer, but this has been pretty much my experience as well. Just keep it under control, know what and why its doing at every step, read the code, and then it will boost your productivity.
Re: AI has a multiplying effect on existing technical skills
#14I see this as a much more solid and mature take than those who "boo" about AI taking their jobs.
Re: AI has a multiplying effect on existing technical skills
#15I don't agree, LLMs/AI does definitely have agency.
Maybe not the same agency you would expect from a human being, but if you put them in a ralph loop they can go far, far away, and mostly because on how we build our world in the pre-llm era: do you need to order something (or you want to hire a hitman)? -> you can go do it on a web site or via whatsapp or by calling some API.
Re: AI has a multiplying effect on existing technical skills
#16I had an Iron Man moment last week where I was “vibe coding” a UI design with component tests live on the other screen. Iterating by asking it to move things, reduce emphasis of an element, exploring layout options, etc. The loop was near realtime and felt amazing. The code it generated was awful. The kind of garbage that people who don’t know any better would ship: it looked right and it worked. But it was instantly…
I feel the same but the question I struggle most with is this: "Does it matter when the people who are going to come along and maintain this are just going to use AI to fix or adjust this maintenance nightmare?"
Re: AI has a multiplying effect on existing technical skills
#17[dead]
Re: AI has a multiplying effect on existing technical skills
#18I agree with the author that -- right now -- we're still in the part of the AI adoption / product development curve that it's an extreme force multiplier.
I like to think of it as a normal distribution, the further away a programmer is to the right of the mean, the more their benefit. It's almost like it's their standard deviation squared (σ²). So someone like Matt Perry (as OP mentioned), who is a >99.99% programmer for argument's sake and is therefore four standard deviations away from the mean... Matt gets a (4×4) 16x multiplying effect on their productivity.
Someone who is a slightly above average programmer might see a 2 or 3x boost on their productivity, which is huge(!) and might also make them fear for their job. Which tracks with the level of moral panic we are seeing and experiencing. This math kinda still holds up for "bad programmers" too (i.e. left of the mean), as in they still see a boost to their productivity (negative squared is a positive number)... but there's something iffy about their results. The technical debt is unmaintainable and because they don't _understand_ the systems that they're operating in, they end up in the "3 hour" prompt loops that the OP refers to.
> Similarly, if Matt Perry handed me the keys to the Motion repository and told me to take over, I wouldn’t have the same results even though I have access to the same set of LLM tools.
The question is -- how long is this multiplier going to exist for? Some people would wager "for the foreseeable long-term future"; some people think it will widen further; and some people think it will diminish or god forbid even collapse. It feels like most arguments at the moment (like this article's) are that the humans who "know what they are doing" will be able to baton the hatches and avoid being usurped by ever-capable models. I saw it in a café yesterday: someone was using a coding agent to build a marketing website for their project, getting more and more frustrated by not getting the outcome they wanted. Their friend typed a couple of sentences on their keyboard and got a "Dude! How did you do that? That was sick!" a minute or so later. "I used to build websites" the friend said. -- The friend 'knew what they were doing'.
How much longer is knowing what you're doing going to be a moat?
Re: AI has a multiplying effect on existing technical skills
#19I had an Iron Man moment last week where I was “vibe coding” a UI design with component tests live on the other screen. Iterating by asking it to move things, reduce emphasis of an element, exploring layout options, etc. The loop was near realtime and felt amazing. The code it generated was awful. The kind of garbage that people who don’t know any better would ship: it looked right and it worked. But it was instantly…
Tangent: I never learned how to make the sorts of websites people find "professional" or "pretty" I could make functional and easy-to-use webapps, but not something people would think looks good or like something they would want to use. LLMs crushed this, without performance overhead; can still be HTML/CSS/targetted JS.
Re: AI has a multiplying effect on existing technical skills
#20I had an Iron Man moment last week where I was “vibe coding” a UI design with component tests live on the other screen. Iterating by asking it to move things, reduce emphasis of an element, exploring layout options, etc. The loop was near realtime and felt amazing. The code it generated was awful. The kind of garbage that people who don’t know any better would ship: it looked right and it worked. But it was instantly…
> The code it generated was awful.
I suppose you could solve that in two ways. Manually rewrite it as you did. Or formalize an architecture and let the AI rewrite it with that in mind. I suspect that either works.